mahnamahna

Creed, MJ2 and Good Dinosaur just might perform similarly to how everyone thought JW/IO/Ted 2 would over June 26-28 (all $45-55 million 3 day). Only difference is that Good Dinosaur could do $60-70 million for the 3 day, also. Might be what wakes up the 2015 box office before SW7

The Good Dinosaur: $60 million ($87 million) Creed: $41 million ($59 million) - very conservative predict, since it could do huge business today Victor Frankenstein: $6 million ($10 million)

$16 million $11.5 million $26 million $24.5 million $13.5million $91.5 million 5 day for Good Dinosaur $14 million $10.5 million $21 million $19 million $11 million $75.5 million 5 day for Creed (not even that outlandish considering past Thanksgiving frames ) $13.5 million $10.5 million $21 million $19 million $11 million $75 million 5 day for MJ2 Would be a well-rounded top 3 plus Peanuts/Spectre holding well. Although my Creed prediction may be far too ambitious lol

Very smart. Creed, MJ2 and Good Dinosaur should combine for $150 million+ over the 5 day plus holdovers. There'd be no real room for The Martian. October 2nd was perfect with everything except Bridge of Spies and Goosebumps bombing hard

That had the Marvel tie in and a better preview date (Thursday vs Tuesday) With a Wednesday opening, Good Dinosaur should do somewhere between $80-100 million The real story is Creed... How big will Creed be this weekend? Its previews are bigger than any other major opener over Thanksgiving (Frozen, GD, Muppets, Tangled, Enchanted, etc) There's no real precedent for a major adult-skewing film opening over Thanksgiving, either. I don't think it'll be that frontloaded due to the kind of film and it's excellent reviews, but $55 million+ for the 5-day would be amazing would Blind Side's $57 million 5-day reasonable to expect?

That was also gritty and rated R. Creed is looking to be a PG-13 crowd-pleaser. I agree that $100 million 5 day is pretty much impossible though. $60-70 million is the best case for its 5 day and even that's very unlikely lol

Creed and Good Dinosaur should hold the best against SW7. MJ2, Spectre, Krampus, Heart of Sea and Frankenstein target SW7's demo to some degree. Creed looks like a leggy WOM hit in the making, while Good Dinosaur is going to end up being paired with SW7 in double features. And if SW7 really does $250 million+ OW, GD and to a lesser extent Alvin 4/Creed will benefit from potentially thousands of sellouts across the nation that weekend is looking like $300 million+ possibly.

^yep Even with 50-70% drops all around over Dec 18-20, GD, Creed, Heart of the Sea and MJ2 should all rebound from the previous weekend. And Alvin 4/Sisters could have a 100-150% increase from their OWs if they only open to $5-6 million each.

WB's also given it a great marketing campaign, similar to their other adult-skewing crowdpleasers The Blind Side and American Sniper. Wouldn't be shocked at a $50 million 5-day+ with MJ2 underperforming, Spectre/Peanuts being pretty much finished, everything else in November bombing, Victor Frankenstein being another bomb, and Good Dinosaur targeting a different demographic/possibly doing less than Frozen's 5-day. Would be interesting if it gets $150 million+ DOM... nostalgia + critical acclaim has been a recipe for success this year.

Too bad the film won't get any serious Oscar talk except Stallone and possibly Sound Editing/Mixing. Would be nice to see it get some major nominations if the acclaim isn't over-hyping it.

