Wrath

Wk12 - Yes

Cloverfield is moving to April, and thus out of the game, right? I had it at 15th so now I get to add Ferdinand. Humpf. Wish I’d had Wonder.

Eh, people forget that the original Bladerunner was a borderline flop at the box office.

People make fun of Deadline, and their day-specific math is sometimes hilariously awful. But their predictions overall are much better than people give them credit. I spent over a year tracking Thursday predicts for OWs, and no one on this website who predicted reasonably often (for more than ~15% of openers) outperformed Deadline. Our collective median prediction did much better than any one particular person, and even that did worse than Deadline.

Just saw Jumanji. That movie is way more fun than I expected, plus its been a LONG time since Jack Black really killed it in something. Its going to have great legs.

Eh, maybe, I can see it either way, depending on the lighting. I want to comment further, but I really can’t without immediately getting into spoilers. At least, as far as the book is concerned. edit - This probably warrants some explanation. How Wade feels about the other characters, while not knowing who they really are and what they actually look like (and wrestling with whether or not it should matter), is pretty central to the book. So anything dealing with “Art3mis or Aech look like X” is a pretty massive spoiler.

Heh, I went with $222M OW, $700M DOM, and 1.5B WW. I feel pretty good about those. I actually think we're starting to see a bit of SW-fatigue. Not in the sense of dragging them genuinely down, but 3 years in a row (with more to come) will eventually bring SW down to conventional blockbuster status.

I went with exactly 700m in the Winter game. I figure that's at least a moral victory.

Well, obviously. But there's no need to be creepy about it. The form of the message matters. "I strongly disagree with you" and "You're a f**k-tard idiot" both say the same thing, but in different ways.

Well, to be fair, its not actually sexual harassment since he's not talking to her. Its just being creepy, and perhaps whatever the non-employment version is of "creating a hostile work environment".

Iirc, the guy starts out chubby but is actually in pretty good shape by the end of the book. Clearly, the movie is fiddling with the plot, because there is no scene like that in the book. One of the running themes is that Wade doesn't know what any of his friends physically look like. They're kids scattered around the world, so while they're working together on various things, its always virtual. They're not physically in the same place.

He's just living up to the history of his avatar pic. Its... uh... performance art?

1. Star Wars 2. Jumanji 3. The Post 4. Paddington 2 5. Pitch Perfect 3 6. Greatest Showman 7. Insidious 8. Proud Mary

1. Will All The Money in the World Open to more than $7M (3 Day)? 1000 NO 2. Will All The Money in the World Open to more than $10M (3 Day)? 2000 NO 3. Will Last Jedi make more than $64M? 3000 YES 4. Will Greatest Showman make more than $9M? 4000 YES 5. Will Jumanji make more than $40M? 5000 YES 6. Will Molly's Game enter the top 10? 1000 NO 7. Will Father Figures stay above shape of water? 2000 NO 8. Will Downsizing stay above Darkest Hour? 3000 NO 9. Will Phantom Thread have a PTA above $42,000? 4000 YES 10. Will The Post make more than $1M? 5000 YES 11. Will Ferdinand increase on Saturday? 1000 YES 12. Will Pitch Perfect decrease more than 36% on Sunday? 2000 NO 13. Will Coco have a better percentage change than Ferdinand? 3000 YES 14. Will Wonder stay above The Star? 4000 YES 15. Has chas' total lack of knowledge regarding AMerican Xmas box office trends been shown up by this week's questions? 5000 No, we already knew. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Last Jedi make for its 3 day? 65M 2. What will Father Figures' Percentage change be? -30% 3. What will Phantom Thread's PTA be for the Weekend? 35k Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Pitch Perfect 5. Ferdinand 6. Coco 8. Darkest Hour 10. Shape of Water 11. Father Figures

Wk11 - No

I think this week I'm going to test whether its possible to get a score lower than 0%.

I don’t know that its still correct to automatically consider every Pixar release a blockbuster. Inside Out was huge, but other than that its last non-sequel to be a blockbuster was Up and that was 2009. And Cars 3 was pretty disappointing.

Except TFA had gotten Christmas Day by this point and TLJ has not.

Reminds me of Suburbicon. I like Damon generally, but they do have him in common.

Lower multiple on sequel suggests worse WOM than on original movie? Seems legit. Its why RotS had a worse multiplier than AotC, right? WOM was worse?

I haven’t read the whole thread, so, sorry if I’ve missed something, but... What’s wrong with you?

6. Avengers

Part A: 1. Will Jumanji Open to more than $30M (3 Day)? 1000 YES 2. Will Pitch Perfect make more than $30M? 2000 NO 3. Will Downsizing open to more than $14M? 3000 NO 4. Will Greatest Showman open to more than $14M (3Day)? 4000 NO 5. Will the total grosses of the 4 highest new entries by Sunday total more than $100M? 5000 YES 6. Will Last Jedi make more than $115M? 1000 NO 7. Will Father Figures open to more than $7.5M? 2000 NO 8. Will the combined 5 day totals of Jumanji and Greatest Showman be higher than the combined 3 day totals of Father Figures, Pitch Perfect and Downsizing? 3000 YES 9. Will Ferdinand drop more than 10%? 4000 YES 10. Will The Post have a PTA above $47,500? 5000 YES 11. Will Coco remain in the top 7? 1000 NO 12. Will any film in the top 12 increase? 2000 NO 13. Will Justice League stay above Daddy's Home? 3000 YES 14. Will Disaster Artist stay above Orient Express? 4000 YES 15. Will we ever see another rainbow? 5000 NOTHING BUT DOUBLE RAINBOWS! Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Jumanji make for its 3 day? 31M 2. What will Pitch Perfect's Saturday be? 9M 3. What will Last Jedi's PTA be for the Weekend? 19.5K Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Jumanji 4. Greatest Showman 5. Downsizing 7. Father Figures 8. Coco 10. Darkest Hour

My brief, shining moment of competence on the weeklies seems to have drifted away as rapidly and quietly as it blew into town in the first place.

Nuts. So close.