Wrath

Conjuring 2 32.5 Now You See Me 2 25 Warcraft 24.5

For me it was intentional. Thought I'd be busy tonight and miss the chance so may as well get what I could. Sadly I have mobile service after all. Oh well.

I have a feeling that when I look back on this season, it'll be a fine reminder. When it comes to your top 15, first put in a hard-nosed cynical and pessimistic set of numbers. Then draw up the numbers your gut is telling you are right, the optimistic guesses, the longshots you just know are going to break out. Hold that list in your hand, and as you get ready to type it in, pour gasoline on yourself and light it on fire. You get the same sensation as actually typing the numbers in and seeing the results, but its over faster. And you'll end up with a better score to console you during the skin grafts.

Oh, Im totally confident. That it has at least a 1 in 10 chance of pulling that off.

Ha ha! Those losers! (Quickly checking list, desperately hoping Im not one of them)

Not to be the bearer of bad tidings, but you do know that the source of that giant shark catching picture, and accompanying story, might not be the gold-standard for journalistic accuracy, right? Some of their other current headlines: "Jesus was an alcoholic" and "Yoko Ono had affair with Hillary Clinton in the 1970s".

Oops, you're right.

Me Before You Prediction: 16.4M +/- 4.41M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 18.7M (off by 2.3M, so 0.52 stndev) Not bad, and the second best predict. BO.com nailed it, we were pretty close, and everyone else missed by a bunch. Not bad at all. Johnboy3434 had the best predict at 18.1M. abc Popstar Prediction: 5.8M +/- 2.34M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 4.7M (off by 1.1M, so 0.47 stndev) Another solid predict, though this time we were roughly in the middle of the pack. I was our best predict at 4.5M. TMNT 2 Prediction: 44M +/- 8.9M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 35.3M (off by 8.7M, so 0.98 stndev) Not good but not terrible, and not bad at all for the worst predict of the week though we were the worst predict, other than MovieWeb's fever-induced 61.3M. CoolEric258 was closest at 34.6M

Summer of many disappointing sequels? Will that keep up this weekend? We'll see. Please provide your 6/10-12 Opening Weekend predicts for, Conjuring 2 Now You See Me 2 Warcraft Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

I think you misspelled "incredibly amazing".

Warcraft marketing is starting to show up all over the place. At grocery store last night, there was an entire section of Warcraft-themed Mike 'n Ikes. See it was all just Reds and Blues, with the Blues being Alliance themed Mike n Ikes and the Reds were Horde themed Red Hots. Yes, I bought them. I love Mike n Ikes.

He didn't star in them. Who did he voice? The human?

Best scene of the movie. There were other scenes that were good (the whole bit with Fassbender in the beginning was also good, imo), but that was the one part that was genuinely creative and fun. Which is funny, because the trailers did an awful job of capturing it.

Good question. I'm actually not sure it'll break $2M. Its going from ~500 theaters to 800, but its per/theater total is probably going to drop. Ok, yeah, I think its a good bet to be over $2M, but I suspect that'll be barely over. Maybe $2.2M or so. That having been said, I finally saw a commercial for it, so maybe its getting marketing somewhere.

2) Will TMNT open to more than $47.5M? *NO* 3) Will TMNT open to more than $55M? *NO* 6) Will Popstar open to more than $7M? *NO* 7) Will Popstar open to more than $10? *NO* 8) Will Apocalypse have a weekend total above $30M? *NO* 16) Will The Darkness Drop less than 65% this weekend? *NO* 20) Will any film ever make the box office we hope it will ever again? *Sure. Wait, what?*

Eh. People fret over that, but honestly the impact of even missing by a ton isn't that big a deal. Maybe -15k points, total? If you didn't nail it, the incremental points of missing by even more tend to be relatively small potatoes unless its a TFA-scale miss where you're off by like 300m or something ludicrious.

