BadAtGender

Moana comparisons! Year Film Eq. Wed Ratio Final 1999 TS2 0.68 2.04 286m 2007 Enchanted 1.11 1.25 233m 2010 Tangled 0.51 2.73 299m 2011 Muppets 0.19 7.31 240m 2011 Hugo 0.22 6.32 362m 2012 Guardians 0.88 1.58 233m 2013 Frozen 1.18 1.18 334m 2014 Penguins 0.11 12.64 280m 2015 TGD 0.16 8.16 286m Pretty basic. Just taking the ratio of Moana's Wednesday to the equivalent Wednesday and then multiplying that by the remaining gross of each film. There's obviously range. I didn't include Arthur Christmas, because it was pulled from theaters the following Thursday. If Moana did the same, it'd end up at right about BH6's total. It's interesting that both Pixar films predict the same total. I think both are high, though. The Muppets is interesting, because of calendar configuration. Average of all of them: 283m Average without Hugo: 273m Average without Hugo & Frozen: 265m

If it follows Tintin's rises and drops from here it hits about 266m. Friday's bump will probably indicate if it's going to go above or below that.

I'd actually be curious to find out how long it took in its initial release to break into the all time top 10. I'd guess it was sometime in July of '77. Actually, we can more or less construct a top ten prior to its release. Here's the earliest chart for DOM we can get from BOM, January 1, 1982: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm?asof=1982-01-01&p=.htm If we eliminate all films from 1977 and later, we get this: 1. Jaws, 260m 2. The Exorcist, 193m 3. Gone With the Wind, 189m 4. The Sound of Music, 158m 5. The Sting, 156m 6. The Godfather, 133m 7. Blazing Saddles, 119m 8. Rocky, 117m 9. The Towering Inferno, 116m 10. American Graffiti, 115m So the question would be how long it took Star Wars to get to 116m in that initial release. Ironically, George Lucas kicked himself off of the top 10 chart.

Moana will pass BH6 on... Saturday? probably? And it's going to end up ~30m ahead.

No film will make between $200m and $300m DOM.

It seems clear that our @That One Guy is defective. Can we return him for a replacement, or has the warranty expired?

Eh. The moment has passed.

Someone was criticizing Robocop earlier today and I was going to write up something in defense of it, but I forgot which thread it was in.

People defending Lucy is so weird. It might be Besson's worst film. Though I confess I haven't seen many of them. All it has going for it is an intriguing (although completely false) concept. The characters are flat, the plot isn't developed, the action is uninspired. It isn't just an underbaked meal, it's one that you realize has a raw and frozen center when you bite into it. It's boring. And perhaps worst of all, it's forgettable.

Weirdly, we might not see the dollar get weaker, even if Trump tanks the economy. The situation elsewhere is also bad, so there might be a case where the dollar is stronger in relative terms.

Yeah. This won't run into the same problem as Lucy, where they had a neat premise, but no clue how to resolve it.

I considered writing an essay in defense of MMFR, and how everyone criticizing it is wrong beyond belief. Then I realized that I'd already done just that, back in February, for the BOFFYs. (Unfortunately I had to relive the fact that this forum basically collectively used TFA for jizz material in the awards voting. Not one of our finer moments, to be honest. I'd be worried about the same thing happening this year with Rogue One, but Rogue One is actually pretty great.)

I saw Hardcore Henry in theaters, by far the lowest grossing, in terms of initial runs. I think the next lowest I saw was Kubo. Though I think the winner is Mad Max Fury Road: Black and Chrome, which earned $422k in one week of release. Some low grossing stuff between Henry and MMFR that I caught on dvd and streaming: Jane Got a Gun, The Little Prince, The Boy and the Beast. Stuff lower than MMFR on video & streaming: April & the Extraordinary World. And I guess Rurouni Kenshin: Origins, which apparently had a theatrical release where it earned about $30k. Though it came out in Japan four years ago and had a small US release around the same time.

You must not have watched the same movie I did. Without getting into spoiler territory, I'd say he might have the best character arc in the film. It's incredibly powerful.

Logan is probably my most anticipated. Ghost in the Shell is easily my least.

If they want more awards consideration, they'll have to do two things: 1. Spend more time on the production, particularly the writing. 2. Increase the animation budget by at least 2/3rds.

120/310 isn't controversial. 200/425... That's controversial.

Well, it's not a success, yet, but it does look likely. After Thursday, I'll plug both into my simple, stupid projector to see what sort of runs each would need to come out on top.

Pulling this from the Thursday thread, because it'll be archived soon. I have to disagree with this. The two characters work together from a storytelling perspective in a way that wouldn't be possible if they had been combined, and they do so to serve a very important purpose: these are the characters through which the Force is viewed in the film. (I'm going to try to keep this entirely spoiler free. If I stray to far, someone can spoiler tag it.) If you take the bare plot of the film, it's actually something that could be told without any reference to the Force whatsoever. The Saga films are all about the Force. It's the primary motivation for the Skywalker clan stories, and as such, the characters are heavily steeped in it. The moments of Force skepticism come pretty much entirely from Han Solo in episode IV. After that, everyone's a believer, because everyone is around actual Force users. (This skepticism could have been revisited in TFA with Rey, but they didn't really do anything there, so when Han gives it "it's true, all of it" speech, it feels out of left field; he's arguing against something that isn't stated.) So Rogue One could have been told without any Force reference, but because it's a large step removed, they actually had a great advantage: they can show what belief in the Force is like for people who don't experience it every day. And thus we have Chirrut and Baze. They're paired characters, but they're done in terms of contrasts. We've got the blind and sighted. The believer and the skeptic. The monk and the soldier. Short and long hair. And so on and so forth. By doing the characters in this way, the film presents a dualistic view of the Force. Everything about Chirrut's fervent belief in the Force, and himself being part of it, is contrasted with Baze's disregard. But despite their fundamental differences, the two are partners, have a caring and close relationship, and shore up the other's shortcomings. If you removed Baze from the equation, you'd still have Donnie Yen's badass Zaitoichi, yes, but he'd just be a believer with a few more action scenes, not a part of an active, philosophical dialogue. His faith in the Force needs that questioning presence. He would be considerably less interesting without Baze to provide that contrast. Adding a bit of didactic exposition to explain his character wouldn't be better.

Moana made 4.16m on Thursday. 4.3m is an increase of about 3%.

The forum tends to collectively underpredict DWA films, especially non-sequels. I won't be surprised if Boss Baby pulls in Home numbers.

If an actor isn't on screen for at least 50%of the scenes, their presence is a waste. Alec Baldwin in Glengarry Glen Ross? Total waste. Ned Beatty in Network? Crap use of an actor.

18m is believable for Moana after this past week.

It's worrisome that I look at a CJohn predict and go, "Yeah, that's reasonable."

So, last year for the New Year's weekend this happened: Just saying, I'm feeling a lot of pressure this weekend.