MikeQ

When/if Sinemia becomes less convoluted/confusing to use (right now having to manually enter info, switch back and forth from apps to buy the ticket, enter a temporary credit card number, etc, is just not convenient at all) and has a better app design, etc, then I will consider signing up with them. I would love to have a good subscription service for movies. Moviepass and AMC Stubs A-list aren't available in Canada, so neither of those are options for me either, and obviously the whole surge-pricing situation with Moviepass is not ideal anyway. Peace, Mike

Assuming Incredibles 2 is making an estimated $7.5M this weekend based on it's Friday number, then if it were to have the same remaining legs as Finding Dory, it would hit ~603M total domestic. I'm now at a point where I feel quite strongly that 600M+ is happening. It continues to hold better than Finding Dory. Peace, Mike

Good for MI6 - looking at a ~60M weekend and over 200M total domestic gross. Could even potentially be the highest grossing Mission: Impossible film unadjusted with great legs bringing it to $216M. To still be churning out successful and profitable runs (and a great, critically acclaimed movie) six films in is impressive. Peace, Mike

It is so early, but if MI6's Friday hits the upper end of Deadline's Friday projection, and it follows it's predecessor, Rogue Nation, over the weekend and total run, then it is looking at a ~66M weekend and a ~231M total domestic gross. If it hits the mid-range of Deadline's projection, it is still looking at ~61M weekend ~215M total. Either of these would be really strong, in my opinion, and essentially a best for the franchise (unadjusted), six films in. Combined with it's critical acclaim, this would be a definite win for the franchise. But again, it is still early. Comparing this film to the adjusted opening weekends and grosses of the first two films in the series is really problematic, as the first two films opened in years 1996 and 2000, eons ago when it comes to the theatrical/box office landscape and changes in media consumption. It really doesn't make sense to make those comparisons. Peace, Mike

Summer RT Watch Update: MI6 looks to be the most critically acclaimed wide-release film this summer (so far at least) and one of the most critically acclaimed films of the last two summers as well (I've been doing my Summer RT Watch since 2016). Only The Big Sick has the same Tomato-meter (98%, 8.2 rating), and only Dunkirk (92%, 8.7 rating) and Kubo and the Two Strings (97%, 8.4 rating) have a better average rating. So far, the summer currently sits at 15 "Fresh" and 15 "Rotten" films. 2018 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August) Mission: Impossible - Fallout — 98% — 8.3 rating Incredibles 2 — 93% — 7.9 rating Hereditary — 89% — 8.2 rating Teen Titans Go! To the Movies — 88% — 7.2 rating Tully — 87% — 7.7 rating Ant-Man and the Wasp — 87% — 6.9 rating Upgrade — 85% — 7.1 rating Deadpool 2 — 82% — 7.0 rating Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again — 80% — 6.3 rating Adrift — 72% — 6.2 rating Solo: A Star Wars Story — 71% — 6.4 rating Ocean’s 8 — 67% — 6.2 rating Uncle Drew — 65% — 6.0 rating Sicario: Day of the Soldado — 64% — 6.4 rating Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation — 61% — 5.4 rating Unfriended: Dark Web — 59% — 5.6 rating Hotel Artemis — 57% — 5.8 rating Tag — 55% — 5.5 rating Book Club — 53% — 5.3 rating The First Purge — 53% — 5.3 rating Bad Samaritan — 52% — 5.6 rating Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 51% — 5.7 rating Equalizer 2 — 50% — 5.6 rating Superfly — 51% — 5.4 rating Skyscraper — 49% — 5.2 rating Life of the Party — 38% — 5.0 rating Overboard — 26% — 4.2 rating Breaking In — 25% — 4.2 rating Action Point — 20% — 3.6 rating Show Dogs — 18% — 3.2 rating 2017 — 42 wide-release films 18 fresh, 24 rotten 80% or higher: 14 films 8.0+ rating: 4 films (Dunkirk, The Big Sick, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver) 2016 — 42 wide-release films 20 fresh, 22 rotten 80% or higher: 9 films 8.0+ rating: 1 film (Kubo and the Two Strings) Peace, Mike

Fallen Kingdom will be close to 400M after this weekend. Some have said that the film would barely cross 400M total domestic (if at all), but it will easily pass that mark and now it's looking poised to hit 415M+ total. Peace, Mike

