James

Are we really doing the DOM vs OS thing again? I think a lot of people forget that OS is the only reason why we are getting 200m budgeted movies at all. SW aside (and not even that every time), there is no franchise capable of living based on DOM profits alone. In fact, most franchises nowadays get made with a WW audience in mind. Fact is that TLJ's drop OS is nothing to be proud about. The gross is still good, at least for now. But you simply can't feed audiences who don't like smth the same thing again and again and expect different results (and I am talking here about markets where SW basically died since TFA).

Lol, everyone who thinks Disney doesn't give a damn about the divisive reception of TLJ is out of his/her mind. You don't get where Disney got by ignoring what's in front of you and thinking short term. Disney didn't buy Lucasfilm to make 3-4 SW movies. They bought them to bring in profits for years to come. And like it or not, that also means OS. You know why? Because SW did all it could do DOM wise. But there's an entire world out there, not only for movies, but for toys and merchandise too. And Disney clearly cares. I haven't seen more advertisement for any movie in my life here. There's an add or a SW toy spot every 10 minutes on any channel. But the movie still fell quite a bit. In the end, movies are only a small part of the equation. They are more or less a huge advertisement for merchandise. And if they don't do well, merchandise will also drop. There was a really interesting article someone posted a few days ago about the SW toy sales shipments dropping 40% from TFA 2 years ago and 20% from RO. In the end, Disney is a huge enterprise. They aren't Lionsgate who just looks to make some profit. They want the big money. That is why they only do franchise movies. And if they can't break out in emerging markets like China, then that is a big problem for them.

All we know right now is that it has half of Dunkirk's presales with the same number of showtimes. Dunkirk made 50m total. SW is much more presales heavy than a WW2 movie. How is that not a realistic prediction?

What would happen to the forums if TLJ actually drops today instead of increasing?

That would certainly be interesting. Sci Fi is definitely Nolan's power house.

I think there is still some power left in the TF brand. I don't think Disney will buy it, but WB would likely reinforce that brand.

Not really. The only reason the drop is not sharper is that at this point in it's run TFA hadn't opened in China. Same with TLJ. TFA did 124m in China. TLJ will likely make around 24m... When all is said and done, the drop will be way worse OS than DOM.

And to continue my point: The real story here is not the DOM fall from TFA, but the OS one. I know that when you have a brand that can make so much money DOM it is easier to overlook OS returns, but even so, TLJ will lose about 45% of it's audience OS, despite generally better ER than in 2015. It will make a bit over 100m more than RO. And that is with countries that love SW having a better retention rate than DOM). But all the others (Asia, Latin America) had huge falls. I know Disney is afraid to change the formula too much, but the law of diminishing returns will eventually force their hand methinks. It is weird really, since they seem to do so well with their other properties in Asia/LA.

I just caught up with the meltdowns. If anything, TLJ has a super interesting run. I know someone already said that there's a chance this ends up under BATB WW, and I agree. If it indeed follows RO and makes 610-620m DOM then it becomes more than a possibility. We still have to wait a few more days to be sure, but OS looks to finish under 700m. Actually, with TLJ doing half of Dunkirk's presales in China (and Dunkirk made 50m total there), not even 650m is sure. I find it hilarious that someone quoted an article a few pages back saying TLJ might only open to 30m in China when it's total might not even reach that.

So 66m over the 3-day weekend frame. Last week, TLJ did 170m over the 3-day weekend (it did 60.8m on Wed and Thu for the reported 231m OS OW). That is a 61% drop from last week. Even with bigger days this week and China on the way, I don't see how it makes 700m OS.

Totally understandable though. NZ is gorgeous!

But that is not exactly true. I might be wrong, but didn't the OW breakdown for TLJ reveal quite a low number of young viewers? The numbers are so huge because of the 4 quad appeal, but SW viewers tend to be older than other franchises like Marvel.

This. I am one of those people who loves the prequels (well, 2 and 3 actually), despite obvious problems, LOVES the books and the extended universe, but doesn't like where the franchise is headed. That makes me a combination of a fan and a hater I guess?

So the fact that I love both LOTR and HP to death and I like both Brown and King makes me a weirdo? I don't get why there should be a comparison between Tolkien and Rowling. They have vastly different styles. And they both brought a massive contribution to culture and making people read for a change. I was one of those people. I would know.

I somewhat agree with this. The thing with SW is that it has cross generational appeal. That is both a blessing and a curse. It can make obscene amounts of money, but it will always be hard to please everyone, even more so than in the case of ordinary blockbusters. For new fans it is not daring enough, for old fans it is too daring. It is really hard to find a middle ground. I am guessing we will see the same thing with the inevitable HP sequel/reboot.

For TLJ: - The RT audience score dropped to 55% from 56% yesterday - The IMDB score dropped to 7.8 from 7.9 yesterday - The BO.com Twitter pos/neg ratio dropped to 3:1 from 5:1 yesterday (it kept dropping since OD, when it was 12:1 I think) Call it what you want, but the movie is at least divisive.

Was the schedule that different from TFA? That is a horrible drop. The weekend was only 20% down from TFA, but the Monday is almost 50% down? Was TFA's first Monday an international holiday?

So now the RT score is all bots? Lmao, give me a break. It already has over 115k votes. even setting aside the 50k it had before release, that is a good enough number to gauge WOM. For further evidence, look at BO.com's Twitter Pos:Neg ratio which kept dropping since OD. I remember TFA had around 20-1. TLJ has 5-1. I am so curious about how it will hold tomorrow. I think the increase won't be bigger than 5%. That is, if it doesn't stay flat.

Because the only clue we have so far regarding the reception is that score. And that is BO related. It's not like I say 'HAHAHA, LOOK AT THIS'.

So the fact that I keep updating it as it falls is trolling?

The WOM might be a bit mixt and help. IDK. AUDIENCE SCORE 60% liked it Average Rating: 3.5/5 User Ratings: 60,342

I just want an OD under DH2.

Me. That is why I post it, duh.

AUDIENCE SCORE 61% liked it Average Rating: 3.5/5 User Ratings: 59,953

Technically, it is accurate to say notmySW now because the prequels, as the OT, where created by the author's mind directly. Does he still have as much of a saying in what Disney does?