KP1025

Yes, that would be a very reasonable prediction at this point.

I meant Toy Story 4 is losing 30% of its seats this upcoming weekend because Weathering with You is taking a lot of the screens.

I'm guessing around a similar drop too with Toy Story 4 losing about 30% of its seats this weekend (including the biggest screens at every theater).

Corpse: Weekend Actuals (07/13-14, 15)01 (---) ¥1,377,000,000 ($12.7 million), 0, ¥2,440,073,000 ($22.6 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) NEW02 (---) ¥553,000,000 ($5.1 million), 0, ¥913,873,000 ($8.5 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) NEW 03 (01) ¥491,071,500 ($4.5 million), -30%, ¥9,843,940,700 ($90.7 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK6 04 (02) ¥229,105,400 ($2.1 million), -42%, ¥2,470,646,000 ($22.8 million), Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony) WK3 05 (03) ¥150,896,000 ($1.4 million), -26%, ¥711,753,800 ($6.6 million), The Diner (Warner Bros.) WK2 06 (04) ¥101,095,500 ($936,000), -27%, ¥1,529,700,000 ($14.1 million), The Fable (Toho) WK4 07 (05) ¥x62,610,200 ($580,000), -20%, ¥930,000,000 ($8.7 million), Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku) WK6 08 (06) ¥x57,574,000 ($535,000), -24%, ¥335,388,700 ($3.1 million), Anpanman: Sparkle! Princess Van./Land of Ice Cream (Tokyo Theaters) WK3 09 (08) ¥x41,048,500 ($380,000), -15%, ¥337,151,310 ($3.1 million), The Journalist (Star Sands) WK3 10 (09) ¥x37,030,900 ($343,000), -12%, ¥149,657,800 ($1.4 million), Free! Road to the World - The Dream (Shochiku) WK2 11 (07) ¥x30,671,600 ($284,000), -51%, ¥189,958,000 ($1.7 million), The Documentary of Nogizaka46 - II (Toho Video Division) WK2NOTE: Cumulative Totals Are As Of Monday, July 15th.>Toy Story 4... WOW. The fourth entry in the Pixar franchise sold a remarkable 1,031,000 admissions (first imported animated film to do this) over the weekend frame across 556 screens. Further, it sold an astounding 1,850,000 admissions over its long 4-day Marine Day Holiday Weekend (Fri.-Mon.). The film is going to exceed the ¥10 billion ($90 million+) uber-blockbuster milestone without much effort, and should be on track for a ¥12/13 billion ($110-120 million) total. If you're reading this, you've probably been keeping track in this thread of how monstrous its opening weekend (and first four days in release) really was. It went into the weekend expected to either fall just shy or just barely break some records, but it shattered the records in question and achieved some truly incredible accomplishments. One ridiculous accomplishment that it achieved was the biggest imported opening weekend, animated or live-action, since 2007's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. >Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution, while it had to play a very distant second place and be totally overshadowed, actually performed very, very well. The twenty-second film in the long-running Pokemon film franchise sold 454,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 408 screens. It then went on to sell a very nice 752,531 admissions over its long 4-Day Marine Day Holiday Weekend (Fri.-Mon.). The first CGI film in the series, a remake of the original 1998 film, achieved the biggest opening in the franchise since 2010! That's a very impressive result given the series was at franchise lows a three-five years ago. Expect a finish around ¥3.5 billion ($30-35 million). >Aladdin fell to third place, and while it experienced its "worst" hold to date, it still held very well despite some harsh screen/showtime cuts. It also became the highest grossing film of 2019 over the weekend, and has sold over 6.9 million admissions after six weeks in release (plus Monday). There are a lot of big films still to come, so the screen/showtime cuts will continue but I don't believe it'll see a noticeable hit (say, 40-50%) until maybe August 9th, so it's going to continue to bring in some impressive numbers. It's still on track for a ¥12/13 billion ($110-120 million) total. >Spider-Man: Far From Home continues to follow a fairly frontloaded trajectory as its predecessor. Thankfully, it had a much higher opening to make up for the mediocre holds and will outgross Homecoming's ¥2.8 billion total in a couple weeks. Depending on if it can maintain a sufficient enough screen/showtimes going into August, it could reach around ¥3.5 billion, but it'll probably settle closer to ¥3.2 billion ($30 million) or so.

