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Quigley

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  1. Quigley
    Maleficent: No one can make an accurate prediction unless it's done by chance. Saturday could increase 37% like Oz or just 3% like SWATH (Alice is in the middle). However, rather disappointingly compared to its Thursday late-night number, its OD is lower than Oz's X-Men:DOFP: Lowest second Friday among Memorial openers above $85M (around $9M). $30-32M weekend. Steep drop as expected. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=memorialdayshow.htm AMW: I don't even care. Godzilla: Another drop of about -65% for the weekend. The $200M mark is in doubt. TASM 2: first drop that looks to be less than 50%, since it opened. It will barely scrape $200M. Source: Deadline http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/box-office-disneys-maleficent-spells-success-a-million-ways-to-die-in-the-west-side-saddled/
  2. Quigley
    So it's headed for another ~$13M week (Mon-to-Sun). I really hope there is a double feature release with Maleficent in the US. It could add at least $5M to its total - if not more, so it will need less in Japan to reach HP7:P2.
  3. Quigley
    Thursday midnight or late-night earnings - Opening weekend numbers SWATH $1.38M - $56.2M Oz $2M - $79.1M World War Z $3.6M - $66.4M Alice in Wonderland $3.9M - $116.1M Maleficent $4.2M Maleficent will almost definitely end the weekend behind Alice, but SWATH's amd WWZ's weekend grosses are well within reach. I think it could surpass $70M for the weekend. Whether it can surpass Oz though, remains to be seen. WOM or reviews don't seem that good, but then again, that was the same for Oz (and Godzilla too). The "bad WOM" effect only kicked in during later weekends. Also, does anyone know if Frozen will be available as a double feature with Maleficent?
  4. Quigley
    But it's amazing that his post resulted in a mass debate that filled more than 2 pages on the forum in just a few hours.
  5. Quigley
    I don't get your point. Frozen is in 3D as well.
  6. Quigley
    Well if that's true, it means the DVD release may have no impact on the box office. Avatar only crashed when Alice arrived.
  7. Quigley
    Does anybody know if there will be a double feature release of Frozen with Maleficent in North America. That could help decrease the difference between Frozen and HP7:P2. It helped Tangled reach $200M, while John Carter and Oz all saw increase when they were released as a double feature: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2011&wknd=20&p=.htm http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2012&wknd=18&p=.htm http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2013&wknd=18&p=.htm
  8. Quigley
    Frozen WILL beat Titanic. It will be averaging at least $11M until its DVD release (thanks to T E Lawrence, we retain minute hopes that it will be delayed). There are 7 weeks left until the DVD release so 194 + 11 x 7 = $271M. That means $45M left to reach SA. If the average I predict is true, then there is still hope. But even if not, Titanic is going down.
  9. Quigley
    To be honest, your determination is impressive but I don't think they will change it now that they've announced it.
  10. Quigley
    Lol, I did believe this was gonna happen, but I never realised that this "one single film" would actually be itself.
  11. Quigley
    Impressed and surprised but tlet's see how it holds until Subday.
  12. Quigley
    I am so glad Wreck-It Ralph wasn't a musical. In other unrelated news, talking about being relaxed and all, you guys don't seem to be capable of relaxing either. It is just a movie into which you built too high expectations. Decrease your expectations and you might be surprised.
  13. Quigley
    Any women interest will evaporate and men aren't enough to keep it going on their own.
  14. Quigley
    I thought that BOM had it at $171,100,000 and that $171,080,000 is an updated number.
  15. Quigley
    I don't think NA will honor the alien robots like it did for previous instalments. I doubt it will get to $300M. And if anything, Europe's contribution will fall dramatically. It's up to Latin America (not so much) and Asia (minus Japan) to save it, but I'm not convinced it will happen. I say NA: $260M and outside NA: $720M for WW $980M. Pirates 5 has big potential but only if it is a good film. I think many fans (including me) were disppointed with the 4th so unless the next one is very good, many will avoid watching it (ticket-price inflation and the booming Chinese market can still help it reach $1B, but no one can say for sure).
  16. Quigley
    Week chart for X-Men:DOP please?
  17. Quigley
    By the way, I still don't see this how movie can beat Last Stand's NA total. The drop this weekend will be at best -60% giving it about $35-37M. That is just $2M more than Last Stand's second weekend and it is trailing that film by $11-12M. It can get to $225M I believe, but not $234M (Last Stand's NA total).
  18. Quigley
    Tuesdays have become very strong in the past 2 years. It wasn't something inherent to the movie. You will notice this for many movies compared to 2010 for example. That's why the Tue-to-Wed drop is always so big.
  19. Quigley
    Trans4mers won't underperform. Being the last on the list, it won't suffer from post-release competition. And it is guaranteed to open higher than the others. Even in North America, usually the last movie on a long list will have better holds than the rest, even if it has a lower opening weekend. For example, Planes last summer opened lower than Smurfs 2 and Turbo (both had 5-day openings), but it out-grossed both of them in the end.
  20. Quigley
    Dat true.
  21. Quigley
    I really hope all these predictions come true, but it will only take ONE SINGLE FILM that will overperform in the next 2 months to ruin everything. It's a lot to hope for.
  22. Quigley
    The weekend actual is right next to the total and is updated to $171.08M. Virtually no change from the estimate. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=xmen2014.htm
  23. Quigley
    DOFP could have sharp drops in the following weekends. If it surpasses Cap 2, it will be by a small margin.
  24. Quigley
    I think it will drop a reasonable 50-53% (including Japan opening). So around 52-55% drop in holdovers. Total between $320M and $325M by Sunday. Very impressive.
  25. Quigley
    $303M
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