RamblinRed

I doubt it drops that little. it has much stronger competition in weekend 2 than Dunkirk did and it's audience scores are lower. I'm expecting a 55-56% drop.

So TLK is headed for 550-600M. FFM getting to 400M is much more unlikely after this weekend. Could be gone completely by next weekend. OUaTiH should open to right around 40M. Not a great preview to OW ratio. With audience scores continuing to fall - now down to 74% on RT and the OW ratio i'm expecting it likely is not going to have a great multiple. Probably sub 3X. IB had a 49% 2nd weekend drop. I'm thinking OUaTiH will more more like 55% and then had Labor Day weekend in weekend 3. Maybe a 100-110M finish. We'll see how much H&S hurts it next weekend. TS4 is really chugging along. Should hit at least 430M. Can it have a higher daily on Tuesday than FFH? By next weekend they could be in a dead heat in terms of dailies. One note. Sunday drops this weekend may be a little higher than last weekend. Looking at last year the avg drop for Sunday was 5% higher than the weekend before - 22.3% vs 17.6%. Next weekend's Sunday drops were higher as well -26.7% vs -22.3%.

FWIW, PBO is reporting that the audience for OUaTiH is 72% male and 52% male between the ages of 22-40.

He's saying the actuals will likely be higher than the weekend estimates.

Not alot of positive to write about this weekend. Good guess on OUaTiH Charlie. Your 41 weekend is probably the ceiling. Depending upon how it does today it could miss 40. That preview to OD ratio is not very strong. Will be interesting to see what its legs are like. it feels like it is playing well in a couple of big cities but may not be playing well in other places. TLK taking a big second weekend fall. So it will finish 11th DOM in the 550-600 range. Probably 9th WW. TS4 is probably the best story this weekend. A 50% increase on Friday and it should do well on the weekend. It is 15.5M up on TS3 now and should be at least 16.5M up by Sunday. Going to go past TS3, likely to go past CM at this point. Would love to see it leg out past Shreck 2. Crawl and Yday are having great runs for movies that weren't really expected to do anything.

Unfortunately based on the Friday number it looks like something close to 40M is going to be the ceiling. I'm betting that it is selling well in a handful of big cities and not doing well alot of other places. It's preview to OD multiplier is not strong. it feels like it may end up being pretty frontloaded.

great preview number. Will be interesting to see how it does over the weekend. It played heavily male and skewed a little older. 79% over 25 and 63% male. Would have liked to have seen better than a 55% definite recommend. But have to think it can at least get into th 40's.

Just realized that Yday is starting to close in on an 4X multiplier for its likely run. Needs about another 8.25M for that. Should probably get 3.5-4M of that from Thur-Sun. Is today the day that FFH passes 1B WW? How many more days before Aladdin crosses 1B? Has to be pretty rare for 2 movies to hit 1B WW the same week.

I think the internet movie base has fallen in love with huge openings. It has sort of forgot a little bit that the opening isn't everything for a movie. i actually enjoy seeing the movies with great legs and great runs. That is why Aladdin and TS4 have been fun to follow this summer. For all the negative reactions its opening weekend generated here on this board, TS4 may leg out to be the 3rd highest grossing animated picture ever. it's sort of an outcome of the social media world we live in today. Everyone has to express their opinion (without actually listening to anyone else), everyone has to have a hot take. I don't have a twitter account and plan to never have one. IMO Twitter has been an absolute negative for our society. it is impossible to have any real conversation in 140 (or now 280) characters. The internet and even twitter are in no way representative of society at large. There have been studies done on this. 85% of twitter traffic is dominated by 10% of twitter users. it also tends to be the 10% most extreme. if you don't shout on twitter you don't generate traffic on it.

#6 will be FFH. Which is a Sony movie - though a Marvel production. I'm also not convinced that F2 will beat TS4, especially if TS4 legs out to 450. There is potential for F2 to be ESB like. A really good movie, that is much darker than the original and does less money (or whose increase is not as large as expected). To me the trailers for F2 to this point have been much darker looking than Frozen. They don't have the same sense of joy. If it is darker i could see it hurting its BO overall.

it will be the 37th largest Wednesday ever. But in terms of Non OD, non Holiday Wednesdays it will be 6th largest behind AE, JW, I2, TDK, FD and just ahead of IW.

