RyneOh1040
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Posts posted by RyneOh1040
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I don't know that I think I'm declaring a decline but I'm definitely declaring a ceiling has been reached. No ones denying they can do big business but Captain America will never be in a league of a 200 OW nor do I think GOTG will (arguably marvels hottest property right now). You say the sky's the limit but I think marvel touched the sky with TA1 and now they can only go down or at best try to stay flat. TA1 WAS the perfect film you seem to be describing or waiting for in terms of buildup, reviews and audience reaction. And JW just took it down, if only by the skin of its 82 Indominus Rex teeth.Everyone a declaring the decline of superhero movies based on one movie, Age of Ultron.
AOU was weak as hell. When a couple of great superhero movies disappoint then you might have something.
The last two great superhero movies, GOTG and Winter Soldier far exceeded expectations.
If a movie staring the Avengers is just as good as those, all bets are off. The sky's the limit.
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Yup.I honestly don't see a Comic Book movie doing it. I'm putting my money on "Star Wars" or "Avatar" doing it.
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But the superhero golden age is somewhat playing out. That's my point. And it doesn't matter if it 'barely' beat it or not, only two films have ever reached that threshold. Barely beating JW from here on out will be a huge feat that very few films could hope to do. I'm not saying it can't or won't be beaten but I don't think it will be a marvel movie that does it. I don't see how awareness or crossover appeal can go higher than the avengers. They did everything right and had a film with stellar reviews. I think Star Wars is the only thing in consideration for the title in the next 3-5 years.Sure it will be tough for any movie to match TA's domestic total.
It opened above 200 m and had great legs but OW and WW could easily get topped.
JW is not going to keep the OW record for 3 or 4 years.
Let's get real.
It barely beat the old record. Movies like Svengers and Spider-man decimated the old record which is why they kept it for 3 or 4 years.
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But I'm not making an argument for or against AOU. Im looking forward. AOU is a prime example of why I think Infinity War and Civil War CAN'T take the record, because they're going to have to deal with the fallout of WOM. TA1 had phenomenal WOM and no I don't think the mayweather fight shaved off 17 million. It should have topped TA1 but didn't, not to mention is gonna end up about 200 mil less overall. I think that's a fair sign that those films may have peaked. TA1, like JW, is the anomale because it has everything working for it.It's not delusional.
If AOU was a great movie and there was no Mayweather fight, you don't think it could've made over 208 m OW.
That's just an extra 17 m.
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A spin off bigger than the biggest HP movie?
Very unlikely.
This. This this this.
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I agree with you, but you have to look at it a different way: nostalgia. Yep, I said it. We got used to receiving a movie / year and now we haven't had anything in 5 damn years. Even if it fails to meet expectations, this will be fully marketed as the return to that world and if WBs smart ad I think they are theyll likely make a connection with Dumbledore. It will be hyped to the stratosphere. I think it will have even weaker legs than Potter, but the OW will be huge. And there's really no other thing to compare it to, becauseno other franchise had the consistency Potter had. And that makes me to believe that the money it made came mainly from fans, not the GA. And when you have a fandom as big and as loyal that they stayed with you for 8 movies, I think they will come back to check this out. It will basically be the first time we have new material from that world since JK finished the last book in 2007/2008.
As a fanboy I agree with most of your points but why would the finale of the most popular literary franchise of all time open LOWER than a spin off? HP2 was the fanbase response at its absolute loudest, which is evident in the midnight and Friday number. I can't see how Fantastic Beasts gets more awareness than that film had or more crossover appeal. I don't even think it tops DH2 weekend, 135-150 would be a huge win for it.
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Lolololol at people suggesting Civil War/Infinity War/Fantastic Beasts/BvsS will touch this opening weekend. It's delusion.
We all underestimated just how popular this property still was and just how high the nostalgia factor would affect it. The fact that tracking had this pegged at 125 (which was also the general consensus on these forums) and it's opening nearly 100 MILLION DOLLARS above that is just insane. Universal did everything right here and kudos to them for it. I love the first two films and didn't really like the trailers but somehow everything worked for me in the actual film and it's just so much fun. This type of opening takes cultivating. Whether it's 5 or so years as was the case of Avengers or 20 with something like JP, these extreme outliers aren't flukes. Yes the HP fanbase is huge and rabid but Fanatsic Beasts simply isn't the same. I think it will do big business but nothing like this monster. And I think it's safe to say that the Marvel Unvierse has found it's ceiling with TA1. There's no reason Civil War or Infinity War should go higher. Batman v Superman argument is one big laugh. Star Wars is the only thing that has a true chance at topping this and I'm excited to see just how high the turnout for it ends up being.
This is one of the most fun weekends I've ever had on here.
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Coming from someone who LOVES the first two films and hated the trailers for JW, i really, really, loved this. Everything that seemed cheesy to me in the trailers somehow worked when all was said and done. Nothing can ever touch the original but I would def. put it on the same plain as LW.
Glad it's kicking jur(ass)ic.
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44% of SA opening was in 3D, 51% were females.
That's actually a good 3D share considering how much the novelty has worn off at this point, and a great demo split for a film like this.
