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edroger3

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Everything posted by edroger3

  1. edroger3
    FD is around 420MYen, sub 10% drop - passes 3BYen /30M$. Godzilla 600M/2day 800M/3day
  2. edroger3
    Usually the animated movies are made with the hope to sell toys. Or at least this is I have heard during my more than twenty years working in this market. So we can predict the boxoffice results of an animated blockbuster basing on how much the studios are convinced to sell the toys related and how much they decide to invest on its promotion. Think to the Minions movie: despite it was pure shit, was very easy to predict the billion, cause the monster promotion budget (600M$!) that was almost all provided by the licensing partners that was sure to sell tons of toys, gadgets and more and more items. We really need the 4th toy story, the 2nd incredibles, the 3rd desplicable or a new princess story? I don't know, but I know that all of those are very very able to sell toys.
  3. edroger3
    I don't think we will see F2 in next few years. Disney knows well that the wave of first movie isn't coming to an end and tries to milk the cow in every possible way (theme parks, Broadway, cruises, app & videogames). Other, more important, the big licensing partners, mainly Hasbro and Lego, are putting the mouse house under pressure for new partnership, as the sales of Star Wars related items aren't so great as expected overseas and, by now, Frozen is always at the top of the whishlist . So the creative team behind F2 is now involved in other "co-financed" projects and the developement of the cinematic sequel is delayed. The most important of those is "Frozen Northern Lights", a brand new story in partnership with Lego that will be released in late 2016: there will be a tv serie, books and obviously toys. (I remember you that in 2015 the top seller among Lego items was the "Elsa ice Castle" building set). Wel'll see.
  4. edroger3
    Finding Dory ending 2nd week.
  5. edroger3
    Actuals for One Piece: 740.000 admissions and 1,155Byen, way better than estimates cause very high 3d/4d share: average ticket price 1,560.
  6. edroger3
    The reason of this fact is that Disney don't want to waste money in p&a in countries where can't sell toys and merchandising. This happens with almost all their brands including Star Wars and The Avengers. According to many experts (I work in Toys/Entertainment area) the "really ubiquitous" brands among cinematic properties are only Minions and Frozen.
  7. edroger3
    Finding Dory One Piece (very estimate)
  8. edroger3
    Finding Dory first week (revised)
  9. edroger3
    Battle For #1 Animated WW
  10. edroger3
    This is possible: for to make estimates based on Mimorin numbers we need to know 1) the % vs total tickets sold - 2)the average ticket price. For example the average ticket price could be lower for the holiday monday (maybe there were more childrens among moviegoers than sat and sun) or the Mimorin market share could be different for this day. Usually for the first days of release those two numbers are still uncertain, and the predictions could be wrong, while after 2/3 weeks, with more reliable datas, they are accurate (but not perfect, obviously). BTW I haven't seen actuals for monday yet. We'll see.
  11. edroger3
    Finding Dory
  12. edroger3
    OW in Japan could be 7M$ thanks to a big Sat/Sun increase
  13. edroger3
    Japanese OD looks like 2,6-2,8M$.
  14. edroger3
    Finding Dory vs Frozen - Battle for #1 animated WW
  15. edroger3
    For 2016 releases there are more 100m$+ movies in China than in USA.
  16. edroger3
    Alice 2 OD 1,3/1,4M$, less than 10% saturation.
  17. edroger3
    It seems that Moana is directed by Musker & Clements (also credited as screenwriters), 126 years of age combined. For M&C It is the 7th Disney Classic, the 2nd produced by John Lasseter and the first in CGI. Among their works we all remeber Aladdin and The Little Mermaid as Disney golden era masterpieces, then Hercules and more recently Treasure Planet and The Princess and The Frog. If the quality of their work continues the decreasing trend from 1990's to 2010's, poor Moana. However Moana is a musical, so will be important to see the quality of songs and soundtrack. Btw the authors are in the worst possible position: just after one of the the most successful musical in history. Obviously we don't know much yet about the plot, but at first glance the characters seem weak and the story has nothing of new or interesting and without good music and catcy song Moana could be another TGD.
  18. edroger3
    Horrible weeks for the boxoffice here. (Holidays, Hot weather, Eurocup with Italian team on fire) Some numbers (in Euro), almost all disappointing, as at Sunday The Conjuring 2 total: 930.950 - Opens similar to first movie Now You See Me 2 total: 2.369.205 3 weeks in play - First movie 4.423.000 Alice Through the Looking Glass total: 6.258.999 - 5 weeks in play. Alice 1 was five times bigger. The Nice Guys total: 1.893.615 X-Men: Apocalypse total: 5.225.606 6 weeks in play - Xmen DOFP 6.579.929 Angry Birds total: 2.210.866 - 2 weeks in play - 63% 2nd weekend. Warcraft total: 3.403.663 - 4 weeks in play Pelé: Birth of a Legend total: 1.923.230 Nothing of interesting until late August.
  19. edroger3
    20%
  20. edroger3
    Adm U.L. = MIMORIN ADMISSIONS (USUAL LOCATIONS) Tot (K) = TOTAL ADMISSIONS/1000
  21. edroger3
  22. edroger3
    5B blockbuster level will be passed on Saturday
  23. edroger3
    If Alice 2 will be able to pass 15M, Disney, in the cinematic season 2015/2016, will have 6 movies over 10M, that combined will pass 100M euros.
  24. edroger3
    2,159,394 € in 5 days with 304,141 tickets sold: X-Men: Apocalypse is #1 after the long weekend, but did not replicate what was done in 2014 from Days of Future Past. In that case, in fact, Singer went with 2,342,725 euro in 4 days and 322,016 tickets sold. It did worse even Deadpool, who in mid-February was able to collect € 2,961,254 in four days with 418,774 tickets sold. It was obviously reasonable to expect more from Fox mutants. in third Captain America: Civil War, came to € 10,590,182 Total. The last Marvel/Disney release has exceeded the 10,532,359 Euros of Batman v Superman and the 10,282,231 euro of The Jungle Book, now chasing the 11,266,314 euro of Zootropolis. Next week Alice 2 arrives: the predecessor is the third biggest foreign movie ever here, with 30,4 Meuros (inflated by a crazy 3D share).
  25. edroger3
    I repeat: this isn't love/hate. I work in toys/entertainment market and I say which I see every day. Stop. If in my shop the products related to Zoo or IO would sell more than those of Frozen I would be the happiest person on earth. But, unfortunately, they sell one hundred times less.
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