#4 is still very much possible. The odds were always in favor of TDKR to win and after the performance of TA, #1 was out of the question anyway. Nobody had THG that high on their list, though. So really, Hobbit might be just one place lower than many anticipated after July.
Maybe he stepped in because he was already very much involved with the movies as a producer and screenwriter and knows the universe well and it would be difficult to find someone on such short notice to replace Del Toro? Maybe he just changed his mind regarding directing?We don't know what Del Toro would have done. I've seen many of his movies and nothing comes close to LOTR.As for 3 movies, they have explained it. Google it.I think you are just too blind of hatred to see anything that doesn't paint PJ in a bad light.