Wrath

Week 10 - Seems unlikely. I’ll go with... No.

So, not a record. What went wrong: SW.

My dad has worked in academia (college professor), in government (federal), and in business. He always said that while government is rough with the politics, it was NOTHING compared to the blood-sport that was academic departmental feuds. He didn’t really know why, but his theory was that the stakes were low overall (really tough to get someone fired or demoted) so everything turned into a battle-to-the-death over principles, especially if it was small. The business world was a cake-walk compared to the other two.

I respect the source material just fine, and while I didn’t love it, I did like it a lot. Feel free to go vent your spleen on RT.

Deal.

Yeah, with numbers as atypical as a Star Wars movie produces, projecting properly can be tricky. So, folks fall back on the best comparables which are... other Star Wars movies. Usually that works fine, but this time I'm a little unsure. I'm still not entirely buying that those User Ratings at RT are legit, but its clear at this point that LJ isn't behaving like TFA or R1, and I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't end up following their patterns.

That Wonder predict is going to be big for Kalo.

Week 9 - Nyet

In Charlottesville, VA - Thursday night: 12/27 showings are sold out Friday: 13/41 showings are sold out Selling out at a much slower pace than TFA, but there are FAR more screens available now. An Alamo Drafthouse opened its doors here over the summer adding another 11 screens, and TFA was a watershed mark in Regal stupidity. Violet Crown opened here about a month before TFA, and Regal announced it would only show movies for which it had the local exclusive. Violet Crown somehow won the right to show TFA and Regal refused to share (instead showing In the Heart of the Sea on like 6 screens), so Violet Crown was the only game in town for TFA. They couldn't have asked for a better launch for their new theater. It was pretty funny. They cancelled everything else and spent over a week showing nothing but TFA on every screen. Regal doesn't do that anymore, so there are significantly more showings for TLJ as there were for TFA. Interestingly, Regal is charging an arm and a leg for tickets (75% of screens are some combination of IMAX, 3D or both, giving adult evening ticket prices ranging from $20.70 to 15.30, compared to $13 for Violet Crown and $12 at Alamo) and they are selling out at a noticeably slower pace. 8/13 Violet Crown showings on Friday are sold out vs 1/12 for Regal.

1. Will Last Jedi Open to more than $185M? 1000 YES 2. Will Last Jedi Open to more than $225M? 2000 NO 3. Will Last Jedi Open to more than $205M?? 3000 YES 4. Will Last Jedi make more than 77.5% of the total gross for all films reported by BOM? 4000 YES 5. Will Last Jedi drop more that 35% on Saturday? 5000 NO 6. Will Ferdinand open to more than $18M? 1000 YES 7. Will Ferdinand open to more than $26M? 2000 NO 8. Will Ferdinand open to more than $22M? 3000 NO 9. What will be the minimum number of films' weekend grosses that one could combine in order to exceed The Force Awakens' OW gross? 5000 Umm, this weekend, I guess? I'll go with 5. 10. Will Coco drop less than 50%? YES 11. Will Justice League stay above Wonder? 1000 NO 12. Will Thor Ragnarok stay above Daddy's Home? 2000 NO 13. Will any film in last weekend's top 10 drop more than 75%? 3000 NO 14. Will Orient Express' PTA stay above $1,200? 4000 NO 15. Will Lady Bird drop more than 40%? 5000 NO 16. Will any film in the top 12 increase more than 70% on Saturday? 1000 YES 17. Will Last Jedi's two best days combined make more than GOTG2 OW total ($146.5M)? 2000 YES 18. Will any non-opener drop less that 16% on Sunday? 3000 No 19. Will Shape of Water enter the top 10? 4000 YES 20. Will Han Solo return in Last Jedi having bested the Grim Reaper in a game of Battleships? 5000 Absolutely not. That would be so hackneyed. It'll be a wet t-shirt contest. Bonus: 12/20 3000 13/20 5000 14/20 8000 15/20 12000 16/20 16,000 17/20 20,000 18/20 26,000 19/20 32,000 20/20 40,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Last Jedi make for its 3 day OW? 210M 2. What will Daddy's Home's percentage drop be? 53% 3. What will Disaster Artist PTA be? $3,250 Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Coco 5. Justice League 7. Daddy's Home 8. Thor 10. Shape of Water 11. Ladybird

