KP1025

Yeah, it's coming out in December. It seems to be a trend lately in Japan. The latest Pokemon movie (remake of Mewtwo Strikes Back) was also the first to be entirely CGI.

Corpse: Weekend Forecast (08/03-04)01 (01) ¥759,000,000 ($7.1 million), -25%, ¥5,950,000,000 ($55.1 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK3 02 (02) ¥452,000,000 ($4.2 million), -28%, ¥6,800,000,000 ($63.0 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) WK403 (---) ¥425,000,000 ($4.0 million), 0, ¥625,000,000 ($5.8 million), Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Toho-Towa) NEW04 (---) ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥450,000,000 ($4.2 million), Dragon Quest: Your Story (Toho) NEW 05 (03) ¥172,000,000 ($1.6 million), -35%, ¥825,000,000 ($7.7 million), The Great War of Archimedes (Toho) WK2 06 (05) ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), -26%, ¥790,000,000 ($7.5 million), The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa) WK2 07 (06) ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million), -31%, ¥11,400,000,000 ($105.0 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK9 08 (04) ¥123,000,000 ($1.1 million), -50%, ¥590,000,000 ($5.4 million), Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer! (Toei) WK2 09 (07) ¥112,000,000 ($1.0 million), -32%, ¥2,050,000,000 ($18.9 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) WK4 10 (08) ¥x33,000,000 ($310,000), -43%, ¥2,945,000,000 ($27.2 million), Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony) WK6>Weathering With You will repeat once again atop the box-office. Makoto Shinkai's latest likely exceeded the ¥5 billion milestone on Thursday, its 14th-day in release, which is the same amount of time it took Your Name. to reach the mark. Weathering With You has been keeping pace/slightly outpacing (in total) Your Name. so far, but I do believe it'll begin to fall behind beginning this weekend. It's still a bit difficult to project a likely total, but it seems like it is heading somewhere around the ¥15 billion ($140/$150 million) milestone, especially with the Obon Festival holiday period a little over a week away to really bolster its gross. >Toy Story 4 continues to do strong business. I'm a bit concerned what will happen to it next weekend when The Lion King opens. Disney likes to give their latest blockbuster as many screens/showtimes as possible, which usually results in their holdover(s) taking a significant hit. As long as it doesn't take a crippling hit next week (40%+), it'll enter the Obon Festival holiday period on strong footing and cement itself as Pixar's highest grossing film in the market. >Hobbs & Shaw will see a noticeable drop from the main series of films, likely dropping 30/40% compared to The Fate of the Furious. This isn't surprising, it regularly happens with spin-offs. And I will say that if it ends up seeing a decline around 30% versus 40%, I'd consider it pretty good. >Dragon Quest: Your Story is a rare CGI animated film (remember, Japan remains almost exclusively a 2D animated market) based on the very popular Dragon Quest video game series. I don't know too much about this film yet, but I'll do some research on it before the end of the weekend. It's going to do solid business (CGI local films can struggle), and if it comes in around the forecast above, it could wind up with a surprising total since the Obon Festival holiday period is just over a week away. And a side note: There was a lot of rain and thunderstorms during the end of July, so it's possible that the sunny weather (albeit hot) could have a small negative impact on the box-office. Weather rarely affects the box-office in Japan (unless it's particularly awful, i.e. a major typhoon), but since the first few weeks of summer vacation was very rainy, I could see people (family and teens) taking advantage of the sunny weather this weekend.

I don't see it as hogging but rather there being a lack of a better option for theaters. Unless you're a super small theater with limited screens, there's no reason to drop Lion King yet. Besides H&S, every other existing film is pulling smaller numbers this weekend.

Everything took a decent hit from H&S previews. In the Top 10, only TS4 and the Farewell managed to avoid a drop over 10%.

At least for the Mission Impossible films, the audience skews quite old. Bodes well for legs since they tend to spread out their viewings rather than rush to watch on OW.

If I remember correctly, Corpse said opening on a Friday doesn't really affect the actual weekend frame that much. Saturday and Sunday don't appear to be deflated much, if at all.

They used to in the past. The switch to opening on Fridays appears to have happened only in recent years, although I'm not sure what prompted the change.

