MikeQ

Though perhaps not that meaningful as far as Oscar prognostication goes, it is nevertheless a nice one-two punch for Netflix to have Marriage Story win Best Picture at the Gotham Awards and then The Irishman win Best Picture at NBR, starting off the awards season. I haven't yet watched Marriage Story, but I loved The Irishman. It felt meaningful and packs a quiet punch by the end. Peace, Mike

The song is good - I like it and the musicality of it. But as I was listening to it I kept thinking the song sounds awfully familiar, like I've already heard this before from Cats. I'm not very familiar with the musical/story of Cats, but I did some searching, and sure enough, to me, this song sounds like a close relative of 'Memory'. Musically, it almost feels like they wanted a song in a similar vein to Memory, but was new, so they could have an eligible original song for the Oscars. Peace, Mike

Sean’s article is a great read - I encourage people to read it. “HOWEVER — and this is a big however — what they chose to put behind the IMDb Pro paywall makes little sense to me, and breaks a huge value Mojo once had, editorially speaking: integrated data. Our original team’s site design philosophy was always: every chart should be accessible within two or three clicks. Moving major content to a completely different website, IMDb Pro, breaks that integrated and unified experience. Why not just let Pro users just log into their IMDb accounts and view this stuff on Mojo? But a deeper criticism here is one of editorial focus and understanding of the core vision of Box Office Mojo. Overlooking a key element of box office reporting, namely, theater counts, illustrates a myopic view the product. Perhaps theater counts were not highly trafficked on Mojo, so they were left on the cutting room floor? If this were behind the Pro paywall, that would be one thing, but any hardcore weekly box office tracker knows that breaking theater counts news is essential.” And much more that he articulates very well. Peace, Mike

I drafted a quick email which I sent to mail@boxofficemojo.com. I'm not naive, and yes, my life goes on. In the grand scheme of things, this isn't important. But I have made a hobby out of following box office for about 20 years (and discussing it for most of those years as well). I am someone who makes a habit of writing my elected representatives and various organizations to have my voice heard in this world, so I simply felt compelled to share my perspective with BOM. If you feel compelled to do so, you're welcome to use my email as a template and revise as needed. Peace, Mike

What everyone has said has been spot on. The new site is terrible. As a box office nerd, BOM was my go-to site for box office information, records, theatre counts, breakdowns, etc. The previous site didn't have a sleek look, but it contained highly accessible information - which, as mentioned, was all logically organized for the most part. In particular, I relied on the calendar format for viewing daily box office in an accessible way to make calculations and crunch box office numbers. I know, #firstworldproblems, but as someone who has made a hobby out of following the box office, I am really disappointed with the loss of the site as it was. I'm okay with some information being accessible through a paid subscription only - and for a reasonable price, I would actually subscribe. My issue is with everything else, namely the unintuitive redesign, the loss of functionality, the loss of key basic information, etc. Peace, Mike

As has been noted by many, a fantastic weekend drop for Joker, at both the domestic and international box office. In the age of large preview grosses, to drop only 42.8% in its second weekend is exceptional. Comparisons to other comic book movies demonstrate just how terrific the drop is: Best 2nd Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — 2nd Weekend Gross (Drop from Opening Weekend) Avengers: Endgame — 147.4 million (-58.7%) Avengers: Infinity War — 114.8 million (-55.5%) Black Panther (2018) — 111.7 million (-44.7%) Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 103.1 million (-50.3%) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 77.7 million (-59.4%) The Dark Knight (2008) — 75.2 million (-52.5%) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 72.6 million (-59.5%) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 72.5 million (-58.4%) Spider-Man (2002) — 71.4 million (-37.8%) Captain Marvel (2019) — 68.0 million (-55.7%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 65.3 million (-55.5%) The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 62.1 million (-61.4%) Wonder Woman (2017) — 58.5 million (-43.3%) Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 58.2 million (-61.5%) Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 57.1 million (-53.5%) Deadpool (2016) — 56.5 million (-57.4%) Joker (2019) — 55.0 million (-42.8%) Aquaman (2018) — 52.1 million (-23.2%)^ Iron Man 2 (2010) — 52.0 million (-59.4%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 51.3 million (-69.1%) Iron Man (2008) — 51.2 million (-48.1%) Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) — 45.4 million (-51.0%)* Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 45.2 million (-48.7%)* Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 44.2 million (-62.2%) Suicide Squad (2016) — 43.5 million (-67.4%) Deadpool 2 (2018) — 43.5 million (-65.4%)*** Doctor Strange (2016) — 43.0 million (-49.5%) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 42.1 million (-55.3%) Man of Steel (2013) — 41.3 million (-64.6%)** *Opened on a Tuesday/Wednesday **Opened on Father’s Day Weekend ***Second weekend was Memorial Day weekend ^Second weekend was December holiday weekend Peace, Mike

