MikeQ

I'm hoping someone will be able to help me: there used to be a forum post with a link to a spreadsheet (I think a google spreadsheet) with a collection of preview grosses for past films, etc. I'm pretty sure it used to be stickied in the 'Numbers and Data' sub-forum, but it is no longer there. Anyone know where I can find this? Cheers to anyone who is able to help. Peace, Mike

There was a lot to like about this year's ceremony. Being hostless made this one of the best Academy Awards, and there were some great wins and speeches (particularly Regina King and Spike Lee). Olivia Coleman's surprise win gave us a shocker win for the night, which doesn't happen most years. And that Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper performance was perhaps the best musical performance I've ever seen on the show - intimate, well staged, and sung really well live. Even Bradley Cooper held his own. Overall, I'm definitely on the #KeepTheOscarsHostless bandwagon now. And have a great group of funny people open the show as non-hosts. Maya Rudolph, Tina Fey, and Amy Poehler were the best. (I got flashbacks of the three years they hosted the Golden Globes - best hosts ever.) Peace, Mike

The Best Picture category is always potentially up in the air, simply given the fact that it is the one category that uses a preferential ballot for winner selection. Peace, Mike

The Best Director Oscar, for 5 of the last 6 years, has been won by one of the Three Amigos (Alfonso Cuarón, Alejandra Ganzález Iñárritu, and Guillermo del Toro). That is domination from three terrific Mexican directors. Peace, Mike

I am always wary of so-called weekend estimates when a projected Friday gross isn't provided. When a Friday gross is provided, it seems more likely to me that they have actual data from Friday, and I can assess whether their projected internal multiplier for the weekend is a good projection or not. Often, Deadline and elsewhere just don't have the requisite box office knowledge/skill. Peace, Mike

I saw the film today, and it completely abandons the horror in the film itself. It is essentially a campy comedy drama. I like a good campy horror flick, but this movie is almost totally missing the horror element, and fails to juggle the comedy and slasher horror as the first film did rather nicely. Instead, this felt like a superficial sci-fi teen drama - messy and illogical at that. A very disappointing movie. Peace, Mike

I just am not a fan of the look of the characters in this, and feel that some of them have been miscast. Aladdin should look poorer and have only a vest (with no undershirt) - i.e. struggling to get by. Jafar seems miscast to me (based on look and voice), as does Jasmine (though to be fair we haven't seen much of her). Certainly casting and characterization is always a subjective thing, and maybe they're going in a particular direction, but I am not personally a fan based on the little we've seen so far. And Will Smith I think could be a potentially great genie if they chose him to *voice* the character (with a pure CGI creation for the genie), which is what I originally thought they were doing when they had cast him. I don't like the look of the humanoid type genie we're getting. So, I guess it's some kind of a combination of the production design/art direction, casting, costuming, etc, that just feels off to me. Peace, Mike

This was definitely a big year for Netflix on the film side - it will be interesting to see how it fares in the years ahead, in terms of critical acclaim and awards recognition for film. Netflix is also obviously big on the TV side. Last year it topped HBO for the first time for the most nominations at the Emmy's. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-2019-netflix-now-competing-hollywood-studios-1177822 Peace, Mike

Going back to 2009 (i.e. since category expansion) it has happened a couple other times: - Selma (nominated for Best Picture with no other major nominations - it had only a single other nomination, in fact, for Best Original Song). - War Horse (nominated for Best Picture with no other major nominations) Other films that came close: - Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close received only one other nomination outside Picture, for Supporting Actor. - The Post received a Best Actress nod for Meryl Streep and that is the only nomination it had outside Picture. Same for The Blind Side, with Sandra Bullock its only nomination outside Picture. - Her, Inception and A Serious Man's only major nomination outside Picture was Original Screenplay (for A Serious Man it was literally its only other nomination). Similarly, District 9's only other major nomination was Adapted Screenplay. - Best Picture nominees Dunkirk, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Tree of Life, and Avatar received Best Director nominations but no other major nominations. Peace, Mike

