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Omni

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Everything posted by Omni

  1. Omni
    And it would be above 90M with Rapunzel's exchange rate...damn it!!! Average Sunday rise seems to be +10% without any holiday on Monday, so +15% should be doable. 70K tomorrow means an overall flat weekend. Even a mere +0.1% would be nice though, just for the record! Btw, anyone knows why last Sunday was so huge? Maybe the film got back many big screens? Or it was just due to the imminent ticket price rise?
  2. Omni
    With SB ending on Monday, next week should be closer to your estimate. Of course, that extra day means that the following week will drop a little more. I'll consider 120M+ to be locked only after seeing the 5th weekend being higher than 6M or at least close to that. Not going to put the cart in front of Sven!
  3. Omni
    Nice! So Frozen should stay in the top 10 till June! I guess they'll release the DVD in early December. It looks like I overestimated it, for once Went with 68M on Friday. With that extra day of Spring Break, it better remain above 8M over the weekend. Another rise would be epic! Maybe 90M could even fall on the post-SB Sunday!!! No no no, I'll wait for post-SB numbers first. I'll (hopefully) concede to you in 8 days. (And I don't prefer blonds xD) Hmm, does it mean we'll get huge weekdays followed by a somehow deflated weekend?
  4. Omni
    Why is Friday such a 'weak' day for BO in Japan? Oh well, at least it's holding quite better than Doraemon and it's still slightly up from last week. Saturday better be above 30K, as there likely won't be another monstrous Sunday jump saving it.
  5. Omni
    Flawless reasoning! Aristotelian syllogisms pale in comparison!
  6. Omni
    I don't know if I would take that bet The Eternal Zero got a multiplier of 24x. How could Frozen possibly be second to a film about kamikaze pilots? 180M is theorically doable then. If everything goes right, 1.2B will be reached. IM3 isn't completely safe. I'd LOVE to see such an epic ending...
  7. Omni
    Okay, I'm not on their wagon, but the good thing about Boxx and mfantin's reasoning is that it's actually reasonable. Or at least, it sounds that way. Except for this, maybe:
  8. Omni
    Yeah, tracking Frozen with Toy Story 3's exchange rate and 3D surcharge would have been the craziest thing ever. 200M in play... I don't think it can possibly keep 75/80% of its 3rd weekend gross on its 5th weekend, especially with SB being over. Everything over 6M would really surprise me.
  9. Omni
    Quite confident in 550M+ OS and 750M+ WW.
  10. Omni
    Can Noah reach 35M?
  11. Omni
    Oh then 12M - 6.5 over the weekdays and 5.5 over the weekend.
  12. Omni
    But 1B IS a fairy tale
  13. Omni
    Haha, I'd probably go with 122M in that case. I still think it's not going to get a very strong multiplier post-Spring Break. To be honest, 105M was not a conservative prediction. I had no idea the SB boost would be so strong. My math gave me a ratio of 6+:4-, meaning a 60/65% addition to its gross as of the last day of SB. I used 66M, so 66*1.65=105/110M. With a projected 75M 24-day gross, I'd get 75*1.625=122M. (That round 3 doesn't count, I was set on the wrong track by Corpse saying something about this week being weaker than the previous one. You'd have won anyway, though, as I'd have guessed 72M ) My hope number would be 160M
  14. Omni
    It can be very successful if things work in its favor. But 1B is just too far away. It needs to get more admissions than Alice in Wonderland to get there, considering it's not having the 3D craze on its side (AIW would gross like 40M less in Japan alone just because of the low 3D share and unfavorable exchange rate). It's also released at the end of May, meaning the World Cup and the strong June competition will weaken its legs. 6,7 or even 800 millions are possible, 1B isn't. BOM's predictions aren't reliable at all. A 160M jump over CF will be quite hard to achieve for HG3, 25% may be generous.
  15. Omni
    Chances of 1B: TF4 95% TH3 90% HG3 25% Godzilla 20% HTTYD2 15% Intersteller 10% TASM2 10% BH6 3% Maleficent 0.1% Maleficent is (practically) not a candidate.
  16. Omni
    Yay, the number of showtimes is slightly increasing this time! Frozen should be close to 68M right before the weekend starts. WIR dropped 20% on this same weekend, so a weekend above or around 7M should be doable. 75M by Sunday is quite likely actually. In February I had the hope that Frozen could open to 9M+ and finish around 130M. I had to try to be as 'reasonable' as possible in order not to be disappointed by a very solid 7.5M OW, after all TF3 was still in reach with that number. Can't believe the 130M+ hope has been revived. Back to reasonable-conservative-armageddon mood: hope is the last to die, but it dies too; Doraemon's Mon+Tue was up 90% from the previous week; the phantom of south korea will visit us next week.
  17. Omni
    My god, Need for Speed! Too bad it's not making money elsewhere.
  18. Omni
    Keanu Reeves must be mine!!! Frozen grossing 15B Yen in Japan would be the perfect way to end a memorable run. If it could just keep weekends around 4/5M by the time Golden Week comes...
  19. Omni
    Woo-hoo!!! Two weekend increases in a row! And apparently 3 Mon-to-Mon increases in a row, too! Come on, Frozen! Another week above 20 millions!
  20. Omni
    8.4M is a pretty good number. That sub-7.5M projection ruined my digestion yesterday. The target is 70M by Sunday - though I'm projecting 68M or so.
  21. Omni
    It's disgusting to see how big the Ice Age junks are overseas. They need to be dethroned, it's at least a matter of respectability. Transformers is a near-lock for 1B. Hobbit has a good chance, HG3 will likely miss it by around 10%. As much as I'd love Maleficent to win the year, I'm sure that a sub-500M gross is much much more likely than a finish close to 1B.
  22. Omni
    Wait...2.7M on Thursday, 3M on Friday, 5.5 on Saturday...is Noah headed to a 16/17M 4-day opening? o.O
  23. Omni
    Thor 2 had awful legs because of Catching Fire opening on the following weekend. While CA2 has Noah (which should be big here), it should hold a tad better. Still, it's not going to get a solid benefit from Easter holidays and therefore it's not going to overtake Thor 2 (unless 10 days of bad weather suddenly come). Probably a finish around 8M euros (Thor 2 made around 8.5M if I'm not mistaken).
  24. Omni
    Its Fri-to-Fri hold isn't much better than Doraemon's, while the hold difference was huge last weekend. Most definitely not a good day, but I still think it will increase again this weekend. Unfortunately, we don't have any past data to make any sort of valid projection or to judge the daily performance. We're just conjecturing.
  25. Omni
    In 14 days, it opened on Friday.
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