BadAtGender

I didn't know you were there. Maybe next time. If there is a next time.

*sigh*

Brain hurts. Abstain.

Part A: 1. Will Hitman's Bodyguard Open to more than $20M? 1000 No 2. Will Logan Lucky Open to more than $10M? 2000 Yes 3. Will the two films combine to more than $30M? 3000 No 4. Will Annabelle stay at number 1? 4000 No 5. Will Will Nut Job stay above Dark Tower? 5000 Yes 6. Will Wonder Woman drop less than 35%? 1000 Yes 7. Will Valerian drop more than 62%? 2000 Yes 8. Will Emoji Stay above Spiderman? 3000 Yes 9. Will Kidnap stay above Glass Castle? 4000 No 10. Will Girl's Trip drop more than 31% on Sunday? 5000 Yes 11. Will A Taxi Driver drop less than 10% this weekend? 1000 No 12. Will Patti Cakes have a PTA above $9,000? 2000 Yes 13. Will Baby Driver have a PTA above $1,000? 3000 Yes 14. Will Maudie stay above Captain Underpants? 4000 Yes 15. Will Ryan Reynolds turn into deadpool and comment of Jackson's lack of eyepatch? 5000 Of course not. He knows that Jackson's just a Life Model Decoy and thus wouldn't need an eyepatch. He's going to comment on the shoddy cover story that the LMD Fury has. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Logan Lucky make for its 3 day OW? $10.43m 2. What will Nut Job's percentage drop for the weekend be? 46.7% 3. What will GOTG2's PTA be? $978 Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Annabelle: Creation 5. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature 7. Girl's Trip 9. The Dark Tower 12. The Glass Castle 14. Despicable Me 3 Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

Currently 12 of the top 15, 6 OWs, and 9 of the WW. I'd expect I'm going to lose one of the top 15, though. Order is all fucked for all three, and my numbers are vastly off in some cases. All in all, probably a middling pre-season, to match a middling game performance.

None of those silly, think forever, rack your brains SOTMs this time. Just 7 simple questions... 1. Will Nut Job open to more than $10M? Yes 2. Will Nut Job drop less than 50% in its 2nd weekend? No 3. Will Nut Job increase on Saturday? Yes 4. Will Nut job increase more than 37.5% on its 1st Tuesday? No 5. Will Nut Job have more than 9 days above $1M? Yes 6. Will Nut Job more than $2M ahead of Emoji Movie in the August 18th Weekend standings? No 7. Will Nut Job make more than $4M in the UK? Yes You must answer all 7 Scoring: 7 Correct: 50,000 points 6 Correct: 30,000 points 5 correct: 15,000 points 4 correct: 0 points 3 correct: minus 15000 points 2 correct: minus 30000 points 1 correct: minus 50000 points 0 correct: 80000 points (not a typo) Deadline is Thursday 10th at 11:59pm Abstaining is worth minus 5000 No comment is minus 12000

Part A: 1. Will Annabelle Open to more than $25M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Glass Castle Open to more than $3M? 2000 Yes 3. Will Nut Job make more than $9.5M? 3000 Yes 4. Will Nut Job and Glass Castle combine to more than half Annabelle's Opening weekend? 4000 No 5. Will Dunkirk stay in the top 2? 5000 Yes 6. Will Wonder Woman drop less than 30% 1000 Yes 7. Will Dark Tower drop more than 52% 2000 Yes 8. Will Atomic Blonde Stay above Detroit? 3000 Yes 9. Will War for the Apes stay above Despicable Me? 4000 No 10. Will Valerian drop more than 61%? 5000 Yes 11. Will A Taxi Driver have a PTA above $7,000? 1000 Yes 12. Will The trip to Spain have a PTA above $5,000? 2000 Yes 13. Will Kidnap have a PTA above $2,150? 3000 Yes 14. Will SPiderman have a PTA above $1950? 4000 Yes 15. Will the Nut Job finally be the 2017 animated tour de Force we have all been waiting for? 5000 If we're looking for a tour de force of crap, we've already got Emoji, and I don't think Nut Job's relentless mediocrity will let it go that low. But @grim22 is stanning for it or whatever, so who knows? Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Annabelle make for its 3 day OW? $29.347m 2. What will Wonder Woman's percentage drop for the weekend be? -27.3% 3. What will Cars 3's PTA be? $978 Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Dunkirk 5. Girl's Trip 8. Kidnap 10. Detroit 13. War for the Planet of the Apes 18. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

ugh

Wonder Woman - 28% 28% 28% 28% 10% No more because I'm on mobile and can't research it

