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Quigley

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Everything posted by Quigley

  1. Quigley
    I agree that X-Men:DOFP's early performance is promising and in no way disappointing. I was never expecting it to top Cap 2 anyway. But as May release, people might have expected it to do better than it did (and might actually; it's very early to tell).
  2. Quigley
    I'm just happy that Spidey 2 has been crushed. It's headed for 60% drop from its last OS weekend (which was $31.5M). I really hope it doesn't surpass Cap 2 in worldwide grosses. Probably it will get to $485M by Sunday ($24M from Monday to Sunday). This means it probably won't earn more than $510M by the end of its run (with Maleficent and Edge of Tomorrow coming soon). Add in $200M in North America and it might only reach $710M. Cap 2 is at $705M but will earn more than $710M by the end of its run. It will be a photo-finish but let's hope Cap 2 stays on top. X-Men's big opening in China doesn't convince me it will do well in other countries. Also, it will be very front-loaded in China due to A LOT of competition. So, Godzilla and DOFP won't be a challenge for Cap 2's WW gross either. Of course, it doesn't stand a chance against Trans4mers and HtTYD2 but it's still funny that 3 movies in May all failed to out-gross an April release.
  3. Quigley
    What's the difference between 8pm or 10pm? Either way, it was only the very keen fanboys who went on Thursday night. Other people don't even know because the advertised release date is May 23 or theywon't go until the weekend arrives. http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-x-men-days-706776
  4. Quigley
    Well, consider that it opened to $7.53M in Japan 2 months ago. It has made $185M (>24x multiplier). It saw an increase in the last weekend's box office with no holidays during that time. Last weekend was also above opening weekend (after 2 months!!!!) This weekend is expected to increase over the previous, or, in a worst-case scenario, have a minute drop (below 5%). If you can bet against it, do it. But chances are that it will sooner or later get to $315M (what it needs to earn in Japan to surpass DH2 WW). Obviously, this will happen during or after Summer holidays.
  5. Quigley
    X-Men's midnight number was lower than other 2014 blockbusters, but higher than Fast and Furious 6 ($6.5M) which also opened on Memorial Day weekend (in 2013). This means it can go either way and make more than F&F6 on opening day ($38.7M) or less than other 2014 blockbusters ($35.2-38.4M). Since this seems a bit contradictory, I think it will once again (and for a fourth time in the last 2 months) end up between $35-40M. This means it is unlikely to earn more than $100M on its 3-day opening weekend (Fri-to-Sun), but it will end up quite close and probably surpass Captain America 2's current 2014 record (F&F6 made $97.4M last year).
  6. Quigley
    I maintain that it'll have a bigger drop than Pirates 4 during the holiday weekend. It started higher during the weekend but they both earned essentially the same amount on their first Thursday.
  7. Quigley
    Does that mean these numbers are underestimated? They add up to $4.27M.
  8. Quigley
    Assuming Sunday was underestimated slightly (say $806M), Mon-Thurs is $5.1M. Wow...
  9. Quigley
    Lol, I was surprisingly wrong.
  10. Quigley
    China Box Office may reach $5 billion this year. With so many Hollywood blockbusters being released in the next month, I think June can break February's record for the highest monthly earnings, so the half-year earnings will cross $2 billion. http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/chinas-2014-box-office-hits-706749
  11. Quigley
    And for a third consecutive week, Screen Daily posted no weekday update for the overseas box office.
  12. Quigley
    use imgur.com to upload it, then click the "Image" feature on this forum and fill in the photo's url (the one that imgur.com says is for IM)
  13. Quigley
    New expectation (although technically, the roller coaster ride of these past few days means that it can still drop 10%) is for it to stay above opening weekend and possibly increase compared to last weekend.
  14. Quigley
    If it continues to bring in more than $10M per week for the next ten weeks (on average), it should get there before the Obon holiday. I hope that if your prediction is wrong, it will be because it was an underestimate. Otherwise, I really wish that it turns out to be true.
  15. Quigley
    I was expecting it to crumble in Wednesday. It's still ahead of Pirates 4's first Wednesday, but I still think it will earn less than that movie over the 3-day and 4-day weekend, i.e. less than $39.8M and $50.0M respectively.
  16. Quigley
    I agree that $7.2M is what everyone is wishing for. The problem is that I can't even decide if that is a high or low expectation.
  17. Quigley
    I agree that it will earn $350-400M. The highest-grossing X-Men film was Wolverine at $280M but w/o 3D.
  18. Quigley
    With 10% drops and the dropping exchange rate, Frozen would surpass HP7:P2 WW.
  19. Quigley
    Some of them are, but not all.
  20. Quigley
    To be honest, you spared yourself a lot of time of refreshing the page and waiting for updates on Frozen's box office. Now you can just scroll through everything in one go.
  21. Quigley
    Prediction for weekend: ¥730M
  22. Quigley
    In contrast to the expectation that it will pass DH2, which isn't realistic, even though it is possible (and no, I don't think the use of mulitpliers is accurate enough to predict the final gross because Frozen's mulitplier has been inflated by almost four weeks of holidays), the expectation that it will pas the Avengers' OS ($895M) is more -if not highly- likely and, given what it has achieved, a realistic possibility.
  23. Quigley
    In unrelated news: Can't wait for Big Hero 6 trailer tomorrow.
  24. Quigley
    If you think about it, this demostrates how Disney is able to produce such a diverse set of movies, all of which are not only commercially super-successful but also have an above-average quality, at least.
  25. Quigley
    I was being sarcastic. But even if the probability is 0.00000000000000000000001%, it's still a probability.
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