Omni

I'd go with 75M. So MU's total is basically the 'discriminator'.

It looks like I won't have to eat any hat

Yes, but after its awesome post-holiday weekend a 10.5M total was like the worst-case scenario.

Frozen might even fail to reach 10.5M admissions -.-

Very nice for Frozen. How many showtimes is it keeping this weekend?

Hopefully it won't get the peanuts it got in Italy.

It happened!!!

Yeah, looks like anything above 200M OS isn't going to be easy to reach.

It's experiencing weekend drops close to 50%, and its last week will likely be spent with very few showtimes. It can still pass the 50M mark, but without any holiday it's not going much above that.

Still hoping that last week's total was underestimated by 3 millions (due to China's 18M yuan Sun not being included). In that case, Disney could fudge the numbers a little and make it pass 1 billion by Sunday, just to increase the press attention after the movie's possible double win at the Oscars.

It's losing quite a few showtimes, maybe another 40%+ drop?

Good revisions for both!

The heck? Frozen has died

Answer to mfantin65's post in the China thread: Locks China 45M SK 75M Japan 40M DOM 395M Global 1.06B Reasonable China 50M SK 80M Japan 60M DOM 401M Global 1.1B Optimistic scenario China 60M SK 90M Japan 100M DOM 410M Global 1.17B Frozen needs to reach the insane level of MU, MI, Nemo and TS3 in Japan to even struggle to your 'lock'...enough said

You've overestimated Frozen too many times, so I'll wait before opening the champagne

Eh, presales and showtimes are slowing down. It has lost its 'momentum'.

Stupid exchange rate!

(sorry about the double post) I didn't think she was so short

It just needs drops in the mid-30s % to get there, which has always been the lowend for Frozen. Or late legs in South Korea are that bad?

Fact is that the first Pixar film that exploded was released in the summer, MI and TI met expectations or fell just below them. Did Over the Hedge have breakout potential written on it? No it didn't, and in fact it didn't break out. But it certainly didn't seem to have anything more than Chicken Little or Bee Movie, and I'd argue that Megamind could have some potential. Yet OTH surpassed all of them. And Lorax? On the other side, there are failures like Turbo, and many of them would have been less ruinous with an early November opening. Because, once again, that slot works if you are satisfied with a honest performance, and it doesn't if you're hoping for a break out. The reasons are in my previous post. I don't think a mid-December slot should be excluded a priori. Princess and the Frog didn't do well, but I doubt it would have done much better in any other time of the year. It was a nostalgic film, not much appealing and not very well received. Looking at Alvin, it's a slot that is worth a try. Though I understand the studio preferring to pick the safer option.

Monsters Inc opened to 62.5 and finished with 255, its multiplier was just a tad above 4x. It's not really "all about quality" (or a matter of how much moviegoers like the movie, which is not the same thing), the actual scenario is very different. We see a general flattening of legs. The range is 3.3/4.0, and there's not much difference from a crappy Free Birds (3.52) and the Incredibles (3.75). Things change a lot when we take March releases, or the mid-June openers, or even the October "lessers", etc etc. Ranges are wider, you have Horton and you have Dragon Trainer. And you have the Madagascar films. And I see my point was somehow missed. You can't pick a film (Free Birds or the Incredibles) and just focus on it. I've never said or thought that a film like Free Birds would have been a probable hit in another slot, though it could have a 70+ potential with a different release date. And The Incredibles came after Toy Story 2, Monsters Inc and Nemo - when the two 'predecessors' opened to 62.5 and 70 respectively, and after a trend on increasing numbers on OW, 70.5 is a tad bitter (in fact, I'm sure it was the first Pixar film to gross below expectations - or maybe the second if you include Bug's Life). Give Up the first weekend of November, and you won't see it getting close to 300M. Frozen three weekends earlier? DM2 would have kept the title. And we can continue. The first slot of November does not make a film disappoint, in fact there have been some successful 'cartoons' opening that weekend. It just limits its potential, reduces the range, lowers the ceiling. Too many weak dailies, and too many upcoming blockbusters overshadowing you - soon, there will be something else to see, you won't be one of the major options on Thanksgiving, and you'll be forgotten by Christmas. Again, that's clearly proven by the fact that no unexpected breakout has ever opened on that weekend, that every huge breakout took place in a different period of the year and that among the more 'modest' CGI releases that managed to do surprisingly well not even one of them opened on that slot.

With 'breakout' I mean a movie that gets an opening weekend around or above expectations and afterwards experience great legs (like 4.5/5x multiplier) thanks to lack of competition and/or strong dailies and/or a couple of holidays. Among the films you listed, only Skyfall broke out, and that is not an animated film, and that didn't open on WIR's weekend. 2004 > The Incredibles opens to a strong though unexciting 70M and then can't even beat Shrek because of a sub-3.8 multiplier. 2005 > Chicken Little: nice 40M opening, followed by weak legs (3.35 multiplier) 2006 > Flushed Away flopped, Santa Clause 3 barely went above a 4x multiplier despite its Christmas theme 2007 > Bee Movie: average opening, meh legs (3.3x) 2008 > Madagascar 2 opened to a respectable 63M but failed to even get a 3x multiplier and closed at 180M 2009 > A Christmas Carol disappointed, opening to a low 30M; then it got strong, though relatively average, legs(4.5x) 2010 > Megamind got an average 46M OW, and couldn't even get to 150M because of weak legs (3.2x) 2011 > - 2012 > Wrech it Ralph opened under 50M, and then got a multiplier lower than 4x despite very strong WOM (many were disappointed by its legs, in fact) 2013 > Free Birds couldn't take advantage of an empty marketplace and opened to 16M before receiving an average 3.5 multiplier for a 55M finish. Conclusion? The first weekend of November is not a strong release date for animated films. History shows it. A look at the top 20 animated films of all time. Only 2 of them opened in the first November slot (Monsters Inc and The Incredibles), and they were inevitable successes, both of them guaranteed to finish above 225M. Again, the first weekend of November nullifies animated breakouts, and Big Hero 6 will have to try to break that rule.

Yeah, probably a finish just above 11M. It needed to take advantage of VD and drop around 15% this weekend to keep the 13M hopes alive. A drop in the low 30's isn't bad, but it's well below Frozen standards.

5 February/Wednesday #'s Monkey 74m 548mDad 52m 423mMacau 27m 148mFRZ 17m new And now, saturday #s: BLS 45M 163M Monkey 25.7m 944m Frozen 21m 174m Macau 19.6m 396m Dad 11.2m 660m I can hardly believe what happened after just 11 days of release. Projections went from low 20's to 50+

It doesn't open in the best weekend of the year, to say an euphemism. I've never liked the first week of November, it seems it nullifies every potential breakout. No holiday until Thanksgiving, overall weak dailies, lots of competition ahead and Christmas coming when the theatre count is below 1000 and weekend number in the low single digit. Monsters Inc barely got a 4x multiplier, and every other animated film went under that. That said, it's not impossible for BH6 to open to 70+ if it's very weel advertised and 'foxy' enough.