Part 1 ~ answer yes/no unless otherwise stated (UOS) and are worth 1000 points each UOS. They also only refer to the top 12 UOS. 1) Will TMNT open to more than $40M? *NO* 2) Will TMNT open to more than $47.5M? 2000 *NO* 3) Will TMNT open to more than $55M? *NO* 4) Will Me Before You open to more than $15M? *YES* 5) Will Me Before You open to more than $20M? *NO* 6) Will Popstar open to more than $7M? *NO* 7) Will Popstar open to more than $10? 3000 *NO* 8) Will Apocalypse have a weekend total above $30M? *NO* 9) Will Alice cross $50M by the end of the weekend? 2000 *YES* 10) Will Angry Birds have a higher percentage drop than Zootopia? *YES* 11) Will Neighbours stay above Jungle Book? *NO* 12) Will The NIce Guys Increase more than 110% on Friday? *YES* 13) Will Love and Friendship have a weekend total above $2M? 3000 *YES* 14) Will Approaching the Unknown have a PTA above $3,500? *NO* 15) Will Mother's Day stay above the Boss? 2000 *NO* 16) Will The Darkness Drop less than 65% this weekend? *NO* 17) Will Zootopis pass $1B Worldwide by the end of the weekend? *NO* 18) Will The Huntsman have a Sunday drop above 31%? *YES* 19) Will Me Before you have a higher PTA within $1,000 of TMNT? 3000 *YES* 20) Will any film ever make the box office we hope it will ever again? *Sure. Wait, what?* Bonuses 15/20 - 2000 16/20 - 4000 17/20 - 6000 18/20 - 9000 19/20 - 12000 20/20 - 15000 Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS 1. What will TMNT's Saturday Gross Be? $15M 2. What will Popstar's Sunday percentage drop be? 40% 3. What will Jungle Book's Total Domestic Gross be by the end of the weekend? 343.5M Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given. (2000 per film) 2. X-Men 6. Civil War 9. Neighbors 2 12. Love and Friendship 14. Lobster 16. Man who Knew Infinity Bonuses: 3/6 ~ 2000 points 4/6 ~ 5000 points 5/6 ~ 9000 points 6/6 ~ 15000 points

Heh, I went low on almost everything, and I'm still getting totally spanked.

I'm feeling less optimistic about my chances by the week.

Alice Through the Looking Glass Prediction: 65M +/- 7.27M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 33.5M (off by 31.5M, so 4.34 stndev) Just terrible. And while everyone did badly, we were the worst of the lot. mrqe93 was the best predict at 48M. abcabc X-Men: Apocalypse Prediction: 88M +/- 8.2M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 79.8M (off by 8.2M, so 0.75 stndev) Not a bad predict, but everyone else nailed it (except Deadline's "Oh, I dunno. Somewhere in this $30M range.") while we were merely in the ballpark. Best predict was CJohn at 80.5M. Going forward, we are using our median predict as our formal number. Obviously I'll keep tracking both, but over almost a year of data our median has been consistently more accurate than our mean and, all things being equal, we'd rather make good predicts than bad ones.

Full slate of actual predicts this week, though MovieWeb.com continued its tradition of periodically putting in predictions that are batshit insane. To be fair, they've occasionally been prescient with these, but usually they're not. This week they have two, predicting 10.2M for Popstar and 61.3M for TMNT 2. Who knows? Maybe this week they'll be right. Our predicts are slightly high on Me Before You, about in the middle on Popstar, and quite optimistic on TMNT 2. Also, as a reminder, our prediction numbers are now the median result, rather than the mean result, of everyone's picks and revised StnDev is the standard deviation of the predictions, including the other web-sites. As usual, I totaled all predicts (17 for Me Before You and TMNT 2, 16 for Popstar) and here are the results: Me Before You Mean: 16.3M Median: 16.4M StnDev: 4.41M (revised StnDev: 3.99M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 26.91% High: 23.5M Low: 8M BO.com 18.5M Deadline 13M MovieWeb 15.1M ShowBuzzDaily 15.5M Variety 14M Popstar: Never stop never stopping Mean: 6.3M Median: 5.8M StnDev: 2.34M (revised StnDev: 2.27) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 40.29% High: 11M Low: 3.5M BO.com 5.5M Deadline 4M MovieWeb 10.2M ShowBuzzDaily 6M Variety 6M Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 Mean: 44.7M Median: 44M StnDev: 8.9M (revised StnDev: 9.93) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 20.23% High: 67.1M Low: 32M BO.com 27M Deadline 33M MovieWeb 61.3M ShowBuzzDaily 37.5M Variety 37M

Me Before You 15M Popstar 4.5M TMNT 2 38.5M

I'll take the last 65% of Me Before You.

Looks like I'm going to regret that X-Men investment. When the cost dropped to $180M I figured it was worth a shot, but its underwhelming.

Oops, nm.