Wrath

Hmm. I was going to say that we now know the results of section E: And the Winner is... except that I forgot about the whole "double the BO of the winner" part. So, we know that Moana's going to be #1. We also know that Arrival, La La Land, and Hidden Figures will be somewhere on the list, but each of them could be anywhere from #2 to #5. And then there's movies like Hacksaw Ridge and Fences which will *probably* make the list at like #6, but could luck out and come in #2 or 3, but could also get screwed and not make the list at all.

Expanding from Tele's inestimable work, I'd be pretty surprised if the final domestic top 15 doesn't look pretty much like: Current Domestic Top 15: 1. Rogue One All of the moneys. All of them. 2. Sing 270m 3. Moana 245m 4. Fantastic Beasts 233m 5. Dr. Strange 232m 6. Lego Batman 180m 7. Trolls 153m 8. Hidden Figures 135m 9. La La Land 120M 10. Split 110M 11. Passengers 100m 12. Arrival 97m 13. Fifty Shades 80m 14. Boo! A Madea Halloween 73m 15. Hacksaw Ridge 66m

I'm pleased to have jumped on that train's bandwagon, but wish I had joined it before the game started instead of (in the interest of continuing mixing metaphors) crossing horses in midstream after they'd been let out of the barn.

In theater: Absolutely Fabulous(4.7m) narrowly beat Hunt for the Wilderpeople (5.2m). Hunt was good, and while Absolutely Fabulous was god-awful it was fun to revisit an old friend I hadnt seen in a long time (the movie, I mean). Though I will say the legacy of the TV show deserved better.

Holy crap! Split could actually get close to $40m? That's astounding. Shylasehjkksghman self-financed it, didn't he? His bank account is going to be really happy. Edit - Also, nice to see McAvoy doing well in something other than X-men.

1. Will Split open to more than $15M? *YES* 2. Will Split open to more than $20M? 3000 *YES* 3. Will Split open to more than $25M? *NO* 4. Will XXX open to more than $15M? *YES* 5. Will XXX open to more than $20M? 2000 *NO* 6. Will XXX open to more than $25M? *NO* 7. Will XXX open higher than Split? *NO* 8. Will The Founder open to more than $5M? *NO* 9. Will The Founder open to more than $7.5M? 2000 *NO* 10. Will Gavin Stone open to more than $2M? *NO* 11. Will the Red Turtle have a PTA above $8,000? *NO* 12. Will the Top 3 all be new entries/expanding films? 3000 *YES* I'd be pretty shocked if it wasn't the top 4. 13. Will Hidden Figures stay above La La Land? *YES* 14. Will Underworld stay above Passengers? *NO* 15. Will Monster Calls make less than $150k? *YES* It might make less than 15k 16. Will any film in the top 20 drop more than 75%? 2000 *YES* 17. Will Bye Bye Man stay above Monster Trucks? *NO* 18. Will Sing cross $250M by the end of the weekend? *NO* 19. Will any film drop more than 36% on Sunday? *YES* 20. Will the XXX trilogy go down as the greatest of all time? 2000 *It was the best trilogy AFTER THE FIRST MOVIE* Bonus: 14/20 2000 15/20 4000 16/20 6000 17/20 9000 18/20 12000 19/20 16000 20/20 20000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000) 1. Predict Split's 3 day gross. 23.5M 2. Predict XXX's Friday gross. 7.85M 3. What will Monster Truck's percentage drop be? -187% yes, really. They'll have to pay people back. (ok, not really. -52%) Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 1. Split 3. Hidden Figures 5. Sing 8. Monster Trucks 11. Passengers 13. Moana

20th Century Women (Wide) - 1.4M Founder - 3.6M Resurrection of Gavin Stone - 2.4M Split - 22.5M xXx - 17.9M

Two things. First, this is only for new openers, that thread is for all weekend predicts. Second, afaik, there's no tracking going on there. In this thread, I'm tracking everyone's predicts as well as our collective predicts and comparing them against the predicts of other websites. Why? Because I feel like it. That does remind me that I need to repost the link to my spreadsheet. Third, ok, there's three things, not two. Third, kinda nothing differentiates the two, because I also track all the predicts made in that thread as part of the data I collect. There are probably people who make predicts in that thread who don't know this even exists, yet are doing extremely well and have multiple "best predicts". Which is fine.