The one where Krampus is tracking higher than Unfriended and The Visit 11/25-11/29 The Good Dinosaur: $79 million/$110 million Mockingjay Part 2: $49 million/$73 million ($193 million) Creed: $42 million/$60 million Spectre: $12 million/$17.5 million ($175 million) The Peanuts Movie: $11 million/$16.5 million ($118 million) The Night Before: $7.5 million/$11 million ($23 million) Victor Frankenstein: $6 million/$10 million Spotlight: $5.5 million/$8.5 mililon ($16 million) Secret in Their Eyes: $4.5 million/$7 million ($15 million) Love the Coopers: $3.5 million/$5.5 million ($22 million) The Martian: $3 million/$4.5 million ($218 million) The 33: $1.5 million/$2.5 million ($13 million) 12/4-12/6 The Good Dinosaur: $38 million ($161 million) Krampus: $23 million Mockingjay Part 2: $22.5 million ($226 million) Creed: $21 million ($92 million) Spectre: $6 million ($184 million) The Peanuts Movie: $5 million ($124 million) The Night Before: $4.5 million ($30 million) Spotlight: $3.5 million ($21 million) Victor Frankenstein: $3 million ($14 million) Love the Coopers: $2.5 million ($26 million) 12/11-12/13 The Good Dinosaur: $31.5 million ($202 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $25.5 million Krampus: $17 million ($49 million) Creed: $15 million ($114 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $13 million ($246 million) Legend: $5.5 million ($9 million) Spotlight: $4.5 million ($28 million) The Peanuts Movie: $4 million ($129 million) The Night Before: $3.5 million ($35 million) Spectre: $3 million ($189 million)

^^this Even with both underperforming, they'll still make a lot more than what a single Mockingjay film would have done

11/25-11/29 The Good Dinosaur: $78 million/$110 million Mockingjay Part 2: $53.5 million/$74 million ($191 million) Creed: $38 million/$55 million Spectre: $10.5 million/$15.5 million ($172 million) The Peanuts Movie: $10 million/$15 million ($115 million) The Night Before: $9 million/$13 million ($26 million) Spotlight: $7 million/$10 million ($17 million) Victor Frankenstein: $6 million/$10 million Secret in Their Eyes: $4 million/$6 million ($14 million) Love the Coopers: $3.5 million/$5.5 million ($22 million) The Martian: $3 million/$4.5 million ($218 million) Brooklyn: $2.5 million/$3.5 million ($6 million) 12/4-12/6 The Good Dinosaur: $37 million ($160 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $24 million ($227 million) Krampus: $22 million Creed: $17 million ($80 million) The Night Before: $6 million ($35 million) Spectre: $5.5 million ($180 million) Spotlight: $4 million ($23 million) The Peanuts Movie: $4 million ($120 million) Victor Frankenstein: $3 million ($14 million) Love the Coopers: $2.5 million ($26 million) 12/11-12/13 The Good Dinosaur: $30.5 million ($200 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $23 million Krampus: $17 million ($48 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $16 million ($251 million) Creed: $12 million ($98 million) The Night Before: $5 million ($42 million) Spotlight: $4.5 million ($30 million) Legend: $3.5 million Spectre: $3 million ($184 million) The Peanuts Movie: $3 million ($123 million) 12/18-12/20 Star Wars Episode VII: $260.5 million The Good Dinosaur: $15 million ($220 million) Sisters: $8.5 million Krampus: $7 million ($60 million) Alvin 4: $6.5 million Mockingjay Part 2: $6 million ($260 million) Creed: $5 million ($106 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $4.5 million ($32 million) Spotlight: $2.5 million ($34 million) The Night Before: $2 million ($45 million) 12/25-12/27 Star Wars Episode VII: $140 million ($511 million) Daddy's Home: $24 million The Good Dinosaur: $20.5 million ($259 million) Joy: $20 million Sisters: $12 million ($31 million) Alvin 4: $11 million ($27 million) Concussion: $10 million The Big Short: $7.5 million ($13 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $7 million ($273 million) Point Break: $5.5 million Creed: $5 million ($115 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $4 million ($40 million) 1/1-1/3 Star Wars Episode VII: $104 million ($717 million) Daddy's Home: $18 million ($66 million) The Good Dinosaur: $17 million ($297 million) Joy: $16 million ($56 million) Sisters: $10 million ($53 million) Alvin 4: $9.5 million ($48 million) Concussion: $8 million ($28 mililon) The Big Short: $6 million ($26 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $5.5 million ($285 million) Creed: $4 million ($124 million) Point Break: $3 million ($14 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $2.5 million ($47 million)

WB has a good track record of adult-skewing crowd-pleasers over the last decade (Blind Side, American Sniper)... and with MJ2 underperforming, there's room for Creed and Good Dinosaur to overperform this next week. With the great reviews and minimal competition (Spectre's 4th weekend of $10-13 million... Spotlight doing $6-8 million possibly.... Martian/BoS combining for $4.5-5 million) , Creed ought to be able to do at least $30 million 5-day. I'm thinking $45-55 million - the box office is due for another breakout hit.

