TigerPaw

General Audience WOM is not bad... slightly above average I would say. But the issue is, Maoyan's rating. 7.9 on Maoyan. That is atrocious. Even bad movies like Railroad Tigers and Great Wall gets at least 8.3/10. Maoyan is a very popular (if not the most popular) online ticketing website. So people will look at the score before buying tickets, so that does not bold well for R1's hold... + Passengers next week; even though the pre-sales are not looking good but showtimes for R1 will be cut by around 50%. PS; I heard whispers from some insiders that Great Wall/Railroad Tigers and esp Some Like It Hot fans.. are purposely rating R1 as 1/10 pulling the average down. They want GA to watch the movies with their idols instead. Despicable.

I will be happy if it does anything above 65m yuan (I am comparing it to Star Trek haha,hoping t beats Star Trek). But 65m yuan is.. almost impossible. =/

Thanks a million! It really helps! It is 2.30pm now on a Sunday, 27m yuan for R1 now, so i will expect 54m yuan for today.. Disappointing again. Anything above this will be a bonus. =(

If WOM is going to be like in other countries... then walk-ins will be weak.

Market is weak now. 100m yuan total BO or opening weekend?

Its going to be a close race for top position. Hope R1 steals it.

Gavin, you are too kind to only point out the 外传 part. =) Disney screwed up the chinese translation, and we know that. =) 星球=Star 大战=Wars 外传=Extra Story/Outside Story - which simply means not important/not main episodes - "Let's just skip this" - for any audience that knows Chinese 侠盗= There is no direct chinese translation for Rogue. Xia Dao here is the exact translation of Grand Theft Auto's chinese title(侠盗猎车手). So Xia Dao = Heroic Theft/Hero/Grand Theft 一号=One or Number 1 or First or Call Sign One... So adding together. It means either Star Wars Extra Story: Grand Theft Number 1 or Star Wars Outside Story: Hero Call Sign 1. And honestly, I have seen so many hollywood movies translation.. And I am not even exaggerating when I say, this is one of the worst chinese translaton of a Hollywood movie. =( So when Donnie Yen/Jiang Wen fans say.. Why is my favourite star cast in a freaking outside story instead of main episode. Or a GA saying, why are Chinese Actors not in the main episodes?! Well, we know their frustations.

I don't blame him actually, I mean some general audiences and fans are pissed off that Donnie Yen is cast in a Spin-off （外传）instead of a main episode。 And as you know, in Mandarin, Wai Zhuan sounds bad, like a completly different story, a "outside" story.

Go watch Rogue One, go support him. Just 1 ticket, really. Support him, if you want him in more Hollywood movies. =) It is a spin-off, so you don't need to watch the entire series to understand. =) If need be, just watch the first 30minutes of Episode 4 - A New Hope. Anyway for xXx, *SPOILER ALERT*

Truth to be told. Disney China made Rogue One Flop. So after my long long post yesterday, I received some confidential information from sources close to the production and marketing of R1 in China. But I can't disclose any more details. But here is what is happening; Disney put in a lot of effort for TFA which performed reasonably well in China, 125m USD is actually VERY GOOD. The marketing was on point... Posters and Trailers showing at busy streets; Force Awakens - 4 chinese words on the Great Wall with 500 stormtroopers. The opening weekend of TFA was incredible, but as you know by now, WOM in China is bad and it barely double of this opening weekend. So coming back to R1. Compared to TFA, the marketing for R1 was really disappointing. I don't know the reason behind it, but take a drive around Shanghai or Beijing, you barely see any big R1 posters around. There are some standees in cinemas, that's it. Yes, there were daily posts on Weibo by the official star wars account(which don't really have many followers), and a theme song with piano played by Donnie Yen and sang by Jam Hsiao(who is a taiwan singer, not that huge in China). And the Beijing Premiere, I heard it was a big fail. Too early, 3 weeks(Dec 21) before the opening at a location with quiet traffic, and attendance were poor, no gimmicks or local big stars invited to attend other than the casts themselves. Once again, I don't know the reason. Maybe they felt 1) TFA made everyone a fan of Star Wars so they can slacken a little? Or 2) They think with Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen in the cast, they can save on marketing? 3) Or Rogue One is not a main episode, it is an "Experiment" so less effort? 3) 2015 - TFA was fighting with 2 Universal Films (Jurassic World & FF7) for no1 global movie, but 2016 Civil War is number 1, with huge earnings in China(Zootopia also did a more than perfect job in China).. So they already got the crown, therefore they don't really care for R1's overseas gross? I mean I applaud Disney Headquarters in N.America which did an exceptional job for R1 there, but I can't say the same for Disney Asia. So going back to your question. It depends on numerous factors. 1) R1's WOM is better than TFA in China, so can it gain some fans for Ep8? 2) How much effort/marketing budget is Disney going to put for this? Or is it giving up on China? 3) Will Carrie Fisher's death cause China movie-goers to support the movie? I mean many of them treat Paul Walker as their own after he is deceased, FF7 exploded at China's box office despite Paul Walker not being a big name there..but once he is deceased, all Chinese love him and watch the whole F&F series... Will this effect be the same for Carrie Fisher? So.. there are too many uncertanties for me to give you a concrete answer. But R1 is becoming a big disappointment right now in China, I really can't see episode 8 doing worse. BTW, one of the earlier pages, I talked about the weak translated title for R1 in China... That probably will not happen with a main episode.

