Wrath

Part 1 ~ answer yes/no unless otherwise stated (UOS) and are worth 1000 points each UOS. They also only refer to the top 12 UOS. 1) Will Civil War make more than $77m? *YES* 2) Will Civil War make more than $89m? 2000 *NO* 3) Will Money Monster open above $10m? 3000 *NO* 4) Will The darkness open above $6m? *NO* 5) Will Money Monster and The Darkness' combined opening weekends be higher than The Jungle Book's Weekend total? *NO* 6) Will Mother's Day remain in the top 5? *YES* 7) Will High Rise have a PTA above $15,000? *NO* 8) Will The Huntsman stay above Zootopia this weekend? 2000 *NO* 9) Will Ratchett and Clank increase more than 85% on Saturday? 3000 *YES* 10) Will Mother's Day have the biggest drop of any film in the top 8? *YES* 11) Will BvS's PTA stay above $400? *YES* 12) Will Sing Street increase this weekend? 2000 *YES* 13) Will Hologram for the king stay above The Meddler this weekend? 3000 *NO* 14) Will The Boss make $1m this weekend? *NO* 15) Will more people watch George Clooney in Nespresso commercials than in the cinema this weekend? *Yes, and by a lot* Bonuses 11/15 - 2000 12/15 - 4000 13/15 - 6000 14/15 - 9000 15/15 - 12000 Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS 1. What will be the difference between BvS and Civil War's total gross this weekend? 80.5M 2. What will Mother's Day's weekend drop be? 59.1% 3. What will Keanu make on Sunday? 525k Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given. (2000 per film) 4. Mother's Day 7. Huntsman 9. Barbershop 12. BvS 14. Sing Street 17. Green Room

Agreed. Nairnadis apparently crunched the numbers and worked out that this year is actually less wide-open in terms of potential top 15 picks than prior years, but it really doesn't feel that way to me.

I'd think this would be the kind of thing you'd be on top of.

So, you're not going to make a list, but instead you're going to predict a list?

Oh, thank god. Order has been maintained *somewhere* in the universe.

I'm guessing that right now, you suspect alcohol feels the same way about you (or at least your brain and liver).

Oh, thanks. Yeah, its very much still a work in progress. I took a list from the last page, deleted the movies I wasn't sure at first glance I'd include (or hadn't seen. Every time I do this I'm reminded of how many really great movies I've still never seen), included a handful that happened to be top of mind and I knew I wanted to include, and I'm about half-way into at least getting the movies on the list so far into the right general neighborhoods. Tonight or tomorrow sometime I'll finish that, finish populating the list, and then do a final pass to give out the final spots to everything. Which isn't to say Fury Road won't still be on the list twice when its done. Just that then it will be a result of ineptitude, rather than now when its because of being busy with other stuff.

Sure, I'm optimistic as well. But its easy to forget now that the first couple in 2002 and 2004 were both actually pretty good. Things went down sharply after that.

ITS UPSIDE DOWN! The low #s are at the top and the big numbers are at the bottom! *head explodes*