Pretty easy to like Disney this year as they are having a year that is going to be standing as an all timer for probably a decade or more. By the end of the year they are likely to have the top 5 DOM movies of the year AE (Marvel), TROS (Lucasfilm), TLK (BV), F2 (WDAS), TS4 (Pixar) - and one of each from its 5 major studios. It will also have #7 and 8 - CM (Marvel), Aladdin (BV). On Tuesday their DOM total for 2019 passed the highest total ever for any other studio for a full year - Uni 2015 - 2.445B (the year they released JW, F7, and Minions). This will be the third year Disney goes over 3B DOM. All the other studios combined have 3 total years where they have gone over 2B DOM. Uni in 2015, WB in 2017 and 2009. This is Disney's 5th straight year over 2B DOM. It will be interesting to see how high Disney can go by Dec 31st. It was at 2.4B DOM on Sunday. The current movies in release should earn at least another 450M -could be more. That gets you to 2.85B before M2 is released. Even if it doesn't do that well Disney should be close or past 3B when F2 comes out. Then you have F2 and TROS at the end of the year. I would think they will do around 800M combined by 12/31. So you could be looking at a full year of 3.8B DOM or more with 7 films over 1B WW. Those 7 films will likely be 10B WW. With the exception of a handful of smaller films they have simply had the films that have been the most interesting to track this year. It hasn't helped that pretty much every WB tent pole film has underperformed this year (Aquaman has their 3rd highest gross for 2019 so far).

Yday just sort of quietly chugging along. Will go over 60M today and probably over 63M on Sunday. Heading to the upper 60's, close to 70. Not bad for a 26M production. it's over 100M WW so it is going to be a nice little profit maker for Uni. TLK has the 7th highest total after 6 days - 260M+, moving ahead of TA. Will fall back behind it though over the weekend. I2 had a pretty big drop on its 1st Thursday so it will be interesting to see the dailies between it and TLK tomorrow. Could be very close. This weekend will give us good insight into whether TLK is more likely to end up in the low 600's or upper 500's and whether FFH still has a chance at 400 or is going to come up a little short. FFH has a 1.865M cushion over HC to make it to 400M, but it starting to fall behind in dailies. TS4 keeps padding its cushion over TS3. Now up to 15.1M. Should be over 395M by Sunday. Passing 400M next Wednesday. Passing CM is getting more realistic by the day. If Disney decides to do a Labor Day expansion this year it will be interesting to see which movie they pick. Both Aladdin and TS4 have strong rationales. If you expanded Aladdin it could probably get to 360M. If you do TS4 you could probably push it over 440 and past Shrek 2 and definitely guarantee it a spot in the Top 20 DOM All-time.

I would definitely expect OUaTiH to over perform in both LA and NY given the subject matter and actors involved. But the rise in tickets is nice to see regardless. How well the movie does overall will be affected by how it plays outside the 2 coasts.

Not convinced it will do 67M more, but I hadn't thought to look at I2 as a comp. It's still running just slightly behind I2 (but as you mentioned it started from a much lower spot). Even 60M more would put it at 441.8 - which would thrill me. It certainly looks like it will pass TS3 now. It is only about 33M off with an almost 15M cushion.

This is the 2nd straight week that Aladdin has jumped 75%+ on Tuesday. TS4 didn't get there this week but it also jumped over 75% last week. I think by next summer this is a good chance we have a family movie that jumps 100% on a Tuesday. TLK was the 8th fastest to 200M yesterday. Tomorrow it will pass TA and become the 7th fastest to 250M and will likely cross over 300M on Friday in day 8, also 7th fastest (one day faster than TA) As far as records, TLK is the 5th movie to have a 30M Tuesday. The third non OD Tuesday over 30 and only the 2nd non OD, non Holiday Tuesday (Endgame is the other one).

Tuesday has become a huge family movie day. it is the most affordable day to take a family to see a movie. When you can go from potentially close to $100 for a family of 4 to see a movie to $25, it makes a huge difference in decision making. Almost every movie I see now is on either Tuesday or Sat/Sun matinee. That's the only way to make going to the movies for a family affordable. And Tuesday is actually a better deal than a Sat/Sun matinee. Over 50% of the movies i've seen this year have been on Tuesday. I mentioned last week that if TLK opened to over 180+ and 50+ on Sunday I thought it could have a 30M Tuesday. Hopefully I am correct when actuals come out. I noticed last week even before opening day that the Tuesday shows were filling up fast. As usual great jumps for all the family movies. TS4's jump gives it around a 15M cushion on TS3. Passing CM DOM is starting to become a real possibility. The next 2 weekends will determine if FFH can get to 400M. HC's late legs were really strong due to limited competition and it basically has to match them to get to 400M. once again posters are conflating good with popular. First off, good is a subjective term and open to interpretation. Second, audiences, not critics, determine whether they like something. I think most audiences want to feel like they got therir money's worth when they go to a movie, and more often then not are looking to feel good coming out of the theater experience. The Disney remakes have mostly delivered that.

They don't and they shouldn't. Whether something is good is inherently subjective. We can only measure what is liked. My family talked about the reviews. They understood them, and didn't really disagree with them - but they ignored them. Their comment was they would have been upset if Disney had made any major changes to the story. I think in the end Disney largely delivered what the audiences wanted, not what the critics wanted. A couple of my family members have seen the movie twice so far. Both times audiences clapped at the end of the movie - that's about as positive a response you can get at a movie.