If you don't even want to support him or watch it on the big screen.... and if many fans feel the same. Wait for it to come online, then how will the box office do well? Trust me, he has some lines that you can only enjoy fully on the big screen! And you must see the audience reaction when he say those lines, he has arguably the Best Single Line in the entire movie, with the best audience reaction! PS: Anyway I hope it won't affect his future Hollywood movies... Disney should be smart enough to know that R1 failed because of TFA and almost 0 effort in marketing in China in comparison to TFA (I have internal credible sources to say that, but i can't say it out). It is not Donnie's fault, but I don't know if other studios will know that.... Hope xXx changes that, earns a big deal in China and people know how consistent of a draw he is. =)

Watched it, the movie is really bad. Just a popcorn entertainment without any sense.

Rogue One's saturday increase in China.. is Pathetic... Really Pathetic. Estimates are in at 82m yuan, Friday OD was 67m yuan(without midnights). That is a 22% increase only. Compared to Dr. Strange and Fantastic Beast which 50%-ish increases from their Friday(which is already larger). Both Dr. Strange and Fantastic Beast had more than a 100m yuan Saturday.. R1 will be lucky to hit 60m USD or to beat Star Trek Beyond in China. Its WOM is average to negative.. Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen made a good multipler for OD but couldn't save R1 because of that slow 1st hour. Its maoyan score is 7.9/10 compared to Great Wall and Railroad Tigers which are above 8. And trust me when i say, Great Wall and Railroad Tigers are really 2 crap movies with 0 logic.

crossed 80m yuan (if estimates hold up)... Disappointing, hope tomorrow(Sunday） it maintains or just drops a little. Or else I doubt it can even match Star Trek Beyond =（

Have you watched it? If not... Why? Go watch this for him! Don't worry about his role, he did very well. =) Really really well, I am not kidding. Just go 1 round through twitter, search "Donnie Yen", see how many people are tweeting about him as their favourite character. He trended on US/UK twitter and facebook for a few days when R1 just premiered! At least 3 articles from reputable websites/news eg: The Guardian also rank him as the best character. =) And if you are worried about Box Office in China, DON'T BE! Because Donnie is already well known there, and in most parts of Asia. R1 is doing well in Europe and North America, these are the places where people are seeing Donnie Yen first time on big screen, so box office there is more important for him if you want him to gain world-wide recognition. =)

Where do you usually get your source？ Tracking Maoyan every 30minutes to see that average of 3m grow is painful. =(

I usually use Maoyan. @Olive is the expert on this. But... gosh. Not even 80m today. Its really.. a flop. A big flop.

Let's discuss the Elephant in the room. Can R1 earm 100m Yuan single day - today? Maoyan reviews dropped to 7.9.. a very bad sign. And now at 2.10pm, it is only at almost 30m yuan. Not very strong.... and with this Medicore WOM, I think it will gross only 85m yuan today. (I hope I am wrong, and it explodes tonight!)

Yup, very bad... Those crap movies (really bad ones) like Great Wall and Railroad Tigers are above 8... Something is wrong....

Only if suddenly.. Chinese Audiences embrace the recently deceased Carrie Fisher as their own. (Just like how they suddenly felt that Paul Walker was their own during FF7, even though Paul Walker films have never done well there previously) @ttr - this relates to u as well.