I loved this, and Renée Zellweger is exceptionally good. And seeing just how impactful the movie was for my mom was really lovely too. As someone who grew up with Judy Garland, she was blown away at how well Zellweger captured her. Peace, Mike

I kind of loved this, warts and all. It was a whole lot more epic than I thought it would be (I haven't read the book), with different interesting horror elements. And it was funny. But most of all, I cared for the characters, which made their journey worth following. The film takes the time to define the characters as adults and make the connections to their childhoods. I didn't re-watch the first before I saw it, and now I'm looking forward to eventually watching both films together. Peace, Mike

This is from True Friday, right (as opposed to Friday including previews)? Peace, Mike

While it won't hit 100 million, it is still a great opening in my book. For me, seeing that this would be the highest grossing opening for a horror film if the first film didn't exist, puts this in perspective. So, while I suppose it could have opened better, and understand someone feeling disappointed, this still seems like a great opening all things considered (the first really captured the zeitgeist in a way the second can't; the near 3 hour runtime; etc). Largest Horror Film Opening Weekends It (2017) — 123.4 million It: Chapter 2 (2019) — 88.0-90.0 million (est.) I Am Legend (2007) — 77.2 million Halloween (2018) — 76.2 million Us (2019) — 71.1 million War of the Worlds (2005) — 64.9 million Signs (2002) — 60.1 million Paranormal Activity 3 (2011) — 52.6 million Van Helsing (2004) — 51.7 million Prometheus (2012) — 51.1 million The Village (2004) — 50.7 million A Quiet Place (2018) — 50.2 million The Conjuring (2013) — 41.9 million Shutter Island (2010) — 41.1 million Paranormal Activity 2 (2010) — 40.7 million Friday the 13th (2009) — 40.6 million The Conjuring 2 (2016) — 40.4 million Insidious Chapter 2 (2013) — 40.3 million Split (2017) — 40.0 million The Grudge (2004) — 39.1 million Alien vs. Predator (2004) — 38.3 million Annabelle (2014) — 37.1 million Freddy vs. Jason (2003) — 36.4 million Interview with the Vampire (1994) — 36.4 million Alien: Covenant (2017) — 36.2 million The Ring Two (2005) — 35.1 million Annabelle: Creation (2017) — 35.0 million Scream 3 (2000) — 34.7 million The Purge (2013) — 34.1 million The Devil Inside (2012) — 33.7 million Saw III (2006) — 33.6 million The Haunting (1999) — 33.4 million Get Out (2017) — 33.4 million Scream 2 (1997) — 32.9 million Side note: I'm reminded of how incredible the opening weekend for 'Us' was as an original horror film. Peace, Mike

D'oh! Google lied to me - when you google 'It runtime' it says '2h 35m' (at least for me). Thanks for the correction. Peace, Mike

If 'It: Chapter 2' hits $100+ million for the weekend, I am incredibly impressed. Back-to-back $100+ million opening films? This is blockbuster status for a horror franchise. Really cool. Peace, Mike

Same Cinemascore grade as the first film, for those wondering. Peace, Mike

Would there be any interest for a Fall/Holiday Season RT Watch (Sep-Dec), similar to the Summer RT watch I've been doing for the last four years? Peace, Mike