Jan 20: Split Jan 27: Abstain Feb 3: Rings Feb 10: Lego Batman Feb 17: Lego Batman Feb 24: Abstain

Wow. 5 more new openers/newly wide. That's 11 in 2 weeks, all of which, except Split and maybe Founder feel like are being dumped. Its like mid-September, only colder and more depressing (if you live in the northern hemisphere, anyway). 20th Century Women (Wide) Founder Resurrection of Gavin Stone Split xXx As usual, predictions will be due on Thursday afternoon (sorry for the short notice this week) and we will use our median prediction as our overall predict.

Wow. That weekend was just dump-tastic.

My initial impression was actually that Seb was a high functioning autistic. Loved the movie. Didn't think the screenplay was particularly great overall, but I thought the overall package was terrific. Call me a cornball (and to be fair, I had a phase where I watched a bunch of old song and dance movies, not that there are many recent ones in this vein, so maybe I'm just biased), but I almost started clapping after the opening number.

Wow. That explains why they were willing to ditch the elephants a few months ago. On the one hand, this makes me sad. On the other hand, I've got kids and have been to the circus many, many times in my life. I've probably seen Ringling Brothers 6-8 times in my life over the years. Honestly, it doesn't hold up that well as a grown-up. You see the elephants and they look tired and you're aware of people trying to free them, and everything is dirty and looks really worn down, and the tricks are fine but are WAY, WAY worse than what Cirque Du Soleil pulls off. Or Big Apple Circus (which apparently just declared bankruptcy).

What is it that you think you have to teach people such that jandrew is apparently a bad person for not wanting to read all of your posts? I mean that seriously. Do you think you're Mythbustering the significance of a movie's OW multiplier? Because if that's what you're trying to do, you haven't put together a compelling argument yet. Its like you're walking up to a baseball fan and trying to convince them that batting average as a concept is stupid. I mean, what does it matter what the ratio of hits to at-bats is? All that matters is whether the batter gets a hit, and even that only matters if the team manages to score more runs! How stupid those baseball fans are for caring about pointless stats like batting average! And they never seem to want to talk to me about it and learn, either. That's what it feels like you're trying to do.

Did, um, you get hit on the head during the movie?

Im sure it was meant in a good way.

1. Will Monster Trucks make less than $16m? *YES* 2. Will Monster Trucks make less than $12m? 3000 *YES* 3. Will Monster Trucks make less than $8m? *NO* 4. Will Bye Bye Man make more than $6M? *YES* 5. Will Bye Bye Man make more than $8M? 2000 *NO* 6. Will Sleepless make more than $7.5M? *NO* 7. Will Sleepless make more than $10M? *NO* 8. Which New Opener (not expander) will have the highest grossing 3 day weekend? *Monster Trucks* 9. Will Patriots Day open at number 1? 2000 *YES* 10. Will any new opener open in the top 3? *NO* 11. Will Silence make more than $2.2M? *YES* 12. Will Live by night enter the top 2? 3000 *NO* 13. Will Hidden Figures stay above Rogue 1? *YES* 14. Will Sing remain in the top 5? *YES* 15. Will La La Land make more than $8.5M? *YES* 16. Will any film in the top 20 drop less than 15% without increasing by more than 75 theatres? 2000 *NO* 17. Will Some Like It Hot have a PTA above $2,700? *YES* 18. Will Underworld drop more than 57%? *YES* 19. Will Rogue One cross $500M? *YES* 20. Will this weekend bring glory monstering back to the box office? 2000 *Was it really ever gone? Was it?* Bonus: 14/20 2000 15/20 4000 16/20 6000 17/20 9000 18/20 12000 19/20 16000 20/20 20000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000) 1. Predict Monster Truck's 3 day gross. 9.15M 2. Predict Patriot's Day's Percentage increase from last weekend. 16,000% 3. What will Silence's PTA be? 4,000 Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 1. Patriots Day 4. Rogue One 6. Monster Trucks 9. Underworld 12. Moana 15. Fences 3/6 2000 points 4/6 5000 points 5/6 8000 points 6/6 13000 points