Brazil China Colombia India South Korea

1. Will Just Getting Started Open to more than $7M? 1000 No 2. Will Disaster Artist make more than $6M? 2000 No 3. Will Disaster Artist have a higher total gross than Just Getting Started by the end of the week? 3000 Yes 4. Will Thor cross $300M by the end of the weekend? 4000 Yes 5. Will I Tonya have a PTA above $45,000? 5000 Yes 6. Will Coco drop less than 39%? 1000 Yes 7. Will Lady Bird stay above 3 billboards? 2000 Yes 8. Will Justice League stay above Wonder? 3000 No 9. Will The Star increase more than 150% on Saturday? 4000 No 10. Will Will Daddy's Home make more than Orient Express on all three days of the weekend? 5000 Yes 11. Will Roman Israel have a PTA above $800? 1000 Yes 12. How many of the top 8 will have a PTA above $2000? 2000 7 13. Will Coco have a better Saturday percentage increase than The Star? 3000 Yes 14. Will Daddy's Home cross $90M? 4000 No 15. Will Week 8 ever be able to live up to this weekend? 5000 No. But it will begin to make things right. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Disaster Artist make for its 3 day? 5.8M 2. What will Coco's Fridaygross be? 4.9M 3. What will I Tonya's PTA be for the Weekend? 35k Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Justice League 4. Disaster Artist 6. Ladybird 9. Three billboards 11. Star 12. Bad Moms

week 8 - No

Oh, this one is always fun. 1. What will Justice League's total be at the end of the game? 220M 2. What will Daddy's Home's total be by the end of the game? 95M 3. What will Ferdinand's 3 day OW be? 15M 4. What will Downsizing's Second weekend percentage drop be? -1% 5. What will be the difference in gross between Jumanji and Coco by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? 20M 6. What will Greatest Showman's multiplier be from its Opening Wednesday (So total gross by end of game divided by Wednesday gross)? 6.5x 7. What will Pitch Perfect 3's 12 day total be? 45M 8. How many days will Last Jedi make more than $10M? 15 9. What will Disaster Artist's 4th weekend gross be? 700k 10. What will be the difference between The Post and ITonya's final grosses? 38m

Week 7 - Yes (decent chance I'll revisit this)

1. Will Disaster Artist Open to more than $1M? 1000 NO 2. Will Shape of Water have a PTA above $19,500? 2000 YES 3. Will Coco make more than $25M for the weekend? 3000 YES 4. Will Coco make more than $30M for the weekend? 4000 NO 5. Will Justice league make more than $20M? 5000 NO 6. Will Wonder drop less than 24%? 1000 NO 7. Will any new entry enter the top 10? 2000 NO 8. Will The Bad Mom's stay above Lady Bird? 3000 NO 9. Will Orient Express make more than $8M for the weekend? 4000 NO 10. Will The Star have a higher weekend percentage drop than Thor? 5000 YES 11. Will Call Me by your name have a PTA above $21,000? 1000 YES 12. Will Three Billboards have a PTA above $4,500? 2000 NO 13. Will Daddy's Home have a better Saturday increase than Bad Moms? 3000 NO 14. Will Roman Esq. stay in the top 10? 4000 No 15. Will anything ever get a wide release ever again? 5000 Nope. Not even movies from long, long ago in a galaxy far, far away. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Wonder make for its 3 day OW? 12.85M 2. What will Thor's Sunday gross be? 1.95m 3. What will Disaster Artist's PTA be for the Weekend? 35k Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 1. Coco 3. Wonder 5. Orient Express 7. Star 10. Bad Moms 12. Man who invented Christmas

1. Will Coco Open to more than $55M? 1000 NO 2. Will Coco Open to more than $65M? 2000 NO 3. Will Coco make more than $80M by end of Sunday? 3000 NO 4. Will Coco increase on Saturday? 4000 NO 5. Will Coco increase more than 120% on Friday? 5000 NO 6. Will Justice League drop less than 44%? 1000 NO 7. Will Roman Israel enter the top 6? 2000 NO 8. Will The Star stay above Lady Bird? 3000 YES 9. Will Daddy's Home make more than $10M for the weekend? 4000 YES 10. Will Geostorm have a higher weekend percentage drop than Madea 2? 5000 YES 11. Will Thor have a PTA above $3,600? 1000 YES 12. Will Darkest Hour have a PTA above $22,000? 2000 NO 13. Will Three Billboards' PTA stay about $8,500? 3000 NO 14. Will Orient Express decrease more than 34% on Sunday? 4000 YES 15. Will @Squadron Leader Tele like this more than my Little Pony? 5000 Like what? Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Coco make for its 3 day OW? 50.5m 2. What will Justice League's Sunday gross be? 11.2m 3. What will Lady Bird's PTA be for the Weekend? 5,700 Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 1. Coco 3. Wonder 4. Thor 6. Daddy's Home 8. Lady Bird 11. Three Billboards

Wk6 - Yes

Consider your virtue to have been signaled.