With actuals, The Lion King has officially crossed the $1 billion mark internationally, and it will soon be the 7th highest grossing film of all time worldwide. Peace, Mike

Summer RT Update: Only two more wide-release films to be released in the summer movie season according to BOM, which will make for a total of 48 wide-release films this summer. The current updated summer list with 46 films breaks down at 21 ‘Fresh’ films and 25 ‘Rotten’ films - a similar breakdown to the previous summers I have tracked (every summer has somewhat more ‘Rotten’ than ‘Fresh’ films, like clockwork so far). Only Toy Story 4 and Booksmart hit the elusive 8+ average rating this summer. 2019 — 46 wide-release films (*SO FAR*) 21 fresh, 25 rotten 80% or higher: 14 films 8.0+ rating: 2 films (Toy Story 4, Booksmart) 2019 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August) Toy Story 4 — 97% — 8.4 rating Booksmart — 97% — 8.3 rating John Wick: Chapter 3 — 90% — 7.5 rating Spider-Man: Far From Home — 90% — 7.4 rating Blinded by the Light — 90% — 7.4 rating Rocketman — 89% — 7.6 rating Ready for Not — 87% — 7.2 rating Once Upon a Time In Hollywood — 85% — 7.8 rating Midsommar — 83% — 7.5 rating Dora and the Lost City of Gold — 83% — 6.4 rating Long Shot — 81% — 7.1 rating Crawl — 81% — 6.4 rating Late Night — 80% — 6.8 rating Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark — 80% — 6.6 rating Good Boys — 78% — 6.5 rating The Angry Birds Movie 2 — 74% — 5.8 rating Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw — 67% — 6.1 rating Pokémon Detective Pikachu — 67% — 6.0 rating Annabelle Comes Home — 65% — 5.8 rating Child’s Play — 64% — 5.8 rating Yesterday — 63% — 6.4 rating Secret Life of Pets 2 — 59% — 5.8 rating Brian Banks — 58% — 5.9 rating Aladdin — 57% — 5.9 rating Brightburn — 57% — 5.6 rating Ma — 54% — 5.6 rating The Lion King — 53% — 6.0 rating Tolkien — 51% — 5.8 rating The Sun Is Also a Star — 51% — 5.7 rating 47 Meters Down: Uncaged — 50% — 4.7 rating A Dog’s Journey — 49% — 5.2 rating Where’d You Go, Bernadette — 47% — 5.6 rating Stuber — 43% — 5.1 rating The Art of Racing in the Rain — 42% — 5.1 rating Godzilla: King of the Monsters — 41% — 5.2 rating Angel Has Fallen — 40% — 5.0 rating Overcomer — 38% — 5.1 rating Poms — 34% — 4.8 rating Shaft — 32% — 4.6 rating Anna — 31% — 4.5 rating The Intruder — 30% — 4.2 rating UglyDolls — 27% — 4.4 rating Dark Phoenix — 23% — 4.6 rating The Kitchen — 22% — 4.5 rating Men in Black International — 22% — 4.5 rating The Hustle — 14% — 3.9 rating Previous summers: 2018 — 45 wide-release films 22 fresh, 23 rotten 80% or higher: 13 films 8.0+ rating: 3 films (BlacKkKlansman, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, and Hereditary) 2017 — 42 wide-release films 18 fresh, 24 rotten 80% or higher: 14 films 8.0+ rating: 4 films (Dunkirk, The Big Sick, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver) 2016 — 42 wide-release films 20 fresh, 22 rotten 80% or higher: 9 films 8.0+ rating: 1 film (Kubo and the Two Strings) Peace, Mike

Good points - Disney+ could still prove to be strong in those areas. But yeah, the biggest absence would be adult shows, in the same vein of House of Cards, Game of Thrones, Big Little Lies, etc, I think. But that may not matter any to Disney, who probably isn't at all concerned with trying to capture that audience. And I suppose they're banking on Hulu on filling that gap. Peace, Mike

