RyneOh1040
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Posts posted by RyneOh1040
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Let's go right in the middle and say it does 75.
Using Mockingjay comps (which I think FB should hold a bit better) we get something like:
M - 6.84
T - 9.09
W - 10.9
TH - 8.18
F - 16.85
S - 16
SU - 8.32
That gets it to 151.18 by next Sunday. I don't see any reason why it should hold as poorly as TMJ2 did but I think this give us an idea of the absolute floor. I can't see it missing 200 even with all of the competition until Rogue One.
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That is honestly a really strong OD in comparison to the preview (29%) and is almost an identical percentage to DS. I want a Saturday number before I get my hopes to high but maybe this is going to be much less frontloaded than the Potters were and play better over a longer period of time. Thanksgiving can't do anything but help.
If it were to follow similar comps to DS it would look something like:
30
28.8
19
77.8 OW.
Until we get Saturday numbers I would say the range is anywhere from 72-80.
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42 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:
Fantastic Beasts should finish a lot closer to $30m for Friday.
Moonlight is also way under estimated.
JOLLY GOOD.
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I think all things considered this is a solid number. It's a new franchise that sold itself solely on the wizarding world brand. Clearly from the preview to full day number it didn't pull in a lot of the hardcore fans but maybe that's a good sign of things to come in terms of legs with this having less of a rush factor. I think the quality of the film is there for WOM to kick in. I haven't lost hope for 200 yet and I think if nothing else WB will be pleased with this to have full confidence going forward.
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2 hours ago, grey ghost said:
Looks like the tracking the days before Friday for 85-95 m were too optimistic.
Probably got inflated by ticket sales.
But I gotta wonder how big the Saturday and Sunday drop will be.
Pretty sure 75 is right where tracking was. At least it was what THR had it at.
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21 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
I'm with you. I would use the word dark as well.
Spoileralong with the fact that when kids were 'suppressing' the magical gene they were killed and turned into violent apparitions that murdered people. i can imagine explaining that to an 8-10 year old time and having a very tough time.
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Any updates since THR estimated 30?
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Hell yes! I will definitely take 30 OD with that preview number. WE OUT HERE POTTERHEADS
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Anecdotal I know, but the IMAX showing for 7pm tonight is actually about 20% fuller than it was at this point yesterday. Not far from being sold out (my showing last night at 7 was probably 75-80% full).
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2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
It's not doing poorly. I'm saying it now. It's easily going to gross $750M WW. I mean, that's pretty good. Just below expectations. If it grosses sub-$200M DOM, that's not poor but it ain't what WB wants either. Set the next installment in Gotham with Newt and Bats working alongside one another. Win, win.
this is perspective.
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2 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:
This is not a Harry Potter film. This is a Fantastic Beasts film. We don't know how stable this series is yet but frankly the reception to this event among the hardcore hasn't been what it needed to be for me to be confident about stability.
People seem to think that just because it's set in the same universe, it'll follow the same rules as the main series. Nope. Same universe, different franchises.
I don't disagree with you but there are too sides of that coin. You can't say it's doing poorly (when a new franchise that started with a 70+ million opener would be heralded) and then in the same sentence bash it for not reaching the heights of the second highest grossing franchise of all time. People need to pick a lane. That's all I'm saying.
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8 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:
The next 4 films will drop bigly though. This first film needed to be a knockout hit.
But what do you define knockout hit as? 300? Because VERY few people here predicted that (if anyone predicted it at all). That's my point, to WB, I'm not sure there's a massive difference in 215-225 domestic or 250-275 domestic. Not in the grand scheme of things. If International numbers put up I think this will be around where they thought, even if it's on the lower end. But for them lower end is still a hit. And we have no clue what to expect in terms of future reception. WOM seems to be quite good so it could be a consistent performer that stays relatively flat. Everyone seems to be eager to compare this in terms of the Potter franchise and how it wont reach it's heights, then lets compare it in terms of stability and consistency (which the Potter films ALWAYS were). Maybe we'll see that here where numbers don't vary much from film to film. We simply don't know and until we're at a point where have a base idea of where this will land for the weekend I think people need to step back.