What? How? I thought for sure single screen theaters would be dropping it for H&S.

Pretty sure many were expecting $1 billion WW for Aladdin a full year back. After Beauty and the Beast grossed $1.26 billion, $1 billion for Aladdin seemed very likely if it was well-received. Something like $400M DOM/$600M OS would have been completely reasonable back then. It was the second most successful Disney Renaissance film after Lion King after all. It wasn't until the first trailer dropped that expectations started dropping significantly.

The yen was even slightly stronger in 2011, and both Harry Potter and Pirates of the Caribbean sequels took big advantage of it. 01. ¥9.67 billion ($125.3 million) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (Warner Bros.)02. ¥8.87 billion ($114.9 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Disney) Really shows what a huge boost Hollywood films got back then. The same amount in yen would be $88.58 million and $81.25 million respectively using the current ER.

I don't think so. I suspect we won't get a clearer picture until at least the final presales data is posted. For trends, I believe MCU is the biggest exception given Japan's general apathy for CBMs. But when a massive global phenomenon like Endgame came along, even Japan managed to step up and perform far above what they usually do for these types of films. Japan was indeed the best market for Harry Potter, but that franchise also had strong performances in the developed European markets (very strong in the UK in particular). When you look at films that have approached or crossed $1 billion OS, Japan has usually been a sizable contributor. The most notable exceptions are the Avengers and Fast and Furious films, where Japan pulled decent but not great numbers (only Endgame barely crossed $50 million).

Maybe Corpse is more optimistic about Lion King's prospects in Japan now. I'm guessing because it is having a very strong OS performance almost everywhere, and Japan usually follows the developed markets quite closely when it comes to trends. He may also just be correcting for severely underestimating Aladdin (he predicted a ¥3-5 billion total for it just a few weeks before release). After Frozen's second weekend, Corpse still wasn't keen to lock a ¥10 billion total yet (it finished with ¥25.48 billion) . Frozen far outperformed any comparable film, so it is understandable why his initial estimates were so conservative compared to its final total.

Corpse: Weekend Actuals (07/27-28)01 (01) ¥1,012,019,500 ($9.3 million), -15%, ¥3,990,295,100 ($36.8 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK2 02 (02) ¥628,233,800 ($5.8 million), -27%, ¥5,508,478,600 ($50.9 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) WK303 (---) ¥265,172,000 ($2.4 million), 0, ¥346,069,800 ($3.2 million), The Great War of Archimedes (Toho) NEW04 (---) ¥245,575,100 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥332,632,900 ($3.1 million), Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer! (Toei) NEW05 (---) ¥223,368,600 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥281,868,200 ($2.6 million), The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa) NEW 06 (03) ¥209,899,600 ($1.9 million), -27%, ¥10,951,739,700 ($100.8 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK8 07 (04) ¥163,923,900 ($1.5 million), -35%, ¥1,706,621,500 ($15.7 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) WK3 08 (05) ¥x57,504,000 ($530,000), -45%, ¥2,847,441,500 ($26.3 million), Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony) WK5 09 (NA) ¥x48,647,000 ($448,000), -NA%, ¥246,818,300 ($2.3 million), Child's Play (Toho-Towa) WK2 10 (08) ¥x47,843,500 ($441,000), -40%, ¥1,051,271,900 ($9.7 million), The Diner (Warner Bros.) WK4>Weathering With You repeats in its sophomore frame, and delivered an incredible second weekend in the process, once again coming in above ¥1 billion. Its two-week total was also just shy of ¥4 billion, giving it the tenth biggest two-week total in history. Its running 3% ahead of Shinkai's previous film, Your Name.. I imagine it'll fall behind this week, but it's still playing very strong and a total north of ¥15 billion ($140-150 million+) is likely. If The Lion King or One Piece Film Stampede fail to dethrone it in two weeks, look for a very, very long run atop the box-office. >Toy Story 4 held well, and continues to outpace every previous Pixar film after three weeks in release. It'll likely keep an impressive lead over its studio predecessors (Finding Nemo and Toy Story 3) for a couple more weeks, though the real test will be week 6 on. The film faces much bigger competition (Lion King and One Piece) than them, and it'll likely receive harsh screen/showtimes cuts on August 9th. However, while I do anticipate it to take a bit of a hit and lose most of its lead, I am predicting it will become Pixar's highest-grossing film. It's on track for around ¥12 billion ($110 million), though could go a little higher with a proper Obon Festival boost. >The Great War of Archimedes managed to outdo its weekend co-openers, and while that's a nice accomplishment, the opening is still a bit on the low-end of expectations. It sold 202,000 admissions across 345 screens over the weekend frame, and reached 266,411 admissions since opening on Friday. The upcoming holiday period will probably allow it to reach the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) milestone, which'll make it a a success, but it could also fall just shy of the mark as well. >Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer outperformed my prediction and debuted in the range of the long-running franchise norm. The 59th theatrical release in the overall franchise sold a solid 194,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 325 screens, and reached 262,173 admissions since opening on Friday. Expect a total just above the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone due to the frontloaded nature of the series. >The Secret Life of Pets 2 ended up bombing after all, or if calling it a "bomb" is too extreme, it really, really, disappointed, opening almost 60% below its predecessor... The film sold 175,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 380 screens, and reached 224,376 admissions since opening on Friday. After this result and The Grinch also disappointing last year, is Illumination's surprising rise to popularity in Japan already coming to an end? >Aladdin is losing screens and showtimes at a quick rate now, but that's not keeping it from continuing to post good holds. This is the film that will be most affected by The Lion King and One Piece on August 9th, and I'm expecting it'll lose up to two-thirds of its screens/showtimes due to losing all of its premium showings. But, it's still going to outgross Alice in Wonderland (¥11.8 billion) without much trouble, and come very close to Beauty and the Beast (¥12.4 billion). At the moment, it's a coin-toss on whether it or Toy Story 4 will be Disney's biggest summer release this year (or can The Lion King enter the equation?). >Spider-Man: Far From Home experienced another big drop, though it outgrossed its predecessor over its fifth weekend of release. It's not holding well enough to sustain enough screens/showtimes to take advantage of the upcoming Obon Festival, unfortunately, but it will be able to exceed the ¥3 billion (~$30 million) milestone.

