The difference between this and Minions is that Minions won't go on Disney+. Even in non-pandemic times, I think Disney's animated movies being home for free in a couple months (sometimes even less!) really makes a lot of families more likely to wait, since it'll cost less (especially since inflation is causing people to look over their entertainment budgets) and kids are used to seeing Disney movies at home whenever they want. Folks don't really associate Illumination with either Peacock or even Universal in the same way, so that film should be fine in the end.