There. Done. I suppose I might still go back and tweak things, but I'm basically happy with them. I didn't really put much effort into sorting within the categories. I don't actually think Best in Show is better than To Kill a Mockingbird, but they're both in the same point range so I figured it didn't matter where they fell relative to each other. The movie I'd most like to move up, but can't, is Terminator. If you put a gun to my head, I'd admit that my #96-100 movies (except, possibly, Die Hard) have no place on this list, but I love them, they're good movies (each in their own way) and they're well done. Other than those 5, the movie I'm most tempted to move off the list is The Avengers in part because I think Civil War was simply better. I'm a little concerned I haven't spent enough time thinking about this, because I don't have really have a group of movies I'm dying to add and can't find spots for. I assume like a half-dozen movies will pop into mind the instant this becomes final and I'll regret my choices then. On the other hand, there are a lot of good movies I still haven't seen. I need to get around to that. 1. Usual Suspects 2. The Shawshank Redemption 3. The Empire Strikes Back 4. 12 Angry Men 5. The Wizard of Oz 6. Blade Runner 7. Citizen Kane 8. The Godfather 9. Rope 10. Raiders of the Lost Arc 11. Pulp Fiction 12. Finding Nemo 13. Dr. Strangelove 14. Saving Private Ryan 15. Toy Story 2 16. Seven Samurai 17. The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring 18. The Sting 19. American Beauty 20. Blazing Saddles 21. Fargo 22. Mary Poppins 23. Platoon 24. Schindler’s List 25. Trainspotting 26. Rocky 27. Duck Soup 28. Jaws 29. The Princess Bride 30. Monty Python’s The Holy Grail 31. Lawrence of Arabia 32. When Harry Met Sally 33. Airplane! 34. Fight Club 35. Tootsie 36. Vertigo 37. Boyhood 38. Matrix 39. Taxi Driver 40. Amelie 41. Goodfellas 42. Big Fish 43. Silence of the Lambs 44. Aladdin 45. The Sound of Music 46. One Flew Over a Cuckoo’s Nest 47. Singing in the Rain 48. Se7en 49. Casablanca 50. Star Wars: A New Hope 51. Psycho 52. Best in Show 53. Rear Window 54. The Lion King 55. Raging Bull 56. Memento 57. Annie Hall 58. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King 59. Chinatown 60. The Godfather Part 2 61. Stand by Me 62. Resevoir Dogs 63. North by Northwest 64. Almost Famous 65. Unforgiven 66. The Terminator 67. The Great Escape 68. Alien 69. Mad Max: Fury Road 70. Jurassic Park 71. Captain America: Civil War 72. A Clockwork Orange 73. Ghostbusters 74. Lost in Translation 75. Up 76. Breakfast Club 77. To Kill a Mockingbird 78. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly 79. The Bridge on the River Kwai 80. Groundhog Day 81. Toy Story 82. Grand Budapest Hotel 83. Young Frankenstein 84. Whiplash 85. Gone With the Wind 86. Lawrence of Arabia 87. Ben-Hur 88. Cool Hand Luke 89. The Dark Knight 90. Forrest Gump 91. Planet of the Apes 92. Harold and Maude 93. Waiting for Guffman 94. Good Will Hunting 95. Animal House 96. Ferris Bueller's Day Off 97. Mean Girls 98. Die Hard 99. Big Trouble in Little China 100. Pirates of the Caribbean and the Curse of the Black Pearl

None of you seem to understand. I'm not locked in here with CJohn. CJohn's locked in here with me.

What the hell? Edit - Ok, now it looks normal. That was weird. The post above didn't look... normal, lets say, for a bit. Seems ok now.

Civil War Prediction: 204.8M +/- 11.51M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 179.1M (off by 25.7M, so 2.24 stndev) Ow. Just goes to show, just because everyone agrees OW will be just over $200M doesn't mean it actually will end up there. Variety nailed it, while we were slightly better than middle of the pack. Ruthie, in her(?) first ever prediction was the closest at 180M. Congrats! Also, after giving it quite a bit of thought (and consulting with a buddy who's a professor of statistics), I've hit upon a way to track how accurate everyone's been at predicting. I'm going to re-do Standard Deviations for each movie including the other sites' predictions (it'll take 5 minutes) and then track how many standard deviations everyone is off by on each prediction, including our overall projections as well as Variety, BO.com, etc. I'll then take an average (so, total stndev error divided by number of predictions) and I'll group people into categories by how many predictions they've made. As an example, Ruthie would be pretty tough to top right now, but that isn't fair to a WrathofHan who's made 121 predictions and has had the occasional non-bullseye. Probably something like "10 or less", "11-25", "26-50", and so forth. We'll see how it looks. Hopefully I'll get to it in the next few days, because I'm going to be really busy starting on Thursday.

Sigh. I'm really wishing I'd bailed on Week 0 and edited my pre-season predictions one last time. Oh well. Edit - Money Monster - Lower Popstar - Lower

And we're off! With a bit of a stumble perhaps, which might make it excellent preparation for this weekend. Please provide your 5/13-15 Opening Weekend predicts for, Darkness Money Monster Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it.

That'd be GGRRREEEAAAAATTTT!

