Elessar
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Everything posted by Elessar
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For what it's worth, i hope you are right.
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People keep saying that but at least on OW, audiences skewed older and male. Sure, they drop harder but they also don't increase better. Let's take Skyfall for instance, which i think also skews a little older and male. It increased 90% last Friday, i'd be surprised if it increases 90% again this Friday since its Thursday week-to-week drop will probably be only around 10% (just a guess based on the good Thursday numbers so far for other movies). If Skyfall increases less than 90%, i think Hobbit will follow suit (provided Skyfall's drop is not caused by theater loss).You have to look at other movies in terms of figuring out the current market situation. And current situation is that midweek days are clearly inflated.
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You have to look at other movies when predicting. These midweek days are clearly somewhat inflated, last week's Friday increases were already rather low, this week's are gonna be even lower.As for your 2nd point, really? Have you done a calculation? On a quick look, it doesn't seem so. IAL finished with about $250m, Hobbit is gaining very little per day bar opening day.
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I provided support. Week-to-week drops of other movies, some are close to staying flat, kids movies are even higher than they were last week. Do you expect tiny drops or even increases for this weekend? I don't.
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I still think it's gonna be a tough fight for $300m.The ones hoping for an 100% Friday increase are gonna be disappointed.
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The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!
Elessar replied to Totem's topic in International Box Office
My guess is, Europe very good holds, Asia bad holds, LA... no idea yet. -
Really? You mean, unadjusted, right?
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The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!
Elessar replied to Totem's topic in International Box Office
Tomorrow it's back to flopping...Maybe you should just stop at jumping to conclusions. -
People, people.... look at other movies increases and week-to-week drops. I bet my left nut Friday increases are gonna be very small.
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So $275m it is. I doubt Hobbit is gonna increase more than IAL. Dailies are already somewhat inflated, friday increases are gonna be rather low.
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Another lackluster opening. Coupled with no legs in Russia... a lot of potential money left on the table...
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You mean warm?
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Why such statements in the title? Do we know numbers?
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So tiresome, these arguments...
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As i wrote yesterday for the tuesday numbers:
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The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!
Elessar replied to Totem's topic in International Box Office
It made $16m on thursday.I dunno what he expected for the weekdays.... -
Same here. First trailer - meh, i dunno, effects not seamless, started having doubts. Then next day i went to Avatar day - looked stunning, applause at the end from the crowd, i was again a believer.
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I dunno, i assumed it was a response to the "it's not gonna repeat Avatar's run" posts.Just assume i didn't say anything...
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Saying it's gonna drop from the first is not hating, it's being realistic. You just don't repeat such a phenomenal run. Yeah, i know Cameron did it twice in a row but this time it's a sequel (to a phenomenon - it bears repeating, T2 was not a sequel to a phenomenon, neither was Aliens), i doubt people will respond to more of the same as enthusiastically and in such numbers. It's still gonna do tons of money.
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It's not going to increase OS either.
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I'm hearing there's a cold wave in Russia, down to -30 degree and it should get even worse. Don't think that's beneficial to theater attendance. Luck is not on Hobbit's side....
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The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!
Elessar replied to Totem's topic in International Box Office
Is it normal that WB doesn't give any midweek OS updates? -
Well, i don't expect anything record breaking in light of the other results.
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The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!
Elessar replied to Totem's topic in International Box Office
Unfortunately, small countries.That hold in Germany would be amazing but i i think it's too early to give a sound projection. -
How about $300m?It's the first meh number since OD. Depending on how other movies increased, it could drop over 20% today. Back to I Am Legend territory.