Summer RT Update: The Mamma Mia sequel ends up Certified Fresh, whereas the rest of the recent openers are all Rotten on RT. Meanwhile, upcoming opener 'Mission: Impossible - Fallout' could end up the most critically acclaimed wide-release film of the summer, and will be only the second film of the summer with an 8+ average rating. With 67 reviews in, it sits at 96% with a terrific 8.5 rating. 2018 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August) Mission: Impossible - Fallout — 96% — 8.5 rating The Incredibles 2 — 94% — 7.9 rating Hereditary — 89% — 8.2 rating Tully — 87% — 7.7 rating Ant-Man and the Wasp — 87% — 6.9 rating Upgrade — 85% — 7.1 rating Deadpool 2 — 82% — 7.0 rating Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again — 79% — 6.2 rating Adrift — 72% — 6.2 rating Solo: A Star Wars Story — 71% — 6.4 rating Ocean’s 8 — 67% — 6.2 rating Uncle Drew — 65% — 6.0 rating Sicario: Day of the Soldado — 64% — 6.4 rating Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation — 59% — 5.5 rating Hotel Artemis — 57% — 5.8 rating Unfriended: Dark Web — 57% — 5.4 rating Tag — 55% — 5.5 rating Book Club — 53% — 5.3 rating The First Purge — 53% — 5.3 rating Bad Samaritan — 52% — 5.6 rating Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 51% — 5.7 rating Equalizer 2 — 51% — 5.6 rating Superfly — 51% — 5.4 rating Skyscraper — 50% — 5.2 rating Life of the Party — 38% — 5.0 rating Overboard — 26% — 4.2 rating Breaking In — 25% — 4.2 rating Action Point — 20% — 3.6 rating Show Dogs — 18% — 3.2 rating 2017 — 42 wide-release films 18 fresh, 24 rotten 80% or higher: 14 films 8.0+ rating: 4 films (Dunkirk, The Big Sick, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver) 2016 — 42 wide-release films 20 fresh, 22 rotten 80% or higher: 9 films 8.0+ rating: 1 film (Kubo and the Two Strings) Peace, Mike

Updated multipliers list for 70M+ openers (films still in theatres highlighted in blue and indicates most up-to-date multiplier): Top Opening Weekends of All-Time & Multipliers Close to wrapping up their runs: Black Panther will finish with a 3.47 multiplier at 700M when all is said and done. Infinity War looking like it will finish with a 2.63 multiplier. Deadpool 2 will finish with a 2.53-2.54 multiplier. Solo will finish with a 2.52 multiplier. More recent openers: Incredibles 2 currently sits at a 3.05 multiplier, and if it finishes in the 600-615M area, will be looking at a ~3.3-3.4 final multiplier. Jurassic World 2 sits at a 2.59 multiplier, and if it finishes in the 410-415M area, will be looking at ~2.80 multiplier Ant-Man and the Wasp sits at a 2.17 multiplier. Peace, Mike

Fallen Kingdom is going to easily glide past 400M, being at 383.9M total after an $11M weekend. Incredibles 2 has now been outpacing Finding Dory for four weekends in a row, having better legs since the harder drop in the second weekend: Weekend Drops: ——— FD ——— I2 W2: 46.0% — 56.0% W3: 42.7% — 42.2% W4: 50.2% — 38.8% W5: 45.8% — 42.7% W6: 35.9% — 29.2% The same legs as Finding Dory from here on out gets Incredibles 2 to ~600M total domestic. Peace, Mike

Perhaps not, as the same Saturday increase (from True Friday) and Sunday decrease as the original Ant-Man brings it to 82M for the weekend (very nearly the same as Deadline's projected 81.5M). This is all assuming 34M for the Friday gross is accurate. THU: 11.5M FRI: 22.5M SAT: 27M (+20%) SUN: 21M (-22%) ----------------- WKD TOTAL: 82M It's Saturday increase or Sunday decrease could end up being better, for a mid-80s opening or so. Either way, all good news for Ant-Man and the Wasp, as it has increased substantially from the original. Peace, Mike

With 11.5M in previews, if Ant-Man and The Wasp follows: - The original Ant-Man, it is looking at a 40.7M Friday and 103M weekend. - Spider-Man: Homecoming, it is looking at a 37.7M Friday and 87M weekend. - Thor: Ragnarok, it is looking at 37.1M Friday and 97M weekend. Take your pick, heh. I think it will be somewhat more frontloaded than the original Ant-Man, so a weekend gross somewhere in the 90M range then? Which, of course, would be terrific, and a huge increase from the first film. Peace, Mike

JW2 -38.5% from Thursday, and Incredibles 2 -26% (better than I expected). JW2 down 37.8% from last week heading into the weekend. Incredibles 2 down 28.9% from last week. Friday increases will be more muted than last week, but looks like solid holds for both regardless (maybe even a great one for Incredibles 2, all things considered). Peace, Mike