I don't usually put much stock in hearsay, but here's another unverified early reaction. Some spoilers about ending in tag.

It's not a great drop, but there's definitely plenty of time to recover as most big summer openers experience good late legs after harsh second/third weekend drops. As I mentioned earlier, it's down 56% from last Monday- nearly an identical percentage drop as Incredibles 2 which went on to have a great 3.33x multiplier. I'm not expecting anywhere near the same legs, but something like a 2.9x is still very much in play.

Wouldn't it be equally between the two camps considering it will finish in the $550 million range?

I don't think the Lion King drop is bad considering it had a pretty small drop on Sunday (much better than TS4 and Aladdin). Incredibles 2's second Monday was down 56% from its first Monday, and this will be about on par with that drop.

Very good. Almost flat from last week.

Yep, Spirited Away had 32 weekends in the Top 10. 26 consecutively. Princess Mononoke only opened to ¥715 million, so it probably didn't make that list of highest 3rd weekends. It stayed in theaters for ages like Spirited Away, probably close to a year, so it had an extremely long and leggy run. Unfortunately, Titanic's weekend numbers (OW or otherwise) were seemingly never published in Japan. Corpse has tried searching everywhere to no avail. The only thing that is known is that it spent a consecutive 40 weekends in the Top 10 and 22 consecutive weekends at #1. Certainly the highest multiplier ever in Japan (Corpse estimates it could be as high as 60x).

Sorry, I meant Top 10 on the daily domestic chart.

I wonder what's the highest number of films a single studio has ever had in the Top 10. Last Wednesday and Thursday, Disney had 4 films in the Top 10.

Looks like there was a small expansion for KOTM this weekend. 18 (24) Godzilla: King of the Monsters Warner Bros. $222,539 +32% 238 $935 $109,935,054 9

If that happens, Pixar will own the Top 3 highest animated films domestically. Although Frozen II will probably break that streak later this year.

For South Korea, is that for imported films only? I thought Roaring Currents was still #1 there in admissions.

If counting by gross revenue and not admissions, Mexico has had 3 new #1's in a span of 1.5 years. Coco followed by Infinity War followed by Endgame.