KP1025

Just over Age of Ultron OW.

He did. And later posted about receiving the money to confirm legitimacy of said bet.

This is generally the rule but for some reason, they allowed Bohemian Rhapsody to count as a 2018 film despite making most of its money after December 1. I suspect it was to make the year look better since there was no other 2018 film over ¥10 billion.

Right now, I'd give the advantage to WWY. Aladdin's late legs have taken a hit lately with TS4, WWY, and soon to be TLK cutting into its screen count. High profile domestic releases like WWY tend to keep screens easier and can have extremely long and leggy runs. Your Name was in theaters for almost a year, whereas Disney will push the Aladdin Blu-ray/DVD release in just a few months and end its theatrical run.

Disney always lowballs OS numbers, so this is not a big surprise.

Traditionally they've given it to their Pixar film, but they've never had an even bigger film in July before. The Lion King might still have a high theater count by end of August such that it can't really add much more (maybe just IMAX).

What are people predicting for this? I feel like the image of the FF has been tarnished somewhat by the Fox films, but we've seen with Spider-Man that people can easily be swayed back by a superior looking product. The casting will be critical for this though.

According to the report yesterday, shouldn't the updated Endgame OS number be $1,935,800,000?

I don't think Japan is getting it, at least not anytime soon. Corpse mentioned the summer schedule is way too crowded for Disney to secure screens for Endgame.

With rare exceptions like Zootopia and Coco, animated films in China seem to really struggle to break out even with excellent ratings (look at Toy Story 4 as the latest example). That said, I do expect a decent increase for Frozen II in China. The first film actually had a good multiplier (only opened to $14 million) but couldn't hold onto enough screens to really develop late legs like in South Korea or Japan. It actually had a rare second weekend increase, so it seemed WOM was starting to build. And based off this post (in response to whether Frozen II can top Zootopia), it looks like the film has left a big impact in China just like other parts of East Asia. My personal expectations are $100 million for now. Any higher would require the same level of reception as the original and a good release date.

I'm thinking the same. Maybe around $150 million like Rampage or Meg.

So much for following the rules in the OP.

Detailed review up on Kotaku (some spoilers). https://kotaku.com/weathering-with-you-is-a-good-but-flawed-follow-up-to-1836520213

190,957 as of 5PM update. Pacing slightly behind TS4 first Saturday at same point in time (204,712). Speaking of TS4, looking at roughly 30% drop for the day. Not bad given Weathering with You's big opening.

Ultron finishing #4 WW for the year was completely shocking at the time.

I think Avatar 2 has a chance at $200 million OW if it's really as visually stunning as Cameron has hinted.

The wide range is probably due to the challenge estimating walk-up factor for a movie like this. CBMs are usually very presale heavy, so you can already have a decent picture of final numbers by early afternoon.

The story is based off a well-known figure in Chinese mythology, so I imagine that's why it's resonating so much with audiences. I believe the release date got moved up to July 26.

Here's the trailer.

Wow. I forgot how huge Twilight previews were.

Updated theater counts:

Summer weekdays really do make a difference.

I'm probably missing something, but what's the top left one?

As expected, Lion King breaks the record for widest release.

I like your spirit, but that is far too high a milestone for me. Frozen still holds the animation record at $1.28 billion, and no other animated film besides Incredibles 2 has ever gotten close to it. Considering the phenomenon nature of the first film, I don't think it's possible to see that kind of growth. It would have to meet most of the following conditions to succeed: -Break the November OW record domestically and have great holiday legs (4+ multiplier) -Be as big as Toy Story 4 in Latin America -Break Zootopia's record for animated films in China -Stay flat in Japan. Very tall order considering Japan grossed an insane $250 million for the first film -Modest increase in South Korea, another overperforming market for Frozen -Big increase across the board in Europe and Australia, where Frozen wasn't comparatively big