Part A: 1. Will Dark Tower Open to more than $22.5M? 1000 No 2. Will Detroit have a 3 day weekend of more than $12.5M? 2000 Yes 3. Will Kidnap make more than $5M? 3000 No 4. Will Dunkirk stay in the top 2? 4000 Yes 5. How many films will make more than $12M this weekend? 5000 Four 6. Will Wonder Woman drop less than 25% 1000 Yes 7. Will Emoji drop more than 47.5% 2000 Yes 8. Will Girl's Trip Stay above Atomic Blonde? 3000 Yes 9. Will Baby Driver stay above Wonder Woman? 4000 Yes 10. Will Wish Upon drop more than 65%? 5000 Yes 11. Will Wind River have a PTA above $12,000? 1000 Yes 12. Will Jab Harry met Sejal have a PTA above $5,000? 2000 Yes 13. Will Despicable Me 3 have a PTA above $1,850? 3000 Yes 14. Will Will Valerian somehow drop below Wonder Woman? 4000 Yes 15. Will Nolanites implode if Dunkirk drops below Emoji this weekend? 5000 Yes, but they'll be overwhelmed by the single jizztastic explosion of the one Emojistan in the world. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Dark Tower make for its 3 day OW? 15.35m 2. What will Valerian's percentage drop for the weekend be? - 64.33% 3. What will Detroit's percentage change be? +3256% Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. The Dark Tower 4. Girls Trip 7. Atomic Blonde 10. Despicable Me 3 12. Baby Driver 15. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

Hey, Seattle represent. DK is going to play there for another three weeks, too. It's not 70mm anymore, but the Christie laser is nice, too. After that it'll be the 70mm festival, where I'll get to see Lawrence of Arabia for the first time.

Definitely. It'll be looking at a 6m week. And if it holds comparably next weekend, it'll pass 400 next Saturday. And it likely passes Spider-Man the following weekend.

That's an astonishing increase for Spider-Man: Homecoming.

Part A: 1. Will Emoji Open to more than $30M? 1000 No 2. Will Atomic Blonde Open to more than $30M? 2000 No 3. Will The Emoji MOvie make more than Atomic Blonde? 3000 4. Will Dunkirk stay above at least one of the two biggest new openers? 4000 Yes 5. Will the top 3 all make over $24M? 5000 No 6. Will Wonder Woman drop less than 35% 1000 Yes 7. Will Girl's Trip drop more than 47.5% 2000 No 8. Will Valerian Stay above Despicable Me 3? 3000 No 9. Will Baby Driver have a lower percentage drop than The Big SIck? 4000 Yes 10. Will Transformers drop more than 67.5%? 5000 No 11. Will Inconvenient Sequel have a PTA above $11,000? 1000 Yes 12. Will From the Land of the Moon have a PTA above $14,000? 2000 No 13. Will Apes have a PTA above $3,250? 3000 Yes 14. Will Underpants Randomly drop less than 10% yet again? 4000 No 15. What emoji will end up best describing the Emoji Movie? 5000 Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Emoji make for its 3 day OW? $21.23m 2. What will Dunkirk's percentage drop for the weekend be? -48.7% 3. What will be the difference in PTA between Atomic Blonde and Emoji? $250 Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 1. Dunkirk 3. Atomic Blonde 5. Spider-Man: Homecoming 8. Valerians and the City of a Thousand Planets 10. Wonder Woman 13. Cars 3 Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

(Frozen's first five days were limited release. Which completely fucks up most of the comparison charts on mojo.) Assuming both films have strong reception like the originals, they should be able to do fantastic business. 2019 has the same calendar configuration as 2013, so Frozen 2 can benefit from the relatively short period between Thanksgiving and Christmas that helped the first time around. The legs likely won't be as strong, but it should open stronger and will play through the New Year very well at least. I could easily see it pulling a 90m/125m for it's 3day and 5day openings. Where it finishes depend on legs, but 400m+ seems easily possible. WW2 is probably going to get a monster opening. Star Wars has shown that can happen in December without sacrificing legs. 130m seems likely. 150m wouldn't surprise me. 400m+ is also possible.

How'd the Seattle Cinerama do?

Yeah, it was a pretty great experience there.

Here are 7, box office 2 horse races: 1. Despicable Me (2.0) 10,000 4. Dunkirk (3.1) 10,000 5. 47 Metres Down(5.7) 10,000 7. Baby Driver (1.8) 10,000 You may choose as many or as few of the matchup as you wish. You may bet up to 10,000 points (in multiples of 1,000) of your own money per question. If you win, you get back your bet multiplied by the number in brackets. If you lose, you lose the amount that you bet. Your final total will be rounded to the nearest 1000 points. There is no abstaining, just don't bet and get zero. Deadline is Thursday 21st at 11:59