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I think we, like Hermione in DH1, have to remember perspective. IF this can still open around 75 million it comes it right at where tracking had it. I think some of us wanted this to touch Potter OW numbers and that may be have been out of touch. A 75 OW, and 200+ would, IMO, be enough to keep the series on track for 5 films. WB is in desperate enough shape in terms of franchises (with DC response being mild) to want to have another 600-700 WW grosser per year. Also, if the sequels can do more to tie in Hogwarts/Dumbledore it might peak more interest for the Potterheads. I know at least 4 friends who love the series and havent seen this yet (and arent seeing it OW). The rush just isn't there and if they can do more to tie it back in with the original characters and settings maybe some of the later entries can get a bump. Again just my thoughts but I think their relationship with JK is important (especially with a potential Cursed Child series) and reviews are good enough that even if this comes in on the lower end of expectations they'll be happy.
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1 minute ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:
Jesus Christ, and I thought that MJ2 was a flop last year. It actually may not even surpass Divergent's total despite having 3D, insane.
lol this is nuts. There is no way this misses 150. Even if it opens to 'only' 70 there's no reason it would have a 2 multiplier over the holidays. Zero chance. The number is lower than I wanted but we all need to calm down and see how this plays out. If it truly does end up in the lower 60 range that's when we panic.
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People will always give Tyler Perry shit but you cannot deny that the man knows his audience and gives them what they want. I have three or four friends who have seen MH and all of have said it's one of his best. He's doing the same thing with the OWN network where his shows consistently top not only the network but are sometimes the highest rated cable shows of the night. You could make a strong argument that Madea has as much star power as anyone else there over the past decade...
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That's quite strong for The Accountant. Could have easily opened in the 10-12 million range.
Also huge for Inferno. I had forgotten how big the last two films were overseas.
Got to experience the first three potter movies in IMAX yesterday and man oh man did it get me HYPE for FB.
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I know August/Sept are supposed to be pretty dead months but I have to say my two favorite films of the year have come out during that time fram (Kubo and Don't Think Twice)
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Jane Levy is so damn good in this.
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1 hour ago, filmlover said:
Friday Night Lights.
BLESS YOU.
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Saw this last night. Hands down, far and away, my favorite film of the year so far.
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We also can't forget the fact that its essentially Halloween weekend. I think Paramount knew they had an inferior product on their hands (or at least positioned themselves to be cushioned if that was the case) and are just going to try to make as much as they can in 3 days.
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13 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:
Difference between this and Blair Witch is Blair Witch actually looks terrifying.
i don't disagree but that I don't see that being the response of the GA, at least for OW. And as I suspected its already nationally trending on Twitter. It's not whether or not it actually looks scary, its the fact that people have the chance to be scared again but what is a modern classic in the horror genre. I think the film will be absolutely shit, and thats not what I'm disagreeing on but everyone here is equating the quality of that trailer with how the GA will respond and I think this brand is bigger than that.
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Could definitely seeing it having less than a 2 multiplier and pulling something like 32/55. Also think the release date will make the first 3 days pull in over 65-70% of its total gross.
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IDK, I do agree with you guys on the feel of the trailer and agree that overall it looks pretty bad. But I think the market is craving something like this, I think its the same thing Blair Witch will bank on as well, a since of horror nostalgia. I legit believe the OW for this will be 25+. But unlike all the goodwill BW has going for it this will absolutely crumble after OW.
Weekend Numbers: Fantastic Beasts 75M, Strange 17.6M, Trolls 17.5M, Arrival 11.8M, Edge of 17 4.8M, Bleed 2.35M, Billy Lynn 930k
in Numbers and Data
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oddly enough same here. and many from friends who were just casual fans of the HP series.