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RyneOh1040

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Posts posted by RyneOh1040

  1. 1 hour ago, CJohn said:

    The true DiCaprio draw power. A movie where literally nothing else looked appealing besides the lead actor. Similar cases include Wedding Ringer, Joy and Tammy. And we can talk a lot about Denzel's mightiness, but 2 Guns barely did 75M and that also had Walhberg (another proven draw in the right movie). Draw power nowadays is very hard to evaluate and tbh almost existence. You need to pair the right actor with the right premise/story. 

    Tammy hurt McCarthy's brand a lot and we saw that in Spy's results.

    maybe.  i don't know, i just didn't think spy was that great.  After I saw it I couldn't believe it's RT score.  Statham was my favorite part of the film but I guess I just went in with really high expectations after all of the buzz.  

     

    But even if I was in the minority and I think I am I would expect with Spy's positive reception and GG noms only help.  Though I'm not sure I even agree that a female getting a comedy to 110 domestic is evidence of the audience shying away from her.

    • Like 2
  2. 32 minutes ago, CJohn said:

    Melissa McCarthy's real draw power is seen in Tammy. Denzel's real draw power is seen in The Equalizer. 

     

    In Safe House and Identity Thief they are both paired with Reynolds and Bateman, respectively. Also, both of those movies are good.

    I agree with McCarthy.  The fact that she got audiences to the absolute POS Tammy was after the also POS Identity Thief really proves she gets her demo in the seats.  I LIKED Spy, did not LOVE Spy (and was confused with its universal acclaim) but if she could get in something with a screenplay similar to the greatness of Bridesmaid I think McCarthy could put a comedy over 200.

    • Like 1
  3. 19 minutes ago, BoxOfficeChica said:

     

    Yep, here in the US, the ads/trailers were pretty muddled and if anything, for a long time they seemed to be hiding the mop aspect, even though everyone knew it was about JLaw playing the Miracle Mop lady, yet they'd rather show her with a rifle or De Niro wisecracking. What? The best trailer I saw for it was from the UK, it seemed a lot more focused about a woman making a success for herself despite the odds. The US ads eventually got around to selling that angle but the advertising could have been a lot more focused. I would put its domestic OD down to JLaw/Home Shopping fans turning out (Joy Mangano did a lot of appearances/press for the film as well) than the fact that it was such an easy sell here. Star power can only do so much for the overall box office; ultimately people have to like what they see. The budget is high for the sort of movie it is, but without JLaw, maybe the studio doesn't want to make Joy at all and it never gets made.

     

    I definitely remember a sermon about Avatar trying to sway the unknowing masses away from Christianity. My mom (who pretty much only goes to the theaters for stuff like Courageous and War Room or "uplifting" racial moves) knew I'd seen Avatar and wanted to grill me about its religious content. She seemed somewhat placated to know it was set on another planet, presumably where they didn't have Bibles and wouldn't automatically be condemned to hell for not being Christian. I don't think the religious backlash will be as big of a problem for Avatar 2 as much of the world simply moving on from the story after so many years.

    thank you!  everything you said is spot on.  I remember the rifle shot in the trailer really throwing me off and then when i saw the film being like 'why the HELL did they use that in the marketing?!'.  completely agree.

    • Like 2
  4. 6 hours ago, Caesar said:

    It's an easy sell because it's a true story about a self made success, those types of stories sell well, which is why it had a good OD (in fact after its OD many on here were declaring how big of a success it was and suggesting that it would do American Hustle numbers). The fact that the movie immediately began having worse holds than all of its comparable movies and has continued that pattern throughout its first week shows that it is the WOM reception of the movie that is problem.

    I saw NO ONE on here declare that after OD.  All I remember was you saying it had bad WOM after one day of numbers.  You keep saying it's an easy sell, but go back and watch the trailer.  There's really nothing there about someone being a self made success. You point to that being the reason for a good OD while I would argue it's because it's the new Jennifer Lawrence movie.  I don't think WOM is great, but my viewing seemed to enjoy it.