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Do you have any idea how many times Pitch Perfect airs in a given week?
Nobody watches 2012. PP's airings on ABC Family have hit the top 20 cable ratings like four different times.
I follow ratings a lot but didn't know that. INSANE.
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That is a terrible analogy. And yes, it is a high concept, rated R action movie with trailers leaving the general audience asking WTF. It's certainly more niche than mainstream, and had a great weekend.Why do people keep calling the Mad Max films niche. The second and third were the 31st and 24th highest grossing films in their respective years. That's a pretty good sized hit and equates to something around 100-130m in today's environment. That's not niche.
Saying that they're niche is saying that Denzel Washington is a niche actor.
The Equalizer was the 31st biggest film of last year.
2 Guns was the 45th biggest film of 2013
Safe House and Flight were the 25th and 33rd biggest films of 2012
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Doubt it. Tomorrowland and Poltergeist are zero competition for PP2, there hasn't been anything solid for teen girls since Insurgent, and it's a holiday weekend.
$55-60 million 4 day likely. It'll drop like a rock after next week, though due to Aloha and Spy.
Tomorrowland for sure, but I do think there is some crossover for Poltergeist. Still, I just meant that I don't think a film like PP2 could ever be 4 quadrant. There was a huge rush factor for the audience to see this, though the small Saturday drop is a very healthy sign. I'll happily be wrong I just could see it really falling off from here out, and settling around 170-180.
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I think a lot of us knew PP2 was going to be big but that is just astrinomical. I think WOM seems good to great but I think even it was incredible this kind of film does have a ceiling. Don't think it hits 200, and has a huge drop next week. Still, it's a phenomenal showing and and proves that there are so many underserved demos out there right now.
Also a truly great result for MM. Anyone saying this is disappointing is delusional, this could have easily been another Lone Ranger type situation and is very niche to begin with it.
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Love that Potter keeps the crown on the anniversary of the Battle of Hogwarts.
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Really solid numbers, obviously this is going to be massive, which we all knew. I'm rooting for it, even though I thought it was inferior to The Avengers is just about every way. Still really entertaining though.
These kind of releases help me remember how special Potter was in terms of rush factor. 43.5 million from midnights, not early preview, but midnights, is still so, so staggering. I think there's no question that Star Wars will probably take it from come December but without the continuation of that franchise I think it would have been a record that could have stood for at least the next 5-10 years.
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Great result for Cinderella. Disney is so damn smart.
And I legit think Emma Stone could kill a live adaptation of The Little Mermaid. Especially after seeing her in Cabaret, girl's got some range.
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Hell Yes. Loved Kingsman so much. Such a fun ride.
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That's a REALLY solid number from GoT.
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Gitesh Pandya @giteshpandya 1m
Update - #AmericanSniper bigger than projected. Studio reports final 4day holiday wknd of record $107.3M. Cume $110.8M.
Just. Insane.
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I would say potentially most shocking OW ever, even more than Passion of the Christ.
That too.
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When you think of this R-Rated, January release beating Amazing Spider Man 2, Godzilla, Transformers, The Hobbit, every Marvel release last year and potentially Mockingjay I think you can make a very solid argument that it is in fact the most shocking box office event of the last ten years.
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Absolutely jaw dropping for AS. I have been on these forums for 10 years now and I can tell you that this may be the most shocking opening I've even seen. This is a once a decade kind of surprise. Hoping I can catch a screening today.
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Obviously the number is going to be big, but I know in Rth's initial post he said it could go as high as 30 if nights played as strong as matinees had. Well, if Nashville is any indicator, 30 is in the bag. Not since Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows have I seen a crowd like tonight. Went to go see a 7:00PM showing, got there 30 min early, and the theater had signs up that said the movie was sold out until 11:00PM. That is unheard of here. We checked the two other large theaters in the metro area and it was the same story so I came home and watched Scott Pilgrim instead.
I thought the trailers were incredible but still this is absolutely insane.
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Would have loved to see ITW sneak a win this weekend but knew it had almost no chance of happening. Still, looks like it's headed for at least 130+, right?
Thursday #'s: JURASSIC WORLD 17.9 (Rth)
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by RyneOh1040
This is going to be an incredible weekend for the 1 and 2 spots. REALLY want to see JW pull the 100 2nd weekend but anything above 90 is truly spectacular after the way it has held. Also think IO is going to be bigger than some here are thinking. NEVER underestimate the power of Pixar/Disney and this has a lot going for it: Rave reviews, a draught for their movies (by Pixar's standards), a draught for younger family fare and a voice cast that is both VERY popular with the older Pixar fans and have promoted the hell out of it. Mindy Kaling has done an insane amount of press for this to just be a vocal role.
I believe in JW and think it can hit 100-102 but I also think IO can push 85-90, maybe even 95. The percentage of total box office business in the top two films is going to be insane.
P.S. Got to see DOPE at a screening in NYC a few weeks ago, and even though its only playing in around 2000 theaters I think it can crack double digits. WOM will be really really strong and the urban community is always under serviced. I think it could end up a nice little sleeper hit.