Omni

Corpse

Looks like a sub-300M WW total is likely.

You mean Doraemon's first Monday, right? Edit: nevermind, just checked the Japan thread ^^

According to Corpse, this is not a bad release date at all. On the contrary, it may be the best option available: late opening to let the buzz and hype rise, and two holidays coming within 45 days. WIR increased by 4% and Doreamon by 7% last year on the same weekend, thanks to the holiday. So my prediction is 7.5/8.0M. Anything under 7 would be disappointing and probably a sign of frontloadness. Sub-7.5 would give me a 'meh', too. 'Awesome Land' is above 8.5M.

A very strong opening, Frozen surpassed the (reasonable) expectations again! [by 20% or so xD] It needs close to 100M to overtake Transformers' 1.123B gross, or a multiplier between 12x and 13x. Doable, but not easy at all. 8% estimated rise on Sunday. Below MU's 12%. Surprised?

Haha, a 30% rise would be such a nutso!!

Okay, mfantin. Corpse's projection for Frozen's total gross is between 70 and 80. Though I think it's conservative, despite Spring legs being weaker than summer ones according to him. Now, I'd really like to eat my hat this time, as Skyfall is my target. But of corse, if Frozen can't pass the 100M mark (damn you, weak yen!!!), I hope it falls 100K under MU (is it the turning point?).

Frozen likely fell to 3/400K or so. My hat is definitely safe

If it opens to 7M or so, MU's final total will be the target. But we all want more. Honestly, reasonable prediction or not, I won't be happy with anything below 10B yen.

I think a 10x multiplier is locked for Frozen considering how legs are d'habitude its strong point and its has a couple of holidays helping it. Heck, even a 15x isn't out of question. I'd like to point out that people are all excited for a possible 1B 3-day opening, with 0.3B coming from Friday, apparently - but a number like that would mean an OW of 7M, very close to Doraemon's. So the delirium of a hard-boiled pessimist has quickly become a wonderful number. Also, I predict that South Korea will happen again - at some point people will start overprojecting it considerably, throwing numbers well above its actual final gross.

In that case, according to Olive's extrapolation, you are hoping for a 7M opening weekend. So your hopes are for an OW which is just 15% above my (apparently) conservative, pessimistic prediction.

Because it's Frozen!

Remember it has to sell many more tickets than TS3 to reach 110M, as that film also had a 9:1 3D/2D ratio helping it. About China, Frozen stayed about flat on its 2nd weekend, something I refused to accept as likely. Also, you should also mention that after that weekend I was still doubtful about its chances of 50M, while many (including you?) said 50M was locked and 60M probable. I don't like being carried away with the excitement and prefer remaining on the reasonable side, even when it may look a tad conservative from the outside. Japan...well, I gave enough evidence of why Frozen could stop its run with not much more than 50M in its bag. If we were in 2010, I'd predict 100M. I can change my mind if you give me enough data (for example, some concrete signs of its huge hype there), but as of now I think the only argument is "it's Frozen we are talking about, look at how it performed in South Korea". Which isn't enough for me to jump on the 100+ wagon.

No, they just don't count that day into the weekend, just a matter of habit I think. Paradoxically, weekdays are about as strong as weekends there.