Part A: 1. Will Dunkirk make more than $45M OW? 1000 Yes 2. Will Valerian Open to more than $22.5M? 2000 No 3. Will Girl's Trip open to more than $22.5M? 3000 Yes 4. Will Dunkirk Open to more than Valerian and Girl's Trip combined? 4000 Yes 5. Will the three main openers make more than $90M combined? 5000 Yes 6. Will Apes drop less than 55%? 1000 No 7. Will Spiderman stay in the top 4? 2000 Yes 8. WIll Cars 3 drop more than Despicable Me 3 (percentage)? 3000 Yes 9. Will Wish Upon drop more than 62% 4000 Yes 10. Will The House drop more than 65%? 5000 Yes 11. Will Baby Driver have a PTA above $2,150? 1000 12. Will The Fencer have a PTA above $6000? 2000 Yes 13. Will The Midwife have a PTA above $4000? 3000 Yes 14. Will The Big Sick drop more than 30%? 4000 Yes 15. Will The Mummy stay above Captain Underpants? 5000 Yes 16. Will 47 MEtres Down stay above The Beguiled? 1000 Yes 17. Will Transformers have a higher weekend percentage drop than Pirates? 2000 Yes 18. Wil Spiderman cross $250M by the end of the weekend? 3000 Yes 19. Will Dunkirk Open in first place? 4000 Yes 20. Will the British sailors save the day using some bullshit involving a watch, morse code and the 5th dimension? 5000 Well, there is a critical tie-in to the DCEU involving Mister Mxyzptlk, so take that how you will. Bonus: 12/20 2000 13/20 4000 14/20 7000 15/20 12000 16/20 16,000 17/20 21,000 18/20 26,000 19/20 32,000 20/20 40,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Dunkirk make for Friday? 21.43m 2. What will be the different in gross between Dunkirk's 3 day and Girl's Trip and Valerian's combined 3 day? 3.72m 3. What will Transformer's percentage drop be? -64.3% Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 1. Dunkirk 3. Spider-Man: Homecoming 5. Valerians and the City of a Thousand Planets 8. The Big Sick 10. Cars 3 13. 47 Meters Down Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000 Deadline is Thursday May 25th at 11:59pm

I could see it increasing somewhat from this one. It is getting pretty positive response, even if the legs aren't looking so great. So instead of a 300 or whatever finish, I could see a 140/350 situation. But it probably won't go huge, no.

That's... not really true. It isn't like there are discrete audiences for Spider-Man and Iron Man and you add them together. Rather there is a ton of overlap already between them. If we take, say, the 90-odd million that TASM2 got in its OW as the "core Spider-Man audience" (~$97m, adjusted for inflation), then we could probably assume that the extra $20m are Iron Man/MCU fans who came along for the ride. But the audiences aren't static, either. There are some people who dig Spider-Man, but hate Iron Man, so they might avoid it. There are people who dig Iron Man, but don't care about Spider-Man, and see no point in checking out a movie where IM is a decided second fiddle. There are people who might have been interested, but aren't really interested in keeping track of everything that's going on, so they may have passed on it. As the MCU matures, and it continues to push the crossovers between characters, it's going to limit the ceiling for the audience. There is a dedicated core, yes, that will probably stick around for a long time, but the potential to grab new audience members decreases with every film. Because there's a tricky path to follow: to grab new people you need to explain some things, but you can't do so in a way that bores your experienced audience. That's not easy to do, especially if you need to keep churning out content. In many ways, it might help to look at Homecoming as an apology. To the existing fanbase. It's a statement of "we messed up with the Amazing series, here's a good film to entertain you." But because it isn't an origin, it's actually not entirely great for new audiences. The hope is probably that if the apology is accepted, that will garner good will for SMH2. Of course, then it'll be part an even MORE mature franchise so the ceiling will probably be even more limited.

It's almost like he's going through all the press junkets and stuff for a film he's in. Weird, huh?

This is the sort of area where things like the Tomato Law are really going to break down. While Wonder Woman and Spider-Man are pretty equal in the strength of reviews, the content of the conversation about them is quite different. It's like, Spider-Man is an enjoyable film, but I've never seen anyone really talk about the importance of theme. There isn't a tremor of "you have to see this movie" going on under the talk about it. That's in pretty stark contrast to Wonder Woman, which has generated a lot of dialogue about what it's doing on many levels. There might be some people that Spider-Man speaks to personally, but it's a significantly smaller group than those who are seeing something special in Wonder Woman. Spider-Man is a film I'd describe as fun, if someone asked. It's the sort of endorsement that would probably prompt someone to go see it if they were already inclined. With Wonder Woman, however, I'm probably going to pester someone for weeks until they see it.

I think by definition, we don't know how good the word of mouth is until after the fact. The evidence points that Wonder Woman has very good word of mouth. For Spider-Man, we'll have to wait and see.