Incredibles 2 actuals (per The-Numbers): - Tuesday: $10,278,385 - Wednesday: $9,646,015 TOTAL as of Wednesday: $468,190,380 I think it will hit the $500M mark by Sunday. Peace, Mike

The-numbers has some updates/actuals: Jurassic World 2: - Tuesday: $11,891,170 - Wednesday: $11,501,395 Total gross as of Wednesday: $297,672,320 The First Purge Wednesday: $9,305,875 Peace, Mike

So looks like: 1. Jurassic World 2 — 11.4M (-4%) 2. Incredibles 2 — 9.4M (-8%) 3. The First Purge — 9.2M 4. Sicario — 2.6M (+0%) 5. Uncle Drew — 2.2M (-11%) 6. Ocean’s 8 — 2.1M (+14.5%) 7. Tag — 1.2M (-2%) 8. Deadpool 2 (?) — 800K (+14%) These numbers make sense to me based on the 2012 weekday pattern. Most films increased on the July 4th Wednesday in 2012, but with much more muted Tuesday increases (or even drops) likely due to 1) discount Tuesday being somewhat less of a thing and 2) The Amazing Spider-Man opening with $35M on the Tuesday. Peace, Mike

EmpireCity liked this post, so looks like: 1. Jurassic World 2 — 11.4M (-4%) 2. Incredibles 2 — 9.4M (-8%) 3. The First Purge — 9.2M 4. Sicario — 2.6M (+0%) 5. Uncle Drew — 2.2M (-11%) 6. Ocean’s 8 — 2.1M (+14.5%) 7. Tag — 1.2M (-2%) 8. Deadpool 2 (?) — 800K (+14%) These numbers make sense to me based on the 2012 weekday pattern. Most films increased on the July 4th Wednesday in 2012, but with much more muted Tuesday increases (or even drops) likely due to 1) discount Tuesday being somewhat less of a thing and 2) The Amazing Spider-Man opening with $35M on the Tuesday. Peace, Mike

Yeah, even the original Ant-Man was more previews heavy than the Jurassic World sequel. Ant-Man's share of its opening weekend from previews is 11.2% versus Fallen Kingdom's 10.3%. The Jurassic World series is showing itself to be very walk-up based (or less preview heavy, to be technical), even with its sequel, as you mention. Peace, Mike

Taking a look back at how movies performed through the week in 2012, the last time July 4th fell on a Wednesday, Incredibles 2 could potentially hit $500M, or close to it, by the end of this coming weekend. And 2012 had The Amazing Spider-Man opening on the Tuesday (a big $35M Tuesday). It will definitely pass Dory this weekend to become the highest grossing animated film of all time domestically. Peace, Mike

Infinity War looking to finish with ~2.63 multiplier (very strong, I think, considering the juggernaut of an opening weekend it had, and being the third film in a series). Deadpool 2 looking to finish somewhere around a 2.51 to 2.55 multiplier (pretty dang good, especially after dropping 65% in its second weekend). Black Panther sits at a 3.46 multiplier (will finish with a 3.47 multiplier if it hits 700M), which is one of the best CBM multipliers of all time, and especially for such a huge opening. Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Openers Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier) (3+ multipliers highlighted in red) Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 257.7 million (2.61)^ Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (3.00) Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.46)^ Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 191.3 million (2.40) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (2.28) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (2.35) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 166.0 million (1.99) The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 160.9 million (2.79) The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (3.38) Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 151.1 million (2.23) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 146.5 million (2.66) Suicide Squad (2016) — 133.7 million (2.43) Deadpool (2016) — 132.4 million (2.74) Iron Man 2 (2010) — 128.1 million (2.44) Deadpool 2 (2018) — 125.5 million (2.47)^ Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 122.7 million (2.57) Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 117.0 million (2.86) Man of Steel (2013) — 116.6 million (2.50) Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00) X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 102.8 million (2.28) Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (3.23) Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 95.0 million (2.73) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) Justice League (2017) — 93.8 million (2.44) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 91.6 million (2.21) X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) — 90.8 million (2.58) Logan (2017) — 88.4 million (2.56) Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 88.2 million* Thor: The Dark World (2013) — 85.7 million (2.41) X2: X-Men United (2003) — 85.6 million (2.51) Doctor Strange (2016) — 85.1 million (2.74) X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) — 85.1 million (2.11) 300 (2007) — 70.9 million (2.97) X-Men: Apocalypse (2016) — 65.8 million (2.36) Thor (2011) — 65.7 million (2.75) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) — 65.6 million (2.92) Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) — 65.1 million (2.72) Hulk (2003) — 62.1 million (2.13) The Amazing Spider-Man (2012) — 62.0 million** Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) — 58.1 million (2.27) Ant-Man (2015) — 57.2 million (3.15) Fantastic Four (2005) — 56.1 million (2.76) The Incredible Hulk (2008) — 55.4 million (2.43) Watchmen (2009) — 55.2 million (1.95) X-Men: First Class (2011) — 55.1 million (2.66) MIB 3 (2012) — 54.6 million (3.28) X-Men (2000) — 54.5 million (2.89) Green Lantern (2011) — 53.2 million (2.19) The Wolverine (2013) — 53.1 million (2.49) Batman Forever (1995) — 52.8 million (3.49) Superman Returns (2006) — 52.5 million* Men in Black II (2002) — 52.1 million* Men in Black (1997) — 51.1 million* Batman Begins (2005) — 48.7 million* Batman Returns (1992) — 45.7 million (3.56) Ghost Rider (2007) — 45.4 million (2.55) 300: Rise of an Empire (2014) — 45.0 million (2.37) Batman and Robin (1997) — 42.9 million (2.50) Batman (1989) — 40.5 million (6.20) Daredevil (2003) — 40.3 million (2.54) *Wednesday Opener (thus not comparable) **Tuesday Opener (thus not comparable) ^So Far - Box Office Run Not Yet Complete Peace, Mike

