James

Definitely IT. People where s surprised when The Conjuring dd what it did WW and IT more than doubled that. It is in a league of it's own.

Olive, how are the presales for TLJ looking compared to Rogue One? Also, would you be kind enough to provide me with a link with for site where you take the numbers from? Thank you!

I think a lot of people are underestimating Paddington. The last animation hit was Coco. And while the family market had some strong contenders, I think the strong reception plus the popularity the first movie gained since release should be enough to push it past 100m. Maybe even 150m.

How so? How could they have know what the reception would be like before the movie came out?

I think the most interesting thing to see will be Disney's reaction to TLJ's numbers. WB was very reactionary with the DCEU reception and in the end that might've done more bad than good. And before anyone replies with the "TLJ will make 1.3B WW, it is a huge hit!" (which it is, but that is not the point), anyone who thinks that an almost 800m WW drop from TFA is what Disney envisioned for TLJ is out of their mind!

Off topic but: I just saw JUNGLE, the Daniel Radcliffe movie, and it was such an amazing survival story. I really don't understand the low RT score. I mean yes, there is no plot twist, but there doesn't have to be. The acting is fantastic and as simple of a story at it was, it was so suspenseful! On another topic, regarding the BRIGHT talk from a few pages ago. I just randomly saw my 19 yo brother watch a music video for one of the songs from the soundtrack. And he said exactly this: I never saw so much advertisement for any movie ever. It is everywhere. And mind you, he has no idea about BO and Netflix isn't even that big here. Combine the marketing barrage with the soundtrack by a lot of popular artists and bang, you have a mini-Suicide Squad. No wonder it is pulling in so many viewers.

There is no way in hell Ep 9 does under 500m. Come on! My 640m prediction from a year ago for TLJ looks to be spot on and I think for Ep 9 the mark to beat is 600m. My prediction is 570m for now.

My TLJ prediction was spot on haha. The rest though...

I think they will make up for that with 3 movies in the WW Top 10.

Do we also post WW predictions here? Avengers 3 - 1.3B Jurassic World 2 - 1.1B Fantastic Beasts 2 - 1B The Incredibles - 900m Deadpool 2 - 740m Solo - 730m Mulan - 725m Black Panther - 720m Aquaman - 710m Grinch - 700m MI6 / Ready Player One / Marry Poppoins - 650m

Not really a good example. Titanic was a freak of nature, same with Avatar. Even more than that, there were way fewer blockbusters in 1997 than today. Nowadays you have a big movie coming out every other weekend so the GA's attention is divided. And the american market, while having slight ups and downs, is stable around 10-11B for almost 10 years now.

It will finish with around 15m, no?

SW is doing strong internationally in select markets. I don't think the issue here are the number themselves. 600-700m OS is still damn strong in today's climate. The problem is that probably no SW movie will touch 1B OS again for many many years to come, because SW keeps being strong in those select territories where the prequels too where strong, but fails to impress in emerging markets (most of Asia and Latin America). The reason why there are brands that make 800-1b OS nowadays is exactly those markets. SW is super strong in UK, Australia, Japan, France, Germany (and a few other smaller markets). In fact it is so strong that it makes the fall seem less big. But that doesn't change the fact that these markets have already hit their peak, while the emerging markets are exactly that: still growing. To illustrate my point: Both TFA and RO made almost 50% of their OS gross from those 5 markets. RO made 245m from those markets. DM3 (another big OS franchise) made 240m from those markets, so close enough for a comparison. Still, even though they made almost the same number in those 5 countries, RO ended with 525m OS, while DM3 made 770m. That is a huge 245m difference (difference that is mainly made by Asia and Latin America). At the rate it is going, TLJ will have an even bigger share from those 5 markets than TFA or RO had which means the initial enthusiasm that made TFA reach 1b OS is wearing off. I don't think anyone is saying that SW isn't big OS. Just that it relies heavily on a handful of markets to make it's money. Which is not bad short term, but it reduces a lot it's chances of growing in WW grosses as a franchise.

