Because Japan is a wild card, it's an unpredictable market, it could make those 11m you are hoping for (or even more) or it could bomb really hard and make less than 3m.
And Jennifer's latest movies had kind of flopped, or haven't had a great performance there:
XMA: 7.36M
Joy: had a release date scheduled but it never opened.
Mp2: 1.22M
Mp1: 1.60M
XMDOFP: 9.98M