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Quigley

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  1. Quigley
    In contrast to the expectation that it will pass DH2, which isn't realistic, even though it is possible (and no, I don't think the use of mulitpliers is accurate enough to predict the final gross because Frozen's mulitplier has been inflated by almost four weeks of holidays), the expectation that it will pas the Avengers' OS ($895M) is more -if not highly- likely and, given what it has achieved, a realistic possibility.
  2. Quigley
    In unrelated news: Can't wait for Big Hero 6 trailer tomorrow.
  3. Quigley
    If you think about it, this demostrates how Disney is able to produce such a diverse set of movies, all of which are not only commercially super-successful but also have an above-average quality, at least.
  4. Quigley
    I was being sarcastic. But even if the probability is 0.00000000000000000000001%, it's still a probability.
  5. Quigley
    I'll be happy once it out-grosses Gravity worldwide ($716M). That will be it.
  6. Quigley
    I'm not sure if anyone has pointed it out but on Monday, it surpassed Iron Man 3's overseas gross ($806.4M) to become the highest-grossing film of 2013 outside North America. Next stop, in what appears to be an almost guaranteed outcome, Frozen will surpass The Avengers' $895.2M to become the highest-grossing Disney film overseas. Successive record-holders were The Lion King, Finding Nemo, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Alice in Wonderland, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Marvel's The Avengers. Excluding Lion King and the Avengers, the rest have earned an average of more than $100M in Japan. Every year since 2010, Disney has broken its overseas record. Alice (2010) gave way to Pirates 4 (2011) which was out-grossed by The Avengers (2012). In 2013, I was slightly disappointed that Disney wouldn't achieve a new record, but it turns out I was wrong. Of course, by the time Frozen surpasses The Avengers, it will be mid-2014. Therefore, we will have to wait less than a year for it to happen again (when Avengers 2 out-grosses Frozen and hopefully earns more than $1 billion outside North America). It will soon re-claim its position as the Disney movie that earned the most money in 2014. Cap 2 is at $700M and won't earn more than $720M. Frozen made 1206.3 - 530.4 = $675.3M in 2014 which will soon pass $700M and hopefully $800M too. [update:] And in order to avoid dissapointing die-hard enthusiasts, of course there is a possibility that Frozen might reach $1 billion overseas, but let's not keep our hopes up at this point.
  7. Quigley
    He won't. If you notice, he is quite aware how inaccurate his figures are. He always reports records based on national currency, even if that contradicts his gross in dollars. For example, he said that Toy Story 3 is the second-biggest Western animated film in Japan (which is true in yen), although he reported the gross for Toy Story 3 in dollars (which is higher than Finding Nemo). http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2904&p=.htm
  8. Quigley
    We've discussed this. He uses the weekend's rate. 18,392,876,304 yen / 101.49 = $181,228,459 These are exactly the numbers you will find here: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=20&currency=local&p=.htm and here: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=20&p=.htm So they are not accurate. If you think about it, the rate started at ~101.3 and has been higher ever since until it started falling last week. This means the gross in dollars should be less than $181.2M My calculations say $179.9M (this is based on the reported yen figures at BOM which has it at 18.39B yen, not 18.53 yen, so there could be a slight deviation from the actual of about 0.14B yen / 0.1015 = $1.38M)
  9. Quigley
    The yen exchange rate has fallen below what it was on Frozen's opening weekend. For the entire time in between it was higher. This means it will approach HP7-P2 at a faster pace, especially if this drop continues.
  10. Quigley
    If in its 11th weekend it earns more than $6.9M, which is essentially guaranteed, it will have earned more than what it earned on the 11th weekend (of wide release) in North America ($6.87M) http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=frozen2013.htm
  11. Quigley
    Yeah, but in an ideal situation, given that you have figures for all invidual territories, they should add up to that total. But they don't because, well... because Subers.
  12. Quigley
    That is why, if you add up the total grosses from each country on this website, you won't get $805.8M. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=frozen2013.htm
  13. Quigley
    LOL. They probably did miss the "0". However, the total gross is too high. 18.52 / 182.75 *100 = 101.34. No way that is the average exchange rate for Frozen's run. It's too low. It is the current exchange rate and, in other words, THR is as retarded as BOM, they use the latest weekend's exchange rate to calculate the total gross in dollars. I know this may sound disappointing but I think that is what all American BO websites do for individual country grosses. So we can never now what rank a film has in its country unless we know the gross in national currency.
  14. Quigley
    Just because Subers calculates the gross in a wrong way doesn't mean Disney does that too. Subers uses the total gross reported by Disney for overall OS gross, not what he would get if he added up all the individual country grosses as he calculated them.
  15. Quigley
    The moral lesson is not to always trust Goolge with the first result it presents.
  16. Quigley
    I know a film that would out-gross Frozen! Pixar's Pacific Rim
  17. Quigley
    oh, I see. But HP7 - P1 is a good comp for Alice since they're both fantasy films based on books and were released in 2010 (although arguably, HP7 - P1 wasn't in 3D)
  18. Quigley
    Once again, above ¥800M!!! This is unbelievable. Higher than weekend #1, #7 and #9. Should we be expecting another increase this weekend? Well, with Monday at +41% from last Monday, I see no reason why we shoudln't.
  19. Quigley
    I think you mean Harry Potter 7 - Part 1 losing to Alice (both were released in 2010).
  20. Quigley
    I find Frozen's run in Japan very agonising. It is the one and only rare market where films are not at all front-loaded. Films that are very front-loaded in the US (e.g. 2x multiplier) can get a 4x multiplier in Japan and so on. However, this makes everything move very slowly. Yes, Frozen is capable of having decreases smaller than 10% but that just means our expectations rise higher and higher and we have to wait more and more for them to come true. And also, ONE WEEKEND with a very high drop (e.g. -30%) from now on could be enough to destroy all our hopes. In the US, I always think: worst-case scenario is -50% (the times the decrease is greater than 50% are very few). So I adjust my expectations according to that. But for animated films, and especially for Frozen, the mulitpliers have been so high that I've got bored of waiting for milestones to be crossed (and for Deathly Hallows - Part 2 we might have to wait until October). No other film since 2010 (when I started observing the box office) has had such a lengthy and agonising run. It's almost been six months since Frozen was first released and its run has honestly started being painful. The biggest problem is that I can't let it go.
  21. Quigley
    Even if all this is true, I'm pretty sure there are lewd people out there who are cowards and that's not exactly survival of the fittest. Regardless, obviously in the current social and cultural context that you live, you won't get anything done if you're lewd, so maybe reconsider your way of interaction with other people. And I'm sure Ray Subers would only respond sensibly if your emails were less aggressive, offensive and if they showed that you would respect him given that he improved the accuracy of his website. Otherwise, he obviously has the power to ignore you.
  22. Quigley
    We should be expecting him to tweet any time now about receiving a threatening email that guaranteed Frozen will surpass $300M in Japan.
  23. Quigley
    OK, I must admit that each new milestone Frozen apporached (and eventually achieved) was mind-bending, but if it surpasses Harry Potter 7 - Part 2 in worldwide gross, I might actually blow my head off.
  24. Quigley
    As discussed extremely intensely for the whole of last week, the $164.4M Japan total and the $790.3M total of last week were both underestimated. This is confirmed by this week's update for the OS total: $805,800,000 Iron Man 3 will be gone by next Sunday the latest.
  25. Quigley
    I would be disaapointed given the expectations that I had due to Friday's number. But overall, that would be a very impressive opening.
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