babz06

Big decrease from the first. Bad decision for Boyega.

I don't think everything will disappoint but June does look like a blood bath. I would move WW to Memorial Day, to give it some space from The Mummy/transformers 5 and also pirates 5 doesn't look threatening.

The audience for those films were just too limited. Popstar looked like an Snl skit, a show that's been largely irrelevant in the last decade or so.

The drop off for this sequel is insane. People must have really hated the first Alice. I would be worried for pirates 5, if I was Disney right now.

It should hit 60m or more. No real competition for female audiences until Bad Moms.

I don't think there is any way that Central Intelligence disappoints. I doubt it's budget was more than 40m, and it's probably making that back on the first weekend. Pets and Moana are going to be big hits as well. So it looks like Kevin Hart/Dwayne Johnson are both going to have another good year.

200m movies: Pets Bourne Suicide Squad Moana Beasts Passengers

Feast or Famine year.

It depends on the amount of money they spend making the sequel. Also the length of time between movies. Comedy sequels generally never do as well as the original films. So I would be careful which ones I choose to green light. Both Neighbors 2 and NYSM2 , will have huge drop offs so unless the budgets are minuscule, the studio is going to get very tiny profits. So in the end I don't think sequels were worth it. A big blockbuster is different, in the case of Alice 2, they just waited too long.

June is going to take a huge drop off from last year.July should do a bit better and August is going to do about the same. September, October and November should all remain on par with last year. December is gonna have a steep drop off though and that's probably where 2016 loses the battle with 2015.

Well the difference is GOTG 2 had good wom, and is kicking off summer.

Tarzan is gonna flop. No one asked for it, and the marketing has been meh. Everyone is gonna see either IDR, Dory, Central Intelligence or The Purge 3/Shallows on 4th of July Weekend.

She was? I thought it was more Pamela Anderson.

I don't think that. But they air this film on tv rotation every Fourth of July. It's like a national past time.

It's a dumb popcorn flick though, like Jurassic World. From a well liked classic summer movie, and people do want to see the cast again. I think you're wayyy off. 150m is the floor (imo) I'm currently predicting 98m OW/ 360m DOM for Independence Day Resurgence.

Nah. Independence Day Resurgence should keep number one.

Yeah. Honestly, if the box office doesn't blow up for Finding Dory/Independence Day Resurgence then the studios are in deep trouble. Nearly every single one of the big 7 are making plans to jumpstart or build franchises. I guess they have to go back to making more original films, if this doesn't work out........

That's just sad. What other sequels this year will underperform?

I guess this is the year of big-budget sequels under-performing. Solid numbers for Me Before You, could get to upper teens/low 20s if matinees are good.

Queen Latifah and Jada Pinkett Smith added to the cast. http://deadline.com/2016/06/queen-latifah-jada-pinkett-smith-girl-trip-set-it-off-malcom-lee-universal-pictures-1201766219/ This will be another big hit for Will PAcker.

Right now I think these are the likeliest: 1) TMNT 2 2) The Conjuring 2 3) Finding Dory 4) Central Intelligence 5) Independence Day: Resurgence 6) The BFG 7) The Secret Life of Pets 8) Ghostbusters 9) Star Trek Beyond 10) Jason Bourne 11) Suicide Squad 12) Trolls 13) Doctor Strange 14) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find them 15) Moana 16) Rogue One 17) Passengers It's going to be really down to the wire at the end of the year if TMNT 2 or Ghostbusters doesn't make it. Because then you're depending on a few breakouts in order to break the record.

Not yet. They aren't bombing hard enough. I want to see how Universal's Monster Cinematic Universe plays out.

It's not like the first one was received all that well.

This is how people set themselves up for disappointment.

That's what i was thinking as well. July looks like the most balanced month of the summer. I'm thinking early June we'll see a bunch of flops until Dory/Central Intelligence/IDR comes out. July 1-Tarzan/ The BFG/ The Purge 3/The Shallows - This is probably the only meh weekend. ID and Dory should still be ruling the roost but Purge 3/Shallows will both find horror audiences. July 8- Secret Life of Pets should do atleast Lorax numbers, Mike and Dave has two appealing stars (Zac Efron/Anna Kendrick) the trailers haven't been that great but i think their combined fanbase shows out for it. July 15- Ghostbusters/ The Infiltrator- I think there is enough curiosity on Ghostbusters (good and bad) to produce a big opening weekend, legs depend on WOM. July 19-Ice Age: Collison Course/ Lights Out/Star Trek Beyond- The second trailer for Star Trek Beyond was received better than the first, and space/adventure movies are popular right now. Lights Out is another low budget horror film and should do well enough to make a profit. Ice Age is probably the only under-performing film this weekend. July 29- Jason Bourne/ Bad Moms/Nerve- Jason Bourne is one of the most anticipated summer films I think it does huge numbers. Bad Moms is going to appeal to women and adults, it's another original comedy that I think does well. Nerve is a non factor. August really only has Suicide Squad. Unless Pete's Dragon/Sausage Party breaks out, or one of the several adult skewing dramas (The Founder, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hands of Stone, etc) I wouldn't bet on a high grossing month. So it's really late June/July that's going to carry this summer.