A bit off topic, but looking at Mojo's studio yearly breakdown, what a crazy year this was for Hollywood! Fox is gone, Paramount had their worst year ever (and looking at their 2018 schedule, things don't look much better, so there's a good chance they will soon be gone too), Weinstein is also looking to disappear. On the other hand, Disney and WB continue to dominate, and Lionsgate looks to fill some of the space left by Fox's (and probably soon Paramount's) exit. They had such a good year (almost 900m DOM). And with all the ups and down, even since they became big in 2012, they always posted good to great yearly results. All in all, in retrospect, it seems like such a crazy year to me!

Are we really doing the DOM vs OS thing again? I think a lot of people forget that OS is the only reason why we are getting 200m budgeted movies at all. SW aside (and not even that every time), there is no franchise capable of living based on DOM profits alone. In fact, most franchises nowadays get made with a WW audience in mind. Fact is that TLJ's drop OS is nothing to be proud about. The gross is still good, at least for now. But you simply can't feed audiences who don't like smth the same thing again and again and expect different results (and I am talking here about markets where SW basically died since TFA).

Lol, everyone who thinks Disney doesn't give a damn about the divisive reception of TLJ is out of his/her mind. You don't get where Disney got by ignoring what's in front of you and thinking short term. Disney didn't buy Lucasfilm to make 3-4 SW movies. They bought them to bring in profits for years to come. And like it or not, that also means OS. You know why? Because SW did all it could do DOM wise. But there's an entire world out there, not only for movies, but for toys and merchandise too. And Disney clearly cares. I haven't seen more advertisement for any movie in my life here. There's an add or a SW toy spot every 10 minutes on any channel. But the movie still fell quite a bit. In the end, movies are only a small part of the equation. They are more or less a huge advertisement for merchandise. And if they don't do well, merchandise will also drop. There was a really interesting article someone posted a few days ago about the SW toy sales shipments dropping 40% from TFA 2 years ago and 20% from RO. In the end, Disney is a huge enterprise. They aren't Lionsgate who just looks to make some profit. They want the big money. That is why they only do franchise movies. And if they can't break out in emerging markets like China, then that is a big problem for them.

All we know right now is that it has half of Dunkirk's presales with the same number of showtimes. Dunkirk made 50m total. SW is much more presales heavy than a WW2 movie. How is that not a realistic prediction?

What would happen to the forums if TLJ actually drops today instead of increasing?

That would certainly be interesting. Sci Fi is definitely Nolan's power house.

I think there is still some power left in the TF brand. I don't think Disney will buy it, but WB would likely reinforce that brand.

Not really. The only reason the drop is not sharper is that at this point in it's run TFA hadn't opened in China. Same with TLJ. TFA did 124m in China. TLJ will likely make around 24m... When all is said and done, the drop will be way worse OS than DOM.

And to continue my point: The real story here is not the DOM fall from TFA, but the OS one. I know that when you have a brand that can make so much money DOM it is easier to overlook OS returns, but even so, TLJ will lose about 45% of it's audience OS, despite generally better ER than in 2015. It will make a bit over 100m more than RO. And that is with countries that love SW having a better retention rate than DOM). But all the others (Asia, Latin America) had huge falls. I know Disney is afraid to change the formula too much, but the law of diminishing returns will eventually force their hand methinks. It is weird really, since they seem to do so well with their other properties in Asia/LA.

I just caught up with the meltdowns. If anything, TLJ has a super interesting run. I know someone already said that there's a chance this ends up under BATB WW, and I agree. If it indeed follows RO and makes 610-620m DOM then it becomes more than a possibility. We still have to wait a few more days to be sure, but OS looks to finish under 700m. Actually, with TLJ doing half of Dunkirk's presales in China (and Dunkirk made 50m total there), not even 650m is sure. I find it hilarious that someone quoted an article a few pages back saying TLJ might only open to 30m in China when it's total might not even reach that.

So 66m over the 3-day weekend frame. Last week, TLJ did 170m over the 3-day weekend (it did 60.8m on Wed and Thu for the reported 231m OS OW). That is a 61% drop from last week. Even with bigger days this week and China on the way, I don't see how it makes 700m OS.

Totally understandable though. NZ is gorgeous!