No way, it will not go near TFA. 60m - 70m USD is the optimstic total for R1. There are many reasons why TFA out-performed last year. Despite the Franchise not being established in China. Including and not limited to... 1) TFA had 3 weekends of almost..0 strong competition(and Chinese New Year was later in 2016, Chinese new year kills all movies other than Chinese New Year Releases - 10 films coming out in 1 day to fight for showtimes, lol). | Passengers will most likely beat R1 next week. 2) A huge opening weekend because Disney spent a crazy lots of money having 500 stormtroopers on the Great Wall, and have the 4 chinese words representing Force Awakens | R1's marketing and hype is pathetic compared to TFA 3) Better red carpet date | (R1's red carpet was almost 3 weeks before its release, hype has died down abit). 4) Penned-up demand and hype, causing even casual movie-goers to watch. | curiousity factor gone, chinese audience thinks Star Wars is a snooze fest. But like the article mentioned above http://chinafilminsider.com/screen-china-force-not-strong-rogue-one/, TFA's bad WOM killed R1. It is literally dead-on-arrival. DY & JW can help Disney save some face, but it will not do well.. at all, the blame really goes to TFA. By the way, if R1 opened last year, instead of TFA(assuming TFA doesn't exist), R1 will easily cross 1billion yuan which is around 155m USD (last year's exchange rate). But now... it will not even earn half of that.

Posted this on the International Thread for R1, but will post here too in case people wants to read. Some of you might disagree with me.. Wanted to take this chance to post about Rogue One's first day performance at the Chinese Box Office. Which was not incredible, but definitely did much better than expectations (our expectations were lowered due to Pre-sales). I understand that not a lot of you here are familiar with the Chinese Box Office, as most will only check the threads there or read up on pre-sales comparison when a film you like is going to show and hopes the international total accelerates because China is a big market. I don't claim to be an expert, but I have been tracking the Chinese Box Office on-and-off for a few years now. So last night at 10.00pm (GMT+8), the presales of Rogue One was 15.5 - 16m yuan (depends on which Chinese tracking site you use). A lot of us were looking at the numbers daily, since pre-sales started, but the pre-sales never picked up... Base on most posters at the Chinese forum, you guys will know that OD for a Hollywood movie is usually 2.75 - 3.25. Which means 44m - 52m Yuan OD is to be expected. So even the most optimistic of us were looking at 60m Yuan OD. And this big drop from TFA is to be expected, as TFA was so badly received in China... Lightsaber fight scenes were nothing compared what chinese viewers are used to seeing, how Wushu Champs like Jet Li and Donnie Yen handles weapon on screen. (For full details on how TFA is impacting R1 negatively in China, read this: http://chinafilminsider.com/screen-china-force-not-strong-rogue-one/) So this Opening Numbers was supposed to mean a Big Disappointment, considered a big flop in China. But right now, estimates have come in, thanks to @Olive, we are looking at a 67m Yuan OD (around 9.6m USD), better than all of us has expected, a >4x multipler from pre-sales. And like what @POTUS says, he has tracked box office for 2 years, and 4x+ multiplier from pre-sales are very rare, and only happens to Jungle Book. But what alot of us failed to realize was this... something so obvious and glaring (like the weakness in the deathstar). Because this was right infront of us all this time, on the China Poster... Disney played his cards well, R1 is not a typical hollywood movie that needs to follow a 2.75 - 3.25x multiplier... because Rogue One has Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen. 2 of the biggest stars in China Market. For those who do not know, there are a few categorizes of Stars in China. We have Fresh Meat-小鲜肉 (Young, Up and Comers who may have been a singer previously) whose movie scores at review websites are inflated and pre-sales are outstanding because their fans are young generation who are great at social media. Another category are the established seasoned actors(实力派）like Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen。 The key is this, for the latter category, which includes name like Donnie Yen, Jackie Chan and Jet Li... pre-sales for their movies are often(not always) disappointing. And it feels like a heartache tracking their movie pre-sales in China. But what they have are passer-by fans （路人粉）. They are a big art of Chinese culture, their movies are always showing on TV, but their friends may be of older generations and not that technological savvy. These passer-by fans may not even know DY or JL has a movie coming out, but they just need to take a stroll after work... see Donnie Yen's face on a poster, and buy the tickets without even watching the trailers(Walk-Ins). I remember tracking Donnie Yen's Kung Fu Jungle in 2014, the pre-sales were pathetic, but the opening day outperformed. That is why Disney has the trump card, with Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen onboard, pre-sales number may not look good, but people not from top-tier cities(eg: Beijing/Shanghai) still know these guys. These people may be from more rural part of the country, but they just need to see DY/JW's face on the poster and will buy the tickets. There is no doubt Rogue One will drop drasically from TFA. But having Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen is really helping to boost the box office a lot, because without them, R1 would have suffered much much more. So for those un-initiated. Don't ask "Why R1 cannot outgross TFA despite having chinese stars.", because TFA indirectly killed R1 as it was badly received in China and in fact the chinese stars are already helping based on this pre-sales multiplier. Of course, there will be people who disagree, and have other reasonings for why the multiplier is better than we thought. But from what I am reading on Weibo, Tieba...chinese social media sites and speaking to my friends who live in China, this really seems to be the case. The OD is okay, what happens after these is really on WOM (which relates back to subs/dubs/title translation issues which is another topic altogether).