The problem is that you're just stringing negative words together to make an assertion without really giving a reason why. Sure, maybe people are tired of it. They didn't seem to be tired of it yesterday, and the critics liked it, but maybe this particular day marks the beginning of the decline of the MCU. Sure, could be. The problem is that you don't really defend any of these points. There aren't any trends backing up what you're saying, and the numbers so far don't support it at all. You appear to be picking your arguments out of the air which doesn't give them much weight. It doesn't mean that you're wrong, but it does mean that your words aren't compelling. You need to beef up the "why now?" part of your argument or pull in some numbers if you want people to take you seriously.

Pretty consistent. From my stuff I got an average of 204.8M.

Huh. Well, you crunched the numbers so if there's less deviation than normal, I believe you. Doesn't feel that way to me, but it looks like my entries might be a bit of an outlier making the range seem bigger to me.

Been in a fair number of sold-out movies recently. First 2 times I saw TFA it was sold out (on consecutive weekends), Inside Out was sold out, and so was GotG. CW was not sold out, but it was quite full, perhaps 90%. The showing after us was sold out, though. Trailers were: X-Men (well received) Magnificent Seven (well received) Warcraft (surprisingly well received) Tarzan (well received) Star Trek (best reception of any movie. I think its that Beastie Boys song, honestly) Independence Day 2 (decent) Alice 2 (lukewarm response) Dr Strange (decent. Might have been better, but when it started, people were murmuring "ANOTHER trailer? wtf?")

You know, that's what I thought too at first. Were the Millers did great. And Hart and Rock are both very high profile. But, setting aside the Furious movies, the Rock's biggest BO movie was last summer's San Andreas, and #2 after that was Get Smart. Hart's best movie was, of course, Ride Along, but #2 after that was Scary Movie 3 back in 2003. Their movies don't do badly, mostly, but they actually aren't huge. Other than the Furious movies, last summer's TMNT is bigger than anything either of them have been in, and by a pretty large margin. Edit - As a final note, I strongly disagree with whoever it was that said this was a fairly narrow summer in terms of movies. In fact, I think its unusually wide open. People have movies in their top 5 that I don't have in my top 15 and there are probably 15-18 movies that can be reasonably argued to being top 10 movies.

Seriously considered making some edits to my lists after watching the reactions to the pre-CW trailers (Star Trek and, surprisingly, Warcraft, were particularly big, ID2 was fairly well received, and people seemed unimpressed with Alice), plus, Regal is now incorporating Angry Birds into their pre-movie membership video), but who's to say I'd make the correct changes? And I figure I'm due for 25-30k points which would require a couple correct guesses. I prefer certainty to rolling the dice, so I'll stay put.

Ah, pity these didn't come in earlier, would have pushed us over the prior record. Still, always better to have more predicts than less.

Wow. 46 predicts, which was the second most for any movie, trailing only Minions (47), which was the very first movie we've done this way. Also, the 5.62% ratio (for anyone new, that's the ratio of the standard deviation of our predicts divided by our mean predict. In a nutshell, its a measure of how confident we are in our pick. The lower the ratio, the more tightly clustered our picks our, and thus the more confident, collectively, we are in our predictions. Ratio tends to drop as OW BO goes up, up to about 140M at which point it kinda spazzes out because there's so little data that high up) is our lowest ratio ever. Amusingly, it comes one week after Ratchet and Clank which was our highest ever ratio. Our predict is right about in the middle of other site's predicts, with BO.com highest at 214M, and Variety lowest at 178M. So, as usual, I totaled all predicts (46, of course) and here are the results: Civil War Mean: 204.8M Median: 204.5M StnDev: 11.51M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 5.62% High: 229M Low: 180M BO.com 214M Deadline 195M MovieWeb 210.5M ShowBuzzDaily 206.5M Variety 178M

Hmm. Didn't realize my list was so off-beat compared to most other folks. Usually I put a little more effort to be closer to the pack. Hope I'm right! Edit - BFG, Tarzan, and Neighbors 2 are the ones replacing Angry Birds, Ghostbusters, and Central Intelligence. I guess you've never very sure of your 13-15 spots, but I'm certainly not confident of those.