Inside Out The Peanuts Movie Mission Impossible - Rogue Nation The Martian The Intern Paddington Minions Jurassic World Hotel Transylvania 2 Pixels Ant-Man Avengers: Age of Ultron McFarland, USA SpongeBob 2 Get Hard Tomorrowland Vacation The Wedding Ringer Kingsman Hot Pursuit Unfriended Hot Tub Time Machine 2 Mortdecai Need to See: Still Alice Cinderella It Follows Furious 7 Ex Machina Far From the Maddening Crowd Mad Max - Fury Road When Marnie Was There San Andreas Spy Me and Earl and the Dying Girl Dope Trainwreck Mr. Holmes Paper Towns A LEGO Brickumentary Shaun the Sheep Movie The Gift Straight Outta Compton War Room The Visit Black Mass Captive Everest Sicario 99 Homes The Walk Steve Jobs Bridge of Spies Goosebumps Room Beasts of No Nation Spotlight Brooklyn Mockingjay Part 2 Carol The Good Dinosaur Creed Krampus In the Heart of the Sea The Big Short Star Wars - The Force Awakens Sisters Daddy's Home Joy The Revenant

If audiences wanted to see MJ2, they wouldn't let a film 28 days away keep them from seeing it. Even if SW7 is going to be huge, that doesn't mean nothing can do well in November. Creed, Good Dinosaur and even Krampus should do well before SW7 opens. And I'm thinking everything holds spectacularly the weekend before SW7 causes 60%+ drops for the whole top 10

No way Spectre and Night Before drop that bad over a holiday frame. Spectre should drop 25-30% while Night Before should drop 10-20% due to its small OW and Christmas theme. Also Creed isn't opening that softly with how strong its buzz has been, the Rocky branding and its excellent reviews. More likely to make $11 million its opening day than $11 million over the 3 day.

More like Pixar and Rocky Both of those should do well over $100 million combined for the 5 day... plus MJ2 doing $50 million+ for the 5 day, Spectre and Peanuts holding over, Spotlight expanding even more. Thanksgiving won't be bad and Krampus could potentially do $20-25 million on A usually dead weekend. I am ready for a $230-270 million OW though...

That's because Creed is in the comparison lol. $35 million would be excellent for it. Without Creed, I'd have said $70 million+ 5-day after seeing how empty the BO will be beyond the top 3, I think there's still plenty of room for Creed to break out and for GD to become a monster $300 million+ hit. For next weekend, I'm thinking The Good Dinosaur: $80 million/$125 million MJ2: $60 million/$86 million ($215 million) Creed: $36 million/$55 million Spectre: $12.5 million/$17 million ($174 million) The Peanuts Movie: $10.5 million/$15 million ($116 million) The Night Before: $8.5 million/$12 million ($24 million) Spotlight: $8 million/$11 million ($20 million) Victor Frankenstein: $6 million/$10 million The Secret in Their Eyes: $4.5 million/$6.5 million ($15 million) Love the Coopers: $4 million/$6 million ($24 million) The Martian: $3 million/$4.5 million ($219 million) Bridge of Spies: $2.25 million/$3.25 million ($70 million)

But neither of those were true competition for the Hunger Games demo. MJ2 - teens Good Dinosaur - kids/families Creed - adults All 3 can coexist next week and do $35 million+ for the 5-day if audiences want to see Creed and GD and MJ2.