Passengers will be a huge competitor.

Wanted to take this chance to post about Rogue One's first day performance at the Chinese Box Office. Which was not incredible, but definitely did much better than expectations (our expectations were lowered due to Pre-sales). I understand that not a lot of you here are familiar with the Chinese Box Office, as most will only check the threads there or read up on pre-sales comparison when a film you like is going to show and hopes the international total accelerates because China is a big market. I don't claim to be an expert, but I have been tracking the Chinese Box Office on-and-off for a few years now. So last night at 10.00pm (GMT+8), the presales of Rogue One was 15.5 - 16m yuan (depends on which Chinese tracking site you use). A lot of us were looking at the numbers daily, since pre-sales started, but the pre-sales never picked up... Base on most posters at the Chinese forum, you guys will know that OD for a Hollywood movie is usually 2.75 - 3.25. Which means 44m - 52m Yuan OD is to be expected. So even the most optimistic of us were looking at 60m Yuan OD. And this big drop from TFA is to be expected, as TFA was so badly received in China... Lightsaber fight scenes were nothing compared what chinese viewers are used to seeing, how Wushu Champs like Jet Li and Donnie Yen handles weapon on screen. (For full details on how TFA is impacting R1 negatively in China, read this: http://chinafilminsider.com/screen-china-force-not-strong-rogue-one/) So this Opening Numbers was supposed to mean a Big Disappointment, considered a big flop in China. But right now, 30minutes before official estimates come in, we are looking at a 70m Yuan OD (around 10m USD), better than all of us has expected, a >4x multipler from pre-sales. And like what @POTUS says, he has tracked box office for 2 years, and 4x+ multiplier from pre-sales are very rare, and only happens to Jungle Book. But what alot of us failed to realize was this... something so obvious and glaring (like the weakness in the deathstar). Because this was right infront of us all this time, on the China Poster... Disney played his cards well, R1 is not a typical hollywood movie that needs to follow a 2.75 - 3.25x multiplier... because Rogue One has Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen. 2 of the biggest stars in China Market. For those who do not know, there are a few categorizes of Stars in China. We have Fresh Meat-小鲜肉 (Young, Up and Comers who may have been a singer previously) whose movie scores at review websites are inflated and pre-sales are outstanding because their fans are young generation who are great at social media. Another category are the established seasoned actors(实力派）like Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen。 The key is this, for the latter category, which includes name like Donnie Yen, Jackie Chan and Jet Li... pre-sales for their movies are often(not always) disappointing. And it feels like a heartache tracking their movie pre-sales in China. But what they have are passer-by fans （路人粉）. They are a big art of Chinese culture, their movies are always showing on TV, but their friends may be of older generations and not that technological savvy. These passer-by fans may not even know DY or JL has a movie coming out, but they just need to take a stroll after work... see Donnie Yen's face on a poster, and buy the tickets without even watching the trailers(Walk-Ins). I remember tracking Donnie Yen's Kung Fu Jungle in 2014, the pre-sales were pathetic, but the opening day outperformed. That is why Disney has the trump card, with Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen onboard, pre-sales number may not look good, but people not from top-tier cities(eg: Beijing/Shanghai) still know these guys. These people may be from more rural part of the country, but they just need to see DY/JW's face on the poster and will buy the tickets. There is no doubt Rogue One will drop drasically from TFA. But having Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen is really helping to boost the box office a lot, because without them, R1 would have suffered much much more. So for those un-initiated. Don't ask "Why R1 cannot outgross TFA despite having chinese stars.", because TFA indirectly killed R1 as it was badly received in China and in fact the chinese stars are already helping based on this pre-sales multiplier. Of course, there will be people who disagree, and have other reasonings for why the multiplier is better than we thought. But from what I am reading on Weibo, Tieba...chinese social media sites and speaking to my friends who live in China, this really seems to be the case. The OD is okay, what happens after these is really on WOM (which relates back to subs/dubs/title translation issues which is another topic altogether).

Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen films, especially DY's films.. Pre-sales are always low, but the multiplier are always good. These are seasoned actors, not the fresh meats whose fans are online fans... DY and JW have a lot of 路人粉 (passer-by) fans who have no idea what movies are showing, but they just need to walk past the cinema, see Donnie Yen on the poster and buy the tickets (walk-ins). They don't usually book tickets online.