I think JL wasn’t great, but it was fun and in a vacuum could have had a solid OW. But instead of a vacuum it opened in a world where it had to pay MoS and BvS’s karmic box office debt. I think it’ll have decent legs, and it’ll generate enough goodwill that Aquaman, if its good, might actually do well. Then WW2 will crush it again and JL2 will seem doable again. Maybe its the optimist in me talking, but if Marvel is Coca Cola, things work better if it has a Pepsi to compete against. JL was the first movie (WW was so different and kinda doesn’t count, which is part of the problem) that said to me DCEU wants to be Pepsi instead of Mr Pibb.

1. Will Justice League Open to more than $120M? 1000 YES 2. Will Justice League Open to more than $160M? 2000 NO 3. Will Justice League Open to more than $140M? 3000 NO 4. Will Justice League make at least 40% of its gross on Friday? 4000 YES 5. Will Justice League's highest day be more than Double Ragnarok's whole weekend total? 5000 NO 6. Will Star open to more than $12.5M? 1000 NO 7. Will Wonder open to more than $12.5M? 2000 YES 8. Will Star open to more than Wonder? 3000 NO 9. Will Roman J Israel have a PTA above $27,000? 5000 NO 11. Will Daddy's Home stay above Orient Express? 1000 NO 12. Will Bad Mom's drop less than 45%? 2000 YES 13. Will Geostorm stay above Blade Runner? 3000 NO 14. Will Jigsaw's PTA stay above $900? 4000 YES 15. Will Lady Bird Increase? 5000 YES 16. Will Three Billboard's PTA stay above $18,000? 1000 YES 17. Will Tyler Perry drop more than 64%? 2000 YES 18. How many new Openers will be in the top 4? 3000 2 19. Will Happy Death Day increase more than 85% on Friday? 4000 YES 20. HOw many scenes will the CGI screw up and we see Cavil's 'Stache? 5000 I'd have to use scientific notation to answer that. Bonus: 12/20 3000 13/20 5000 14/20 8000 15/20 12000 16/20 16,000 17/20 20,000 18/20 26,000 19/20 32,000 20/20 40,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Justice League make for its 3 day OW? 123.5M 2. What will Orient Express' percentage drop be? 43% 3. What will Jigsaw's Percentage drop be for the 3 day weekend? 56% Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Wonder 5. Daddy's Home 7. Bad Moms 9. Lady Bird 10. Blade Runner 12. Geostorm

Abstain

Nope

Feels low.

1. Will Daddy's Home Open to more than $17.5M? 1000 YES 2. Will Daddy's Home Open to more than $22.5M? 2000 NO 3. Will Orient Express Open to more than $17.5M? 3000 YES 4. Will Orient Express Open to more than $22.5M? 4000 YES 5. Will the two highest new openers combine to more than 42M? 5000 YES 6. Will Thor drop less than 59%? 1000 YES 7. Will Bad Mom's drop less than 54%? 2000 YES 8. Will Blade Runner stay above Thank you for your service? 3000 YES 9. Will Jigsaw made more than $3M for the weekend? 4000 YES 10. Will Geostorm have a higher weekend percentage drop than Only the Brave? 5000 YES 11. Will Three Billboards have a PTA above $22,500? 1000 YES 12. Will The Foreigner have a PTA above $850? 2000 YES 13. Will Madea's PTA stay about $1500? 3000 YES 14. Will Happy Death Day decrease more than 38% on Sunday? 4000 YES 15. Will Mel Gibson out toxic Johnny Depp this Weekend or vice versa? 5000 Yes AND No! Verce Visa! Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Daddy's Home 2 make for its 3 day OW? 19.8M 2. What will Orient Express's Sunday gross be? 6.1M 3. What will three Billboard's PTA be for the Weekend? 37K Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Orient Express 4. Bad Moms 6. Madea 9. Blade Runner 11. Let there be Light 12. Only the Brave