Summer RT Update: Sitting at 11 Fresh, 11 Rotten right now. 2018 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August) The Incredibles 2 — 93% — 7.9 rating Hereditary — 89% — 8.2 rating Ant-Man and the Wasp — 89% — 6.8 rating Tully — 87% — 7.7 rating Upgrade — 85% — 7.1 rating Deadpool 2 — 82% — 7.0 rating Adrift — 72% — 6.2 rating Solo: A Star Wars Story — 70% — 6.4 rating Ocean’s 8 — 67% — 6.2 rating Uncle Drew — 67% — 6.1 rating Sicario: Day of the Soldado — 62% — 6.3 rating Hotel Artemis — 57% — 5.8 rating Tag — 55% — 5.5 rating Book Club — 53% — 5.3 rating Bad Samaritan — 52% — 5.6 rating Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 51% — 5.7 rating Superfly — 51% — 5.4 rating Life of the Party — 38% — 5.0 rating Overboard — 26% — 4.2 rating Breaking In — 25% — 4.2 rating Action Point — 20% — 3.6 rating Show Dogs — 18% — 3.2 rating 2017 — 42 wide-release films 18 fresh, 24 rotten 80% or higher: 14 films 8.0+ rating: 4 films (Dunkirk, The Big Sick, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver) 2016 — 42 wide-release films 20 fresh, 22 rotten 80% or higher: 9 films 8.0+ rating: 1 film (Kubo and the Two Strings) Peace, Mike

Great rebound for Incredibles 2. After dropping 56% (vs. Dory's 46%) in its second weekend, it dropped virtually the same as Dory (43.3% vs 42.7%) this weekend. Dory then faced the huge $104M opening of Pets, direct competition, in its fourth weekend and dropped 50.2%. I don't expect Incredibles 2 to drop that hard next weekend, even with Ant-Man. It is already at $646.8M worldwide, with it still to open in a lot of international markets through July, August and September. Jurassic World 2 already sitting pretty with $932.4M worldwide on $170M budget. The movie is going to easily glide past the $1 billion mark, and be very profitable. Deadpool 2 sitting at $719M worldwide on a $110M budget is also going to be very profitable. By the end of its run, it will have had a very strong retention in box office from the original, both domestic and worldwide. The film has been an unequivocal success in my book. Peace, Mike

Just sent you a PM. Peace, Mike

A 36% Friday jump for Incredibles 2. Given its somewhat stronger Saturday jump last weekend compared to Dory and Toy Story 3’s respective weekends, I’m anticipating a solid Saturday jump for Incredibles 2. (I also wonder if the different calendar alignment this year, with Friday being only being June 29, instead of July 1 and 2 for Dory and Toy Story 3 respectively, makes a difference. Canada Day is July 1st and most schools in Canada run until end of June, though can’t remember specific end dates in past years. Not sure, just thinking out loud.) Peace, Mike

I hear ya - I’m just a couple hours from you, and it’s gonna be a high of 45 today with the humidity - already at 40. Hot as hell. Peace, Mike

Gotta love when Deadline, Variety, etc, state a projected weekend gross without even telling us a Friday number. I expect Incredibles 2 will be closer to $50M than $40M. Peace, Mike