The franchise has improved the multi with each film. MJ1 got 2.75x roughly. A 2.8x-2.85x for MJ2 gets it $308-312 million DOM. I wouldn't say MJ2 is on its way to sub-$300 million quite yet. If it drops 55-60% next weekend and the weekend after, then I'd agree. But its softer OW could mean a sub-50% drop over the Thanksgiving frame (46-48%). And maybe 50-55% over the post-Thanksgiving frame instead of 60-62%. Plus a 30-35% drop before SW7 wrecks everything in its path. I'm being optimistic, but there's no real evidence to suggest MJ2 will drop any harsher than the previous films. Even a 2.7x (slightly less than MJ1) gets it just over $300 million. Finishing 7th for the year would be surprising, though.

With the ever-improving multis of the Hunger Games films, this should still finish $300 million+ DOM. But finishing below Good Dinosaur DOM would be a shocker IMO - especially since most weren't expecting $350-380 million DOM for it (general range for MJ2 predicts). Interested to see if Creed and Good Dinosaur perform well next week.

1. Mockingjay Part 2: $144 million 2. Spectre: $20 million ($161 million) 3. The Peanuts Movie: $16 million ($102 million) 4. The Night Before: $14.5 million 5. Love the Coopers: $6 million ($17 million) 6. The Martian: $4.5 million ($214 million) 7. The Secret in Their Eyes: $3.5 million 8. Bridge of Spies: $3 million ($66 million) 9. Goosebumps: $2.5 million ($76 million) 10. The 33: $2.5 million ($10 million) 11/25-11/29 1. The Good Dinosaur: $80.5 million/$125 million 2. Mockingjay Part 2: $72 million/$105 million ($270 million) 3. Creed: $28 million/$42 million 4. Spectre: $15 million/$22 million ($188 million) 5. The Peanuts Movie: $13 million/$19 million ($125 million) 6. The Night Before: $12 million/$17 million ($35 million) 7. Victor Frankenstein: $7 million/$11.5 million 8. Love the Coopers: $4.5 million/$7 million ($26 million) 9. The Martian: $4 million/$6 million ($221 million) 10. Bridge of Spies: $2.5 million/$4 million ($71 million) 12/4-12/6 The Good Dinosaur: $36 million ($173 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $28 million ($312 million) Krampus: $21 million Creed: $13.5 million ($62 million) The Night Before: $8 million ($47 million) Spectre: $7 million ($199 million) The Peanuts Movie: $6 million ($132 million) Love the Coopers: $3 million ($30 million) Victor Frankenstein: $2.5 million ($15 million) The Martian: $2 million ($224 million) 12/11-12/13 The Good Dinosaur: $28 million ($210 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $19.5 million Mockingjay Part 2: $18 million ($339 million) Krampus: $14 million ($42 million) Creed: $10 million ($77 million) The Night Before: $6.5 million ($57 million) The Peanuts Movie: $4.5 million ($137 million) Spectre: $4 million ($205 million) Legend: $3.5 million ($5 million) Love the Coopers: $2.5 million ($34 million) 12/18-12/20 Star Wars Episode VII: $223 million The Good Dinosaur: $14 million ($228 million) Sisters: $12 million Mockingjay Part 2: $8 million ($351 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks - The Road Chip: $7.5 million Krampus: $7 million ($53 million) Creed: $4.5 million ($84 million) The Night Before: $3 million ($62 million) Spectre: $2 million ($208 million) The Peanuts Movie: $1.5 million ($139 million) 12/25-12/27 Star Wars Episode VII: $142 million ($475 million) Joy: $20.5 million Daddy's Home: $19 million The Good Dinosaur: $16.5 million ($258 million) Concussion: $13.5 million Sisters: $13 million ($37 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks - The Road Chip: $10.5 million ($28 million) The Big Short: $7.5 million ($13 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $7 million ($364 million) Point Break: $6 million Krampus: $5 million ($62 million) Creed: $3.5 million ($91 million)