If Cuaron wins the Best Director Oscar (which he is probably likely to do), then that award for 5 of the last 6 years will have been won by one of the Three Amigos (Alfonso Cuarón, Alejandra Ganzález Iñárritu, and Guillermo del Toro). Talk about domination from three terrific Mexican directors. Peace, Mike

No nomination for Bradley Cooper in Best Director is a big snub given his support everywhere else (Best Director noms at DGA, Golden Globes, and BAFTA). With 10 nominations (tied for the most), strong support from the actors branch with two acting nominations, and a very likely Best Director win for Alfonso Cuaron, I think Roma is in the lead to win Best Picture. But of course, with a preferential ballot for Best Picture, you never know. Peace, Mike

Roma is actually tied with The Favourite for the most noms (10 noms each). Roma has: Picture Director Actress Supporting Actress Foreign Language Film Original Screenplay Cinematography Sound Editing Sound Mixing Production Design Followed by Vice and A Star is Born (8 nominations each). Then: Black Panther (7 noms) BlacKkKlansman (6 noms) Green Book (5 noms) Bohemian Rhapsody (5 noms) Peace, Mike

Thanks to the December holidays and good WOM, of $40M+ openers, Aquaman will be only the third live action comic book film to hit a 4+ multiplier, and it will have the second best multiplier ever behind only Batman (1989). Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Openers (3+ multipliers in red) Best Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Friday Openers: Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier) Batman (1989) — 40.5 million (6.20) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00) Aquaman (2018) — 67.9 million (3.87)^ Batman Returns (1992) — 45.7 million (3.56) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52) Batman Forever (1995) — 52.8 million (3.49) Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47) The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (3.38) MIB 3 (2012) — 54.6 million (3.28) Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (3.23) Ant-Man (2015) — 57.2 million (3.15) Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (3.00) ^ Run not yet complete Peace, Mike

Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book obviously benefited the most from the Golden Globes, as the Best Picture winners, dropping only 39% and 45% on Monday. But also solid holds from Vice (-57%) and The Favourite (-54%). Peace, Mike

Yes, depending on the calendar configuration, it happens pretty frequently during the December holidays. Mary Poppins Returns will also hit 3x multiplier by the end of its second weekend, even when counting its 5-day opening gross as a 3-day opening. Last year, Jumanji and The Greatest Showman (again, even when counting the 5-day opening gross as its 3-day opening for both), as well as Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing, and Father Figures, all hit a 3x multiplier by the end of their second weekend. The year before that, Sing and Why Him? hit 3x by the end of their second weekend. Etc. Some years this doesn’t happen as much because of the calendar configuration, but there are still other films that come very close to hitting 3x by the end of the second weekend, and still other films that technically hit 3x as well using 3-day opening, but opened on a Wednesday (which is a frequent occurrence some years, again, depending on calendar configuration). Peace, Mike

Thank you for this. I get what you're saying, it is not original in the sense that they aren't the ones that produced it originally. But, as far as their reach as a platform goes, I would still like to highlight it as an example of their Netflix Original content (whether produced originally by them or acquired) finding global audiences. The series is branded as a "Netflix Original", and released as such (acquired, edited, and released worldwide), and they are producing the third season. Peace, Mike

If Deadline's projection of $51.6M for Aquaman proves accurate, it will best Batman v Superman's second weekend despite opening nearly $100M lower. Obviously the December holiday season aids legs, so I'm not suggesting this is a directly comparable situation, but good WOM (versus what was clearly at least mixed WOM for BvS) is helping give the DCEU a leggy holiday success. Best 2nd Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — 2nd Weekend Gross (Drop from Opening Weekend) Avengers: Infinity War — 114.8 million (-55.5%) Black Panther (2018) — 111.7 million (-44.7%) Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 103.1 million (-50.3%) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 77.7 million (-59.4%) The Dark Knight (2008) — 75.2 million (-52.5%) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 72.6 million (-59.5%) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 72.5 million (-58.4%) Spider-Man (2002) — 71.4 million (-37.8%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 65.3 million (-55.5%) The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 62.1 million (-61.4%) Wonder Woman (2017) — 58.5 million (-43.3%) Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 58.2 million (-61.5%) Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 57.1 million (-53.5%) Deadpool (2016) — 56.5 million (-57.4%) Iron Man 2 (2010) — 52.0 million (-59.4%) Aquaman (2018) — 51.6 million (-23.5%)^ Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 51.3 million (-69.1%) Iron Man (2008) — 51.2 million (-48.1%) Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 45.2 million (-48.7%)* Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 44.2 million (-62.2%) Suicide Squad (2016) — 43.5 million (-67.4%) Deadpool 2 (2018) — 43.5 million (-65.4%)*** Doctor Strange (2016) — 43.0 million (-49.5%) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 42.1 million (-55.3%) Man of Steel (2013) — 41.3 million (-64.6%)** *Opened on a Wednesday **Opened on Father’s Day Weekend *** Second weekend was Memorial Day weekend ^December holiday weekend Peace, Mike