So TLK needs a 42.5% increase today to get to 30M. I don't think I would call the drop superb. Solid would be a good word. (It's below FFH and TS4 first Monday and most of the Horror movies, but is better than everything else). FFH about 450K behind HC's Monday. TS4 ahead of TS3 again - 9th straight day. Will likely add at least 1M to its buffer today and be close to a 15M cushion after tomorrow.

That is probably slightly aggressive but i'm not expecting a huge drop given just one major release that shouldn't take much from it. I could see something like a -53% drop which would be 90M. I think anything above 90M would all but guarantee 600M+. it was almost 9.1M ahead of I2 after the weekend. Lost about 2M of that yesterday. But it could get that 2M back today.

21.6 would be a 59.1% drop. Higher than I was hoping but hardly out of line for this summer after checking previous movies. Here are the First Monday drops for movies released this summer - I did notice that Horror movies tend to have smaller Monday drops. (I've added Tuesday increases as well. Horror movies in general have smaller Tuesday increases and also larger Monday drops tend to lead to larger Tuesday increases) CP -56.1, +15.4 ACH -57.3, +6.9 FFH - 57.6 (Monday after a Holiday weekend), +39.2 Yday -58, +17.9 TS4 -58.3, +45.4 Anna -59.1, +47.6 JW3 - 60.7 (late Spring release), +13.5 Stuber -61.6, +69.9 SLOP2 -65.4, +55.6 Ma -66.2, +48.3 RM -67.3, +56.6 KOTM -68.3, +43.6 XDP -68.7, +56.1 MIB -72.4, +62.8 Shaft -75m, +70.1 Aladdin's first Monday was a Holiday so you can't use it. It's second Monday was -65.8 (+65.9), third Monday -59.8 (+47.1), fourth Monday - 59.6 (+61.6) If DHD's 21.6 holds, then FFH's First Tuesday gain (39.2) would get TLK to 30M on Tuesday.

Remember that I2's first Monday was Father's Day so it was inflated. Too early to say much about TLK yet. Want to see what it's Tuesday jump is and then the rest of the weekdays. FWIW. If Charlie's number holds then that is that 17th largest Monday ever, but the 5th largest non Holiday Monday ever AE - 36.87 JW - 25.344 IW - 24.74 TDK - 24.49 current #5 non-Holiday TDKR - 19.39

Excellent start for TLK and a great Sunday hold. So it is 9th fastest to 100M, 8th fastest to 150M. Will become the 8th fastest to 200M (behind BP, ahead of I2) today. Will likely be 7th fastest to 250M (behind JW, ahead of TA) on Wed. Should hit 300M on day 8. Big increase for TS4. That gives a 13.5M cushion over TS3. Will be over 390 by next Sunday and might be close to 395.

if it maintains its current edge over TS3 it would pass CM DOM. Not convinced it can do that, but that would be an impressive run.

First off, congrats to AE. Impressive achievement. Second, it was obvious Disney was under-estimating Sunday, but even by their standards that's a really big under-estimate for TLK. if the Friday and Saturday numbers hold and the Sunday from Charlie is accurate than that is only a 13% drop on Sunday. That would be a better hold than TS4's first Sunday. I'll stick with my prediction from last week. if TLK's Sunday is over 50M it will have a 30M+ Tuesday. Was just looking a my fav theater for Tuesday. Pretty much every show from noon to 8 pm is down to just the 1st 2 rows or in some cases just front row seats left. Only the late night and early morning shows have significant seats left. So I guess the most likely range right now would be 550-650. O/U I2 is probably the benchmark right now. I did see it Sunday morning in IMAX with my family. The visuals truly are stunning. You might as well hand the visual effects Oscar to it now. Funny thing for me, we watched some of the original last night and I actually had a hard time watching the original. Going from the super photo-realistic new version to the animated version with the anthropomorphic animals and very vivid color palete was really jarring for me. Even with alot of the exact same dialogue it felt like a totally different movie. I also thought the new Elton John song was better than the new Beyonce song. The audience clapped at the end of the movie in my showing. My wife and son said the same thing happened at their showing on Friday. Godo hold for FFH. I thought it might struggle to get to 20M this weekend. It could definitely leg out to 400M. TS4 is locked for 400M at this point and could end up over TS3. It's up 12.5M on it at this point. Yday is having a great little run. It could end up close to 70M when all is said and done. Just a 24% drop this weekend. Aladdin will get to over 350M. amazing run to follow this summer. One last interesting note. Got 6 previews before the IMAX show. 5 were Disney related. Mulan, M2, F2, TROS and Fox's Ad Astra. The only non Disney preview was Jumanji.