11/13-11/15 The Peanuts Movie: $33 million ($99 million) Spectre: $32 million ($127 million) The 33: $12 million Love the Coopers: $11 million The Martian: $8 million ($210 million) Goosebumps: $5.5 million ($75 million) Bridge of Spies: $5 million ($63 million) My All-American: $3 million Hotel Transylvania 2: $2.5 million ($165 million) Burnt: $2 million ($13 million) 11/20-11/22 Mockingjay Part 2: $163 million The Peanuts Movie: $22 million ($128 million) The Night Before: $17 million Spectre: $14 million ($148 million) Love the Coopers: $7 million ($22 million) The 33: $6 million ($21 million) The Martian: $4 million ($216 million) Bridge of Spies: $3.5 million ($68 million) The Secrets in Their Eyes: $3 million Goosebumps: $2.5 million ($78 million) 11/25-11/29 The Good Dinosaur: $80.5 million/$126 million Mockingjay Part 2: $78 million/$118.5 million ($304 million) Creed: $28 million/$41 million The Peanuts Movie: $18.5 million/$26 million ($158 million) The Night Before: $14 million/$19 million ($39 million) Spectre: $10.5 million/$14.5 million ($165 million) Victor Frankenstein: $7 million/$11 million Love the Coopers: $6 million/$9 million ($33 million) The 33: $3.5 million/$5.5 million ($28 million) The Martian: $3 million/$4.5 million ($221 million) 12/4-12/6 The Good Dinosaur: $37 million ($177 million) Mockingjay Part 2: $30.5 million ($349 million) Creed: $14.5 million ($62 million) Krampus: $12 million The Night Before: $9 million ($53 million) The Peanuts Movie: $8.5 million ($168 million) Spectre: $5.5 million ($173 million) Love the Coopers: $3.5 million ($38 million) Victor Frankenstein: $3 million ($16 million) The Martian: $1.5 million ($223 million) 12/11-12/13 The Good Dinosaur: $28 million ($214 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $22.5 million Mockingjay Part 2: $20 million ($379 million) Creed: $11 million ($78 million) Krampus: $8 million ($24 million) The Night Before: $7.5 million ($64 million) The Peanuts Movie: $6.5 million ($176 million) Legend: $4.5 million ($8 million) Spectre: $3.5 million ($178 million) Love the Coopers: $2.5 million ($42 million) 12/18-12/20 Star Wars Episode VII: $206 million The Good Dinosaur: $17 million ($237 million) Sisters: $13 million Mockingjay Part 2: $8.5 million ($392 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks - The Road Chip: $8 million Creed: $7 million ($89 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $6.5 million ($33 million) Krampus: $4.5 million ($31 million) The Night Before: $4 million ($70 million) The Peanuts Movie: $2.5 million ($179 million) 12/25-12/27 Star Wars Episode VII: $127 million ($437 million) The Good Dinosaur: $19.5 million ($273 million) Joy: $18.5 million Daddy's Home: $16 million Concussion: $12.5 million Sisters: $12 million ($36 million) The Big Short: $11 million ($14 million) Alvin and the Chipmunks - The Road Chip: $10 million ($28 million) Point Break: $8 million Mockingjay Part 2: $7 million ($406 million) Creed: $5 million ($99 million) In the Heart of the Sea: $4.5 million ($41 million) Krampus: $3 million ($37 million) The Night Before: $3 million ($76 million) The Peanuts Movie: $2.5 million ($184 million)

Because it's a well-reviewed, well-liked Best Picture contender in its 6th weekend - and 19% is the kind of hold those types of films tend to have. It's also after a weekend where Saturday fell on Halloween and muted increases. Not to mention it, Bridge of Spies and Goosebumps are the only other semi-major films to go see other than Spectre and Peanuts. 19% would be incredible in its 2nd or 3rd weekend, but in an adult drama's 6th weekend, sub-25% is kind of expected if it has decent WOM. For example, Bridge of Spies should have a sub-25% drop next week, and The Martian should have another one, because The 33 is the only semi-major film next week. I will agree that sub-20% is excellent though, considering it lost IMAX theaters to Spectre.