I agree. It seems to me that the only way Apple TV+ could really have something going for it is if their original shows are all really excellent and Apple sort of brands itself as the new HBO, with a smaller pool of high quality content (which is exactly how HBO has defined itself). Or, I thought maybe Apple might do something radical and actually offer their TV+ service for free to owners of Apple products (at least at first), which would perhaps entice people into the Apple ecosystem, and therefore prove to be monetarily beneficial in other ways. But it doesn't seem they will go that direction. I think Disney+ looks to be off to a great start, but the question for me is similar to your observation and about the long term - how will Disney fare in terms of the growth and retention of subscribers? It could fare really well, but that's the open question for me. If their content is mostly (at least initially) Marvel, Star Wars, and animation/Pixar/kids-oriented, can it really be a "Netflix killer" or replace a streaming service like HBO? What happens if you want to watch reality TV? Or cooking and baking shows? Or an adult sitcom? Etc? What is Disney's strategy for the coming years beyond their established IPs? Will Disney create any shows in the near future that will become ingrained in the cultural zeitgeist, like Netflix's Stranger Things and HBO's Game of Thrones, and other past shows? Disney has a great back catalog, but what is the strategy for content over the years? On the other hand, Disney is such a behemoth currently in the theatrical scene, that their theatrically released MCU, Star Wars, Pixar films, etc, over the coming years, could be enough enticement alone for a significant group of people to find Disney+ really valuable. And what will be Disney's subscriber growth trends worldwide? Netflix, even as it stagnates in America, has a large and growing footprint internationally, and invests in shows of different languages and cultures - will Disney do this too? Is it necessary to do this? Just stuff I ponder as we head soon into another new era of streaming and "cord-cutting" grows. Peace, Mike

Aladdin now sits at a terrific 3.86 multiplier - which is, again, mighty impressive in my book given the inflated 3-day opening weekend due to Memorial Day. This weekend's loss of theatres and screens really hurt it, so I don't think it will be able to match or exceed American Sniper or Inside Out on the multiplier front, unless it has an exceptionally healthy Labour Day weekend boost. Toy Story 4 also just cracked the top 20 multipliers for 70+M Friday openers, with a 3.47 multiplier. It will also finish with an impressive multiplier, when all is said and done - particularly for the fourth instalment and largest opening weekend of the franchise. Toy Story 3 opened almost 10 years ago, and Toy Story 4 will come close to the third film's multiplier. Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers): Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73) Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84) Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00) Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94) American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92) Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.86)^ Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78) Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76) The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71) Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65) Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58) The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53) The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52) Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52) The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (2013) — 73.6 million (3.51) Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.47)^ Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47) Skyfall (2012) — 88.4 million (3.44) Peace, Mike

Toy Story 4 just made $4.53M this weekend for a nearly $420M total - even without any Labour Day boost there is no way it only ends with $427-429M, that's only another 7-9M. Peace, Mike

A featurette, for those interested: Peace, Mike

That's my impression as well - that even if Tenet faltered somewhat financially, WB would still give Nolan another opportunity to make an original big budget film. Not only has he had overall box office success relative to budget for his last three original films, they also all received Oscar nominations and wins (Inception: 8 noms/4 wins; Interstellar: 5 noms/1 win; Dunkrik: 8 noms/3 wins), with two of his last three being nominated for Best Picture. Peace, Mike

I should have known you would have put the work into doing this, given how much work you put into the tracking thread. Very well said! Peace, Mike

Once again, let's take a look at the Summer Game predictions for The Lion King to get a realistic sense of expectations: Average prediction for Domestic Gross: $549.99M Average prediction for Worldwide Gross: $1.424B At bare minimum, The Lion King is meeting general expectations, if not slightly exceeding them. Peace, Mike

I agree. With opening weekend previews excluded, Incredibles 2 dropped 51% on its second weekend. An equivalent drop for The Lion King sans previews would lead to about 82M for its second weekend (~57% drop overall). Incredibles 2 had a 56% drop overall, and still went on to have a 3.3 multiplier. The Lion King could potentially do similarly in terms of legs overall, even with a large second weekend drop, if general WOM is good enough. Peace, Mike