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KP1025

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Everything posted by KP1025

  1. KP1025
    Sub-$500 million DOM would be shocking for TROS. 😱
  2. KP1025
    Last Saturday was Toho discount day, which probably inflated the admissions a bit.
  3. KP1025
    Frozen 2's more muted Friday jump makes sense considering it's more kid-skewing and benefited from the increasing number of schools off this week (hence Thursday being up 8% over last week). With $3.2 million Friday, that's still only about a 26% drop from last Friday. Compared to Jumanji 3's $6.7 million Friday being down 55% from last Friday excluding previews.
  4. KP1025
    Croods 2 and Minions 2 could both cross $100 million too since their previous films actually did very well for a Hollywood animation at the time. On the other hand, I don't think Trolls 2 will do well in China (the first film only grossed $8 million).
  5. KP1025
    I certainly wouldn't have predicted Frozen 2 over Lion King or Detective Pikachu at the beginning of the year. However, Frozen 2 is likely just a special exception due to the influence of the brand. In the future, I think we'll still be seeing most Hollywood animation struggle to get even $50 million in China.
  6. KP1025
    Not that surprising considering how the previous film performed in Japan, but it looks like Jumanji 3 is bombing.
  7. KP1025
    Conservatively, I'm expecting Phantom of the Opera numbers.
  8. KP1025
    It probably wouldn't have a big effect. Toho only accounts for about a quarter of the theater chains in Japan.
  9. KP1025
    Looks like today has 6 new releases, including Jumanji 3. Drop will probably be slightly worse than the past few days.
  10. KP1025
    The Oscars have a bigger boost and can elevate a smaller film to break out status (like the King's Speech or Green Book), but the Golden Globes can help boost an already popular film's late legs (like Bohemian Rhapsody last year).
  11. KP1025
    Yes. For a musical film like Frozen 2, it would probably be almost as good as winning the Best Animated Feature.
  12. KP1025
    What are the chances of Frozen 2 winning a Golden Globe (competition seems tougher this year)? If it wins, that will be another boost to its legs in January.
  13. KP1025
    Probably not that long. The effect is bigger for actual wins, especially Oscars.
  14. KP1025
    Great hold today, -17% from last Tuesday. Possibly related to Golden Globes nominations.
  15. KP1025
    It seems the dates vary by school, but generally winter break is 2 weeks. Last week of December + first week of January.
  16. KP1025
    I think the winter break for students is more like December 27- January 6 if I'm not mistaken. It overlaps with the New Years holidays.
  17. KP1025
    Off-topic, but this is really bad news for Minions 2 next year which had huge Latin America performance.
  18. KP1025
    Yes. Starting last week of December (around Christmas) to first week of January.
  19. KP1025
    Yeah, it's going to beat the first film DOM, OS, and WW. More than I could have expected. I predicted $1.3 billion WW for the contest, which I already considered slightly optimistic on my end (I expected OS to have a decent drop from the first film).
  20. KP1025
    December is also exam season for students in Japan, which could also explain why the weekdays have been a bit low.
  21. KP1025
    Agreed. Kids have 10 days off in late December, which is comparable to the Spring Break in late March. As far as competition, I don't think there is much overlap with TROS. I believe the Star Wars fanbase tends to skew more male and slightly older. I actually thought the new Lupin III animated film released this weekend would be much bigger competition than it turned out to be.
  22. KP1025
    So it managed 3 consecutive weekends above ¥1 billion after all. 👍
  23. KP1025
    Ultron WW still seems possible to me.
  24. KP1025
    Down to 7.7 on Maoyan now. Even the previous film had 8.6, and that was criticized for not having enough action. I wonder what's causing the toxic WOM for the sequel.
  25. KP1025
    I can't say I would be surprised if this goes sub-$200 million DOM and under $500 million WW. Many sequels this year have had truly drastic drops from their predecessor.
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