Eric is Anxious

Ehh, Disney will force out like 5 spin-off shows to Avatar within the next 3 years of Avatar 2's release. It'll be fine.

Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 27 249 6254 3.98% Total Seats Sold Today: 6 Comp 0.929x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-17 (17.99M) 4.527x of The Conjuring 3 T-17 (44.39M)

Again, these Fandango lists are hit hard by recency bias. Spider-Verse had its first trailer come out during the polling process. When you factor this being the biggest, splashiest new trailer, and Spidey-Mania in general during those first three weeks of December...yeah, that's going to boost it up quite a bit. Same reason why Avatar's only at #7. There's no marketing materials for some of the other films above it, but Jurassic and Thor are franchises that are in the limelight more, so it makes sense they're above Avatar, despite it being an easy contender for #1 next year. The thing about these top 10s is that their exact rankings don't really matter too much. It's more just a signal about what should be comfortable, safe bets to be some of the year's biggest hits, and to a lesser extent how well the promotions and advertising for the winter/spring fare are going to hook the masses, since they have more marketing materials out there. Yeah there's one or two films that don't make much, but the likes of Glass/Dumbo/Wrinkle in Time/Fifty Shades is, yet again, recency bias, as well as poor critical reception. Basically, take these things with face value, and only on the assumption that the majority of the top 10 will be in the overall top 10 of the year.

To be fair, Fandango polled people in the first three weeks of December, before Doctor Strange 2 was really given the huge spotlight it has now. Recency bias is always a factor with these "most anticipated" lists.

Honestly a Wonka/Aquaman 2 swap seems like the best of both worlds. Wonka fits as good counterprogramming for kids and older auds, and musicals have performed well in December many times before (yes I know about West Side Story and Cats, don't lecture me please). And hey, Timothee as a Christmas present sounds really, really, really, really, really darn good.

She's not...in those movies?

Honestly I think Sonic isn't affected too much by the lack of families. No joke, when I saw the first Sonic movie, my showing only had like two kids in the audience. It was weird.

Fair enough. In that case... FYC Derek DelGaudio's In & Of Itself for Best Picture No joke, this is a rare film/show/whatever that I recommend to everybody. It will blow you away and make you really dig deep into yourself and the people around you in a way no other movie this year has achieved.

Days of Future Past: 234M Fantastic Beasts 1: 234M Apocalypse: 155M Grindelwald: 159M Dark Phoenix: 66M Dumbledore: ???

Dude, we get it.

I already said this like two weeks ago, but even if you take out the Rowling/Depp stuff, I just don't think Fantastic Beasts has really captured the attention of folks, outside of the hardcore Potter fans. Anecdotal, but the reactions about the first Fantastic Beasts around me weren't anything spectacular and Grindelwald turned away a lot of people. And keep in mind, I was a massive Potter fanatic growing up and made a lot of friends through that series. Deathly Hallows Part II had me choked up when I saw it opening day, and I still really love a lot of the aspects of the original books and movies (Screw Joanne tho). But even I can't bring myself to care. 75M DOM sounds right to me.

Do recordings of stage shows, such as Come From Away on Apple or In & Of Itself on Hulu, count for any categories? I understand they don't necessarily have the same film language, but both still rely on important conventions of film in these specific iterations. In & Of Itself in particular has a lot of moments and sequences that were not in the stage show.

I mean it makes sense on paper why they would all sign on. McKay's been on a hot streak at the awards circuit, he's a nice, likable guy, it has a good hook, and you get to work on something "important". A lot can happen from signing on to production to editing.

Yeah the thing about these Fandango polls is that they are very heavily slanted towards recency bias. Spider-Verse's trailer dropped when polling first started, which helped keep it in the conversation. Avatar 2 has fewer marketing materials, so it's harder for it to stand out to films that have trailers or are in franchises that are currently in the public eye, yet it'll be the biggest movie of next year. Really, these polls are both a reaffirmation about what should be a comfortable, safe bet of what will be a hit (and really, all of the top 10 are) and also a look into how the winter/spring lineup are looking, since they are getting more trailers and promos and ads right now. The lack of Morbius or Turning Red on any of these lists is arguably foreboding, though not really anything too scary. Turning Red especially, because it's an original piece overshadowed by all the big family sequels and spin-offs.

Full Deadline reports, not that this stuff really matters

Just saw the full list on Deadline btw:

Genuinely blindsided me when I first read it only a minute ago. A brutal loss for sure. RIP