BadAtGender

Well, I got spoiled on Passengers, and it sounds even worse than I expected.

In the top 3 of all Star Wars films.

Rogue One is good. Probably sneaks into my yearly top ten.

Rogue One time.

It's probably fine. The upper range of predictions for it are dead, but it's going to cruise past 200m. The only comparison film we have is Tintin, but that's already not good. Tintin was seeing better holds. So we can probably say that the ~3.9x from the 6-day that Tintin saw is probably the upper range for Sing. That's approximately 275m as a maximum total.

I did not love The LEGO Movie, but I'm rather excited for this.

This one is much clearer. 33% drop for R1, Pass, 36% drop for Moana 38% drop for Sing 41% drop for Ass 54% drop for Why Him (or 41% from true Friday) Pretty good all around. Oh, yeah. 12% rise for LLL.

*attempts to decipher the Riddle of the Numbers* *fails*

I don't think Sing's going to get to 76m total through Monday, though. 13.2 Friday, 8m Saturday, 13.5 Sunday. It would need to jump 60% on Monday, give or take? That seems a bit high. Moana should be able to get close to 8m off of a 3m Friday. I could see Why Him and Assassin's Creed both falling under Moana over the four day. Probably not the 3-day, but that's possible, too. Also, oof, that's some bad numbers for almost everything new. Except Dangal. That's a pretty awesome start. And I guess Sing is okay, if a little softer than expected.

I should probably read this at some point.

It didn't have an abysmal drop due to Sing. It didn't have an abysmal drop at all.

It'll do that by the end of the holidays.

Not that I don't like the optimism, but 300 for Moana seems like a stretch, right now.

My previous Christmasses: 2005-2014 - Worked, probably. 2015 - Unemployed 2016 - Actual fucking vacation.

Abstain, because brain no worky.

1. Will Passengers make more than $25m for the 3 Day? No 2. Will Passengers make more than $32.5m for the 3 Day? 3000 No 3. Will Passengers make more than $40m for the 3 Day? No 4. Will Sing make more than $25m for the 3 Day? Yes 5. Will Sing make more than $32.5m for the 3 Day? 2000 Yes 6. Will Sing make more than $40m for the 3 Day? Yes 7. Will Assassin's Creed make more than $17.5m for the 3 Day? No 8. Will Assassin's Creed make more than $22.5m for the 3 Day? No 9. Will Why Him make more than $8m for the 3 Day? 2000 Yes 10. Will Why Him make more than $12m for the 3 Day? No 11. Will the 3 highest new entries combine to make more than Rogue One over the 3 Day? Yes 12. Will Passengers have a higher total gross than Sing at the end of Friday? 3000 No 13. Will A Monster Calls have a PTA above $22,000? No 14. Will A Monster Calls have a PTA above $32,000? No 15. Will Silence have a PTA above $27,500? Yes 16. Will Silence have a PTA above $40,000? 2000 Yes 17. Will Patriots Day have a PTA above $12,000? Yes 18. What will be the highest grossing film this weekend to show in 10 theatres or less? 3000 Silence 19. Will Fences enter the top 10? Yes 20. Will Rogue One drop less than 39.8%? 2000 No 21. Will Office Xmas Party stay above Collateral Beauty? Yes 22. Will Manchester by the Sea stay above La La Land? No 23. Will any film increase more than 125% on Sunday? 3000 Yes 24. Will any film not expanding increase in gross from last weekend? Yes 25. Will Dangal screw everyone's predictions over because we always forget how well these Bollywood films do opening weekend? It's probably going to screw up mine... but then because I'm trying to predict it, I'll get screwed up in the opposite direction. THANKS FOR MENTIONING IT! Bonus: 16/25 2000 17/25 3000 18/25 5000 19/25 7000 20/25 9000 21/25 12000 22/25 15000 23/25 18000 24/25 21000 25/25 25000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000) 1. Predict Passengers, Sing and Assassin's Creed's combined 3 day gross. 89.10m 2. Predict Rogue One's Percentage decrease from last weekend. -57.9% 3. What will Silence's PTA be? $54,321 Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 2. Sing 4. Passengers 7. Office Christmas Party 10. Collateral Beauty 13. Hidden Figures 16. Trolls 3/6 2000 points 4/6 5000 points 5/6 8000 points 6/6 13000 points

JonathanLB is pushing boundaries!

Yeah, usually it's top 10% of all days. And I could see a case for it hitting top 10 for the forseeable future, because of Star Wars.

Not... really? Like for the past couple years it's been one of the bigger days of the year in terms of top 10 gross,(4th last year, 2nd in 2014), but if you look prior to 2014, that's not the case. It was the 18th biggest aggregate day in 2013 13th biggest in 2012 27th biggest in 2011, which had the same calendar configuration 37th biggest in 2010 It was 4th biggest in '08 and '09, 15th in '07, 20th in '06, and 43rd in '05... again, same calendar configuration. It'll probably be on the higher end this year, but it's likely that the 26th will be bigger.

Oh, this isn't the sequel to World War Z.

Because Monday is included as part of the holiday weekend due to Christmas dropping on a Sunday. The Wednesday opening that some films get is because Saturday's business is going to be bad, relative to the rest of the days. W-Th aren't part of the weekend, but they do contribute to the 6-day opening.

It's possible, but the different between the two is probably going to be under $20m either way.

I was thinking of McCarthy, but she's not quite in the realm of superstar. Her business is sustained and solid, but it isn't stratospheric, which Carrey was able to do. To put it another way: she's the de facto comedy star of the moment, but we're lacking a superstar. Not that I expect Pratt to become one. His current career path seems to be in more of the action leading man mold. If I was looking at someone who's more likely to build to that level, McCarthy's a possibility, though McKinnon may have a better shot because she's younger. Kevin Hart could probably make a go at it, too.

Comedies would be good, but he needs better writing. Parks and Rec showed that he can do some pretty great comedy range. If he could get someone to actually deliver him good material to work with, he'd probably be a comedy superstar, which we haven't really had in a while. Trying to push him as the next action-movie man isn't the best path, IMO. I could easily see him pulling a Jim Carrey-esque run, given the chance.

Yes, there are shitty people all around. Being leftist or liberal or whatever doesn't make you a good person. But it is INFURIATING to see people again and again try to find some sort of balance and claim "both sides have problems" which they then conclude that they're equally bad.