Bye-Bye Man Mean: 6.9M Median: 7M StnDev: 1.93M (revised StnDev: 1.61M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 27.61% High: 10M Low: 4.5M BO.com 7.5M Deadline 8M MovieWeb 8.5M Variety 8M Live by Night Mean: 11.7M Median: 10.8M StnDev: 5.6M (revised StnDev: 4.71M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 51.82% High: 23M Low: 7M BO.com 7M Deadline 8.5M MovieWeb 9.5M Variety 8M Monster Trucks Mean: 10.2M Median: 9.5M StnDev: 3.27M (revised StnDev: 3.89M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 34.45% High: 16M Low: 6M BO.com 8M Deadline 10M MovieWeb 19M Variety 7M Patriots' Day Mean: 22.1M Median: 20.5M StnDev: 3.86M (revised StnDev: 4.24M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 18.85% High: 30M Low: 18.5M BO.com 17M Deadline 17M MovieWeb 17M Variety 14.5M Silence Mean: 3.2M Median: 3.15M StnDev: 0.85M (revised StnDev: 1.55M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 26.99% High: 4.4M Low: 2.2M BO.com 2.5M Deadline 4M MovieWeb Variety Sleepless Mean: 6.7M Median: 6.6M StnDev: 2.64M (revised StnDev: 2.48M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 39.93% High: 10M Low: 3.1M BO.com 6M Deadline 6M MovieWeb 11M Variety 6.5M

Bye-Bye Man - 5.9M Live by Night (wide) - 10.8M Monster Trucks - 8.9M Patriots' Day (wide) - 18.5M Silence (wide) - 4.4M Sleepless - 5.6M

I award you a C- because at least you showed up.

Ah, nuts. I missed that the time frame drops to 12 hours if it gets over 300%.

That's fair, though Stork's occasional ridiculousness was, imo, one of its selling points. Like how the customer-service was so good that returned packages were effectively teleported back to the warehouse. And the wolf-pack's extremely impressive improvisational abilities (which they lampshade the hell out of. Junior and Tulip are like "Huh. They can do that?") were, imo, one of the very best parts of the movie. It was a fantastic year for animation, arguably the best ever. I mean, Moana was a really, really good animated movie and to me it was only the 4th best of the year. Ferocious competition. I didn't particularly like SLOP, but had basically the same opinion as you. First 20 minutes was great, but it dragged after that and I thought the ending was pretty blah. And honestly, I didn't think Dory even had that going for it. If its an option, I'd skip it and instead go see Trolls which was brilliant, or Sing (which, even more than SLOP, defined the difference between "good" and "crowd pleasing") which was fun.

1. 180 2. 3 (BW2) 3. 55M

Well. That is one heck of a lot of new openers and films going wide. Plus, it almost feels like Monster Trucks should count as two movies thanks to all the ridiculous history it has going for it. Worth noting is that Silence is apparently going wide but only to 750 theaters so temper your predictions accordingly. Please provide your 1/13-15 Three-Day Opening Weekend predicts for, Bye-Bye Man Live by Night (wide) Monster Trucks Patriots' Day (wide) Silence (wide) Sleepless Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

Hidden Figures Prediction: 21.3M +/- 3.93M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 22.8M (off by 1.5M, so 0.38 stndev) Possibly our best weekend ever for predictions. When the *worst* predict is off by 0.38 stndev, which is a very solid result in its own right, you know you've done something right. As an added bonus, we were the closest predict (BO.com was #2 at 21M). Best predict was 22.5M by TwoMisfits in their first predict ever. Nice job! abc Monster Calls Prediction: 2.1M +/- 1.47M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 2.08M (off by 0.02M, so 0.01 stndev) Pff. Freaking terrible. Off by almost 1% of a stndev? Not even a perfect bullseye! Kidding, obviously. This was one of our 3-4 best predicts ever. Since our predicts tend to only get down to the 100k level of granularity, movies going wide with really small expected grosses are a double edged sword. On the one hand, there's a much higher than normal chance of getting a bullseye (or close) with a movie expected to make, say $2M, because there are only so many places our predicts are likely to land (1.9, 2.0, 2.1, 2.2, etc). Compare that to, say, an 20M OW movie where there are a lot more potential guesses (20.1, 22.3, 17.5, etc). Its at least an order of magnitude more difficult. On the other hand, the risk of getting a catastropically bad predict is also high. If we predict 2.3M and it comes in at 4M, we've completely failed. Its a high risk, high reward situation and in this case we did great. Best predict was a tie between Alli and WrathofHan, both predicting 2M. The only other two websites to predict came in at 9M and 16.8M, so us being closest was a pretty safe bet from the get-go. abc Underworld Prediction: 13.5M +/- 0.2M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 13.689M (off by 0.2M, so 0.05 stndev) Possibly an even better predict than Monster Calls. Not quite as precisely close, but as I mentioned under Monster Calls, the opening doesn't have to go up that much to make a precise prediction vastly more difficult. Not quite as close as Monster Calls, but given how much harder this was, I think it was an even better result. BO.com also predicted 13.5M, so we tied with them for first place, though everyone else did pretty solidly as well. Best predict was by me (yea!) at 13.5M, with filmlover an extremely close second at 14M. abc