  5. I am so confused at what people here expected Joy to do.  'It's only going to make 80 or so'.  Shit, for the kind of film this is thats great.  I know the budget is 60, but this was never going to make much more than 100, no matter the budget.  It was a really tough sell, that got mild reviews and a crowded market.  No other actress could have gotten the film to half that in a similar situation.  Did people really expect a story about the Miracle Mop to put up American Hustle numbers!?

    • Like 2
  6. Just got out of Sisters.  I'm a HUGE Fey/Poehler fan, and really like Paula Pell's writing.  Overall, it's good not great.  It has its moments where it's really firing on all cylinders but other parts feel a bit played out.  It's also got to the be the longest party scene a film has ever had, ha.  A lot of great supporting characters and cameos that sometimes feel underused.

     

    Solid B+.  I do think it's much stronger than Baby Mama if that means anything to you.

     

    Truth be told, I could only think about seeing Star Wars a third time as we left.

    • Like 5
  7. 1 hour ago, Caesar said:

    True Grit held well actually for the comparable movies. Django and Les Mis both dropped hard and in line with their comparable movies. I will give you Benjamin Button but that movie had an unusual story, I would expect it to take time for it to gain attention from WOM, definitely an outlier. What you're missing though is that on this particular date a Friday Christmas followed by a Saturday Boxing Day, movies don't typically drop and if they do it's only a small percentage. It doesn't matter what has happened other years when the dates are different, what matters is this year when two movies that did slightly smaller business that Joy managed to increase and a movie that had a far greater opening managed a far smaller drop minus previews.

     

    I'm just saying that Joy is acting different than I would have expected. This is supposed to be a feel good movie for the holidays, it's targeting the demographic which isn't interested in the other movies opening, it's a very easy sell.

     

    Personally I don't like extrapolating an entire run based on two days estimates, but in my experience when a movie is showing early signs of being front loaded (especially when it's a movie that shouldn't be) then it's going to be front loaded. Not always of course (as mentioned Benjamin Button didn't follow this theory) but history suggests that Joy is going to be front loaded. I hope it's not (it seems like it's an appealing movie), but it seems the most likely possibility at the moment.

    I would disagree with this vehemently.  I'm a HUGE lawrence fan, and I like DOR and I do not truly understand what this film is going to be about.

    • Like 1
  8. 2 hours ago, Caesar said:

    Sherlock Holmes is a franchise, a movie like that is likely to have a higher percentage of demand on it's OD yet it dropped by a smaller percentage than Joy, it was also the record for a Christmas day and was far bigger than Joy's OW will be. Also everything around Sherlock Holmes increased that year.

     

    Let's say you're right though, Joy follows the pattern of Sherlock Holmes, is that a success if it becomes one of David O. Russell's lowest grossing movies, you're multiplier would have this just reaching above 60M, I'd hardly call that a victory.

    This is a very confusing post for me, particularly the last part.  First off, if it did hit 60 million, which I think is a forgone conclusion at this point, it would be right in the middle of DOR filmography.  The budget for this is a reported 60 million, so if it hits somewhere around 120 WW, with home video it should turn a profit.  Joy is a MUCH harder sell than any of the new releases because it truly is being sold only on J. Law's name.  The marketing has been kind of confusing in regards to what the film's subject matter is.

     

    A few posts down you mention PB increasing from Friday to Saturday, (a film with a 100 million dollar budget that won't make HALF of that back) as a point of reference, but then you question this film's performance?  I also don't think we can seriously discuss WOM on an adult demo film from one day to the next, that just seems absurd to me.  With an overall rotten score, VERY crowded playing field, and muddle marketing, I think Joy is doing just fine.  And if she gets an Oscar nom to go with the GG I think this will probably push for 80-100.  

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