Though obviously aided by the December holiday season, Aquaman could have one of the best multipliers ever for a live action comic book movie. Multipliers aren't directly comparable given summer comic book films similarly benefit from summer weekdays, higher opening weekends make a film at least somewhat more frontloaded usually (so high multipliers are generally more impressive the larger the opening weekend), etc - but still, good WOM seems to be driving a strong performance over the holidays. Also, it does seem to highlight how studios have avoided tentpole-ing a comic book film during the December holidays until now. Best Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Friday Openers: Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier) (List under spoiler tag) Peace, Mike

What is interesting about Netflix, and unlike any other video subscription service that I know of, is its global reach. Its growth internationally has been even stronger than in the US, and it still has plenty of room to grow in different markets. And it produces a lot of excellent international original content, like the Brazilian dystopian series 3% and the Spanish crime-thriller Money Heist, etc, etc. And the diverse original content that it produces is available globally. They are finding talent around the world, both within and outside Hollywood system, and producing movies and shows that become hits locally and globally. Seeing what is possible with Bird Box and a star like Sandra Bullock, it will be interesting to see what kinds of movies Netflix produces in the future that could become global cinematic hits. Netflix is creating global television, global media, in a way that no one has ever done before. Peace, Mike

Personally, I don’t see it hitting $300M. It is possible, if not likely, that Grinch will have some large drops after Christmas is done, because it fits squarely in the Christmas genre. I’m not sure how relevant Coco or Moana are as comparisons in this case. For example, ‘How the Grinch Stole Christmas’ dropped 40% the weekend after Christmas (when all other films across the board increased that weekend), and then it had sizeable drops through most of January. Therefore, I would caution against expecting it to perform like Moana or Coco. Peace, Mike Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That is another part of the look I don’t like. Aladdin shouldn’t have an undershirt - just a vest. I genuinely hate to be negative, but the look overall of this movie so far just isn’t for me. Peace, Mike

I totally thought Genie was going to be CGI with Will Smith voicing... whoops. I don’t know about this look. I don’t think I like it. Peace, Mike

If you stand by all of your posts, then your assertion that Tele has somehow been patronizing and disrespectful toward you is bizarre, given your posts are very patronizing and disrespectful toward Tele to begin with. It is therefore not surprising that admins/mods are not sympathetic to your complaint - it doesn’t hold any weight given the comments you immediately threw at Tele for simply expressing his opinion (the tone of which was conciliatory). I’ve learned through the years that my arguments and perspectives are better heard (and ultimately more persuasive/compelling) when I truly hear others out (even if I don’t agree with them) and respond in a careful and respectful way. Otherwise, any good arguments I have to make get lost. If you truly want to strive for productive discussions on this board, I encourage you to take this to heart. Cheers. Peace, Mike

Agreed. There is a Landmark theatre in my city, among several other theatres (mostly Cineplex) and it is almost literally the only theatre I go to. Their reserved recliner seating is the best. And being able to order my tickets so easily on the Atom app, which also lets me order food ahead of time and the food will be ready when I arrive at the theatre, makes the whole experience the way I want my theatre experience to be. Peace, Mike

With the updated estimate for A Star is Born, it has dropped only 33.6% from its opening weekend (effectively a holiday weekend). Very impressive. Venom's drop is also solid, all things considered. I would have expected a 60+% drop given the circumstances, but it easily bested that. Peace, Mike