BadAtGender

We are saved from the doom and gloom posts for another day.

It was an amazing run to be sure, but it was prior to most board members even being born. And it was in that pre-1980 era where records of what it was like can't be easily accessed, so there's no way to get a good picture of what it was like from the data. I mean we don't even have an accurate final total, just that flat 260m number, possibly because they never really tracked box office grosses before then, just the rents. Perhaps because of that, it did set up the concept of the modern blockbuster, and the films that followed in the last 70s (Star Wars, Superman, etc.) have a better image of what their runs were like.

Glad I could say something apparently everyone disagrees with. But I'll stick with it. I love Spielberg and Cameron, but I'll take the Fury Road. It's cool if people feel otherwise.

MMFR is better than any film Spielberg or Cameron have done.

OS for JW? Under a billion. Possibly under AoU, actually. We'll have to see how it goes. (As far as comparisons, I don't find them particularly useful here. Avatar and JW are using very different toolsets to engage the audience. JW is playing up the nostalgia to the nth degree, Avatar was about presenting a new experience.)

There's an argument to be made that JP is Williams' best score, IMO. He had some great themes elsewhere, but it's an amazingly complete package.

In a lot of ways, JP was the first film to really show that OS could be a force to be reckoned with. Prior to that, I think the general consensus was that if your film matched the domestic gross overseas, you were doing pretty well. JP did 900m WW, which was a mind-boggling amount. (Granted, it does highlight how crazy huge Titanic was, since it doubled JP worldwide within five years.) Good on JW for tapping into that JP mystique. I don't love the film, but the performance is super impressive. (And I'll say that I was willing to see the film to make sure I didn't love it. When Titanic was in theaters, I just hated it because.)

I think you're understating how amazing Titianic's soundtrack performance was. Pretty much every other huge selling soundtrack does so by the songs. Grease, The Lion King, The Bodyguard, 8 Mile, Frozen... they're up there because of the singing. Titanic did it as a score. It was totally unprecedented. (As far as singles, while several soundtracks have produced ones that are hits, My Heart Will Go On is the second bestselling in history. I Will Always Love you is the only one that's sold better. And other soundtracks that produce hit singles, such as Robin Hood's (Everything I Do) I Do It For You, tend not to sell especially well besides the single.) I don't know how you can mark it affecting music, though. So you're probably right there.

Possibly Pixar's best.

Nemo says "Hi." It was the first animated film to hit half a billion OS. And in fact it was the only one to do it before Ice Age 3 did it in 2009. (The Lion King didn't get there until the 3D re-release, IIRC.)

I think part of the good holds were because it got a one-week slot in premium theaters like IMAX venues due to Tomorrowland disappointing. All of those obviously went to Jurassic World when it opened.

It can be. For instance, the last day for public schools here in Seattle was actually today, so the M-T business wouldn't have had those summer weekdays in effect, yet. I suppose it'd be interesting to start mapping out the various major school districts to figure out when the crossover holidays are and all. Lot of work, though.

15% would be a really good hold. I'd expect something in the 20-30% range. And then another 10% on Thursday. So 17.5-19.5 for Wednesday. And 16-17 for Thursday.

I suppose Ant-Man.

You know the rules: 1) Will Jurassic World fall less than 55%? NO 2) Will JW have Thursday drop of more than 10%? YES 3) Will JW increase more than 83% on Friday? NO 4) Will Inside Out make more than 65 million? YES 5) Will IO finish less than 17.5 million back of JW? YES 6) Will Spy drop less than 35%? YES 7) Will Pitch Perfect drop more than 30%? NO 8) Will any film increase more than 83% on Friday? YES 9) Will the top 10 films add up to more than 205 million? YES 10) Will JW be at more than 800 million WW by Monday morning, meaning Sunday numbers count (only estimates will count). YES 11) Will Dope have an increase on Saturday? YES 12) Will JW and IO add up to more than 152 million? YES 10/12 3000 11/12 4000 12/12 600 What finishes in spots 5 DOPE 7 INSIDIOUS CHAPTER 3 9 ENTOURAGE 12 LOVE & MERCY 2000 each 3000 bonus for all spots correct Bonus 1: What does JW make on Saturday? 5000 34.235 Bonus 2: What does IO make on Friday? 5000 28.460

Did Cameron acknowledge himself?

