KP1025

Definitely one of the funniest runs last year. Date Rank Weekend %± LW Theaters Change Avg To Date Weekend Dec 6-8 14 $656,530 - 2,337 - $280 $656,530 1 Dec 13-15 25 $143,735 -78.1% 2,337 - $61 $966,458 2 Dec 20-22 37 $20,000 -86.1% 66 -2,271 $303 $1,083,213 3

If it actually gets that close to $500 million, I can see a dedicated push by Disney to get it over.

I always felt the franchise was going to hit an Ice Age style collapse eventually. The entire Minions slapstick gets old really fast.

Wow, TROS could feasibly gross only half of TFA (both DOM and WW). Terrible audience retention for the finale of a saga.

Thursday DOM: $30.6 million/ Total: $289.8 million Thursday OS: $24.4 million/ Total: $282.3 million

That's incredible. I guess Frozen being Nordic-inspired is helping it resonate there.

Assuming an estimated $17 million this weekend, Ralph 2 legs from here on out gets Frozen 2 to $485 million total.

Jumanji dropping that much today wouldn't be surprising given the insane Eve and Christmas it's had. Would have been a truly stunning weekend if it increased again today. Frozen 2 also seems to be following its predecessor with a smaller Christmas bump followed by a larger Boxing Day bump.

So I thought Frozen 2 being over TROS yesterday may have just been the Ladies Day boost, but it's winning so far today as well (almost 4x last Thursday).

I know. I only listed the biggest openings of 2019.

ROTS opened on a Saturday (as was the norm back then in Japan), so its opening was inflated mainly by including several days' worth of advanced screenings/previews to its weekend gross. As for the 3-Day OW for those 7 films, here is the list: ¥1,939,746,600 ($17.8 million), Frozen II (Disney) ¥1,886,292,700 ($17.0 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) ¥1,707,000,000 ($15.7 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) ¥1,644,809,400 ($15.2 million), Weathering With You (Toho) ¥1,570,469,850 ($14.4 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) ¥1,467,500,000 ($13.3 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) ¥1,396,000,000 ($12.9 million), Aladdin (Disney)

By calendar year, we've had 6 (almost 7 since Endgame fell just short). I think it should be a record. ¥1.616 billion ($14.9 million) / 1,210,000 [878] - Frozen II (Disney)¥1.464 billion ($13.1 million) / 1,144,539 [403] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)¥1.377 billion ($12.7 million) / 1,031,000 [556] - Toy Story 4 (Disney)¥1.185 billion ($11.0 million) / 830,000 [448] - Weathering With You (Toho)¥1.122 billion ($10.3 million) / 766,000 [842] - Aladdin (Disney) ¥1.037 billion ($9.5 million) / 671,000 [962] - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) ¥1 billion ¥962.0 million ($8.7 million) / 628,000 [806] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)

Good explanation. Probably a combination of this and some discount boost factor in select locations.

Frozen 2 does have a decent adult appeal as well, judging from the big increase today from Ladies Day.

So Spies in Disguise is looking to open close to Ferdinand for FSS, but it's a bit hard to compare the two because of the different release dates (Ferdinand didn't get holiday support until a week later). Interestingly, Ferdinand did gross around $20 million over Dec. 25-29 which is right around the forecast for Spies in Disguise's 5-day opening.

Japan was more like a 5 months run (it released in March and made very little after August). It stayed #1 at the box office for 16 consecutive weeks but dropped quickly in the summer once the DVD/Blu-ray was released.

I suppose after the curiosity factor, Cats will fizzle out pretty quickly with that negative WOM.

I assume they wanted to distance it as much as possible from TROS.

Is this a typo? Frozen 2 had the exact same gross on Saturday and Sunday? Dec 20, 2019 3 $3,345,875 +76% 3,665 $913 $377,579,836 29 Dec 21, 2019 3 $4,730,574 +41% 3,665 $1,291 $382,484,314 30 Dec 22, 2019 3 $4,730,574 n/c 3,665 $1,291 $387,214,888 31

Or maybe tiered pricing for different movies (newest blockbusters versus older releases or smaller indie films).

2013 was a very interesting year to follow. Iron Man 3 looked set to win the year DOM and WW after its incredible run but ended up conceding to Catching Fire and Frozen respectively.

Domestically, DM3 dropped from DM2's $368 million to $265 million. That's a drop of 28%, which if applied to Minions ($336 million DOM) would lead to $242 million for the sequel. Or if you want to consider them all related films, DM3 dropped 21% from Minions. Same drop applied to Minions 2 from DM3 would lead to $209 million DOM.

Although Rogue One arguably overperformed for the type of film it was, TROS finishing under that DOM and WW would be a very big disappointment regardless.

Yep, I was merely looking at the WW ranking list and clumsily forgot to add an additional place for TROS. 😅

Whereas TFA and TLJ both easily won the year both DOM and WW, TROS is looking like it will finish at best #2 DOM and #4 WW. Pessimistically, I could see it go as low as #4 DOM and #9 WW.