The problem with Japan is that it's Frozen's last country, and we have to separate early expectations from late expecations. Rational and reasonable expectations just three months ago put it around 40/50M I think. Then Frozen's legs exploded and South Korea gave us an insane run (more than 10M admissions and 2nd highest grossing imported movie ever). And people went nuts, with predictions above 100M or even above Toy Story 3 and Wind Rises. Even Avatar's and Spirited Away's #'s were suggested (and remember that Avatar made more than 150M only because of a very favorable exchange rate and an insanely high 3D ratio - would have been much closer to 100M otherwise). My prediction fluctuates around 70M, which is more than the grosses of Tangled and WIR combined, and with a worse exchange rate. Talk about pessimism. Exactly. Now, sometimes Frozen has crushed our reasonable guesses, while other times it just met them or went a little below. Take Sweden for example: reasonable predictions put it around 10M and that's where it's going to finish. The 15/20M boutades were just emotional throws. Just like Avatar numbers in South Korea or the domestic gross surpassing Catching Fire's. I just don't like following the excitement and shooting insane numbers and broken records all around just because a film is overperforming. A gross around 7 billion yens in Japan is already an overperformance for an original animated film not created by Miyazaki & Co. It can fall below that, or of course go higher. Also, a reminder: on KJ Corpse, who has been intensively following the japanese box office for many years and has just nailed the opening weekend of Doraemon, predicted 40/50M for Frozen just a month ago or so. So everyone should keep in mind that, while Frozen has a 100+ potential if everything works, it also isn't even locked for 50M and it has many reasons to fall under MU. Haha, so you remember it. I like that people see as a hater someone who's just trying to keep his feet on the ground. No matter if he saw Frozen 3 times, listened to Let it Go about 3000 times, bought the soundtrack, etc etc...

An opening weekend higher than MU's would be CRAZY. Monsters University was a Pixar film and a prequel to one of the 3 most attended foreign animated films of all time. I'm expecting an OW around Doraemon's.

With only a bit more than 2M yuan on weekdays, I think it's safe to say that my hat is safe 300M can still happen, though.

Wait a minute. Does 300M Yuan exactly translate to 50M $? I thought it was more like 48/49M.

Now that's the kind of hold appropriate for Frozen! 40M £ is happening!

People have yet to understand that the singalong re-releases don't have any significant effect on the movie's box office.

Highest grossing original film of all time (Cameron excluded) is one hell of an achievement, in my opinion definitely more relevant than 'highest grossing animated film'. Of course, those two combined are even more amazing.

Yeah, OS is relatively weak. I thought it was a lock for 500M WW, and it looks like it's not going to gross much more than that.

So 283-281.3=1.7M Friday for Frozen? I doubt it made that much.

Oh, I missed your point then. Yes, Christmas is definitely the time of the year where the number of tickets sold experiences an insane jump. Theatres are always packed, even in the afternoon. (Ma figurati, anzi mi pare che il tuo inglese sia buono. E comunque è una lingua che mi ripugna, preferirei di gran lunga scrivere in francese...)

Part of it is due to the weakness of the southern part of the country: people there go to the cinema with a much lower frequency. Moreover, and related to that, there's the TC factor: France has got twice the amount of theatres despite a similar population. Theatres tend to be just in the bigger towns, so many are forced to bear an hour of driving to see a film (for example, seeing Frozen three times required me about 120Kms). We can also add the general lack of cinematographic culture permeating Italians: they implicity see the world of cinema as an 'offshoot of television', and therefore multiple views and strong late legs just don't belong to their world. That's not true. In fact, among the top Hollywood movies, many (most!) are not December releases. 3 Alice In Wonderland € 30.39 M > spring 4 Ice Age 3 € 29.69 M > late August 5 The Da Vinci Code € 28.68 M > late Spring 8 LOTR: The Return of the King € 22.83 M > late January 9 Harry Potter 7 (Part 2) € 22.25 M > summer 10 Madagascar 3 € 21.91 M > late August 12 LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring € 21.43 M > mid-January 13 Madagascar € 21.20 M > late August 15 Shrek 2 € 20.85 M > late August 16 LOTR: The Two Towers € 20.55 M > mid-January 17 Shrek The Third € 20.24 M > late August 19 The Passion Of The Christ € 19.94 M > late winter 20 Pirates of the Caribbean 2 € 19.85 M > September 24 Spider Man 2 € 18.98 M > September 25 Angels & Demons € 18.70 M > late Spring That's 15 out of 25 (15/23 if we exclude the two Cameron movies). And this year's phenomenon Sole a Catinelle was released on the last day of October. So I'd say that * late August is perfect for the DW/Fox animated junks * a December release is good but it doesn't guarantee anything (sometimes, films just cannibalize each other) - tends to work well for Disney films, as long as they look 'traditional' * summer has to be avoided like a plague