25m is good for a Monday any time of year, off any sort of opening. I'd expect Tuesday to be in the 22-23m range, about a 10% drop. However it's possible Monday was inflated due to sellouts over the weekend and people needing to wait to get into a showing. (TA1 probably didn't have that effect so much due to school being in session in May, so it had the bleed-over happen on the 2nd Weekend instead.) If that's the case, it might fall slightly harder on Tuesday.

Guesses: 22 Tuesday 18 Wednesday 16 Thursday (290 week) 26 Friday 33 Saturday 28 Sunday (87 Weekend, 377 total)

I rewatched MU a few days ago and I think the bigger problem with it is it really didn't have good pacing for its big beats. While there are some big moments, they don't tend to happen at the culmination of the acts, and even the climax felt oddly subdued. It played things too safe. (I'd disagree about its relative quality, too: Brave is a considerably better film.) As far as DWA, I'd argue The Croods still retains the askew feel that Chris Sanders seems to bring to his films. It's not really in line with other DWA fare, even if it doesn't approach the Dragons in quality.

Another weird box office quirk I like to track is most under-estimated films. JW slots in solidly at #3. Title Date Estimate Actual Difference $ Difference % The Passion of the Christ 2/29/2004 $76,200,000.00 $83,848,082.00 $7,648,082.00 10.04% Marvel's The Avengers 5/4/2012 $200,300,000.00 $207,438,708.00 $7,138,708.00 3.56% Jurassic World 6/14/2015 $204,600,000.00 $208,806,270.00 $4,206,270.00 2.06% Avatar 12/20/2009 $73,000,000.00 $77,025,481.00 $4,025,481.00 5.51% Valentine's Day 2/14/2010 $52,410,000.00 $56,260,707.00 $3,850,707.00 7.35% Shrek 2 5/23/2004 $104,300,000.00 $108,037,878.00 $3,737,878.00 3.58% Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 7/9/2006 $132,028,000.00 $135,634,554.00 $3,606,554.00 2.73% Furious 7 4/5/2015 $143,623,000.00 $147,187,040.00 $3,564,040.00 2.48% Man of Steel 6/16/2013 $113,080,000.00 $116,619,362.00 $3,539,362.00 3.13% Fifty Shades of Grey 2/15/2015 $81,670,000.00 $85,171,450.00 $3,501,450.00 4.29% Spider-Man 3 5/6/2007 $148,000,000.00 $151,116,516.00 $3,116,516.00 2.11% The Dark Knight 7/20/2008 $155,340,000.00 $158,411,483.00 $3,071,483.00 1.98% Pretty impressive that three of the top ten have happened this year. Sundays have been good for business, I suppose. I think that's all films that were under by 3m or more, but it's possible I missed some.

Amazon.

Eh. Animation doesn't get LPF, so that's not really a concern. 3D is pretty much a given as available if they want it in normal theaters. I don't think it'll be a nightmare to fit what they want in. Might hit the holdovers pretty hard, though. There are plenty of runs that are already greater stories than TA1. Even ignoring things like Titanic, and the three that Tele mentioned. TDK, for instance. The first Jurassic Park. ET. Hell, it won't even be the most impressive box office story this year, considering what F7 did in China. The triplets are pretty integrated into the plot and their shenanigans weren't really utilized to sell the movie as the Minions are. (FWIW, I do actually enjoy the Minions. But it's a small doses kinda thing. They'd be great if it were just in shorts of a minute or two. Scrat's pretty much the same.)

The traditional start of summer used to be Memorial Day weekend. Sometime in the 90s (Twister?) they started pushing for earlier in the month, and it seems to have settled on the first weekend of May. In some ways, the weekend records happening there make sense. April has traditionally been a weak month, so a film that releases there has very little competition to worry about, and it can get a large share of theaters and screens. Once you get to Memorial Day or the preceding weekend, there's more films that are vying for attention. But any film that sets the weekend record mostly does so by tapping into the general audience interest. JW might have had a bit of an advantage from a few weeks of slightly down business, but it's mostly that big based on how much people want the dinosaur action.

It'd be the first time since 1979 a weekend record has been set in December. Of the 27 times the record has been set, 10 of them happened in June, 8 in May, 4 in July, 3 in December, and 1 each in August and November.

Or don't figure out a way to market it and just hope for the best: see Frozen, Pacific Rim, or Edge of Tomorrow.