That math was so bad I have to wonder if it was intentional spin. The timing is really weird too. Did some person just decide, completely unprompted, to check on Detective Pikachu OS numbers in hopes of finding some miracle numbers after it's been in a stall for weeks? Thanks for posting that PSA by the way. Often times with fake news, getting the actual truth out can be difficult after the masses have already seen and accepted the headlines.

The number on Box Office Mojo is the accurate one. If you look at The Numbers, they've mistakenly given Russia a gross of $207 million!

This is beyond embarrassing. Whoever published that needs to redact the article immediately.

Very excited to see what kind of records Weathering with You can achieve with such a wide opening, but it's unfortunate for TS4 losing premium screens after just one week.

Holiday Monday looking enormous for TS4. Already over 250,000 admissions at the usual locations as of 2PM compared to 210,000 yesterday.

I'm thinking around $850-950 million WW for Minions 2. $250 million DOM and around $600-700 million OS. Next July doesn't look like it has many big blockbusters, so I don't think the drop will be too bad overall.

In raw gross, Japan will probably be around 75% or more higher than Mexico's gross. However, I think Mexico's performance is much more impressive relative to the market. TS4 demolished all other animated films and came close to touching Endgame for highest grossing movie of all time in Mexico. In Japan, TS4 will not make the Top 10 (and will probably finish outside the Top 15 as well).

$130 million is definitely possible, but $150 million is probably too high. The multiplier is generally around 9x-11x for a Pixar film released in July. Let's say average 10x. Using Corpse's weekend estimate would give ¥13.25 billion or around $123 million.

Is it true that South Korea is getting the Endgame re-release next month? Someone posted on another site and I just wanted to confirm.

Seeing as Minions didn't even beat DM2 domestically despite the franchise being at the peak of popularity, I think sub-$300M is definitely happening. Beating DM3 should be the target, and even that I don't think will happen given the domestic downward trend.

I tried searching, but I don't think Corpse ever posted the admission numbers for the older films (only if they passed 5 million admissions).

For future reference, here is the history of Walt Disney Animation Studio feature films in Japan (every film above ¥1 billion). Walt Disney Animation Studio's Top Grossing Films (1980-) 01. ¥25.48 billion ($249.6 million)- Frozen (2014) 02. ¥9.18 billion ($77.7 million) - Big Hero 6 (2014) 03. ¥7.63 billion ($70.6 million) - Zootopia (2016) 04. ¥5.16 billion ($46.1 million) - Moana (2017) 05. ¥4.90 billion ($40.2 million) - Dinosaur (2000) 06. ¥4.25 billion ($37.2 million) - Aladdin (1993) 07. ¥3.80 billion ($34.6 million) - Ralph Breaks the Internet (2018) 08. ¥3.20 billion ($31.7 million) - The Lion King (1994) 09. ¥3.00 billion ($32.3 million) - Wreck-It Ralph (2013) 10. ¥2.91 billion ($24.5 million) - Lilo & Stitch (2003) 11. ¥2.80 billion ($26.2 million) - Tarzan (2000) 12. ¥2.68 billion ($23.1 million) - Chicken Little (2006) 13. ¥2.60 billion ($20.2 million) - Beauty and the Beast (1992) 14. ¥2.56 billion ($32.1 million) - Tangled (2011) 15. ¥2.30 billion ($19.3 million) - Peter Pan 2: Return to Neverland (2003) 16. ¥1.95 billion ($18.4 million) - The Hunchback of Notre Dame (1996) 17. ¥1.65 billion ($17.4 million) - Bolt (2009) 18. ¥1.60 billion ($14.7 million) - Brother Bear (2004) 19. ¥1.28 billion ($10.6 million) - Atlantis: The Lost Empire (2002) 20. ¥1.20 billion ($8.9 million) - The Little Mermaid (1991) 21. ¥1.10 billion ($9.3 million) - Hercules (1997) ¥1 billion+

Regarding Lion King, I think its performance in South Korea will be a good indicator of a potential breakout in Japan. These markets align quite closely for these type of musical films.

I was not expecting Japan to join in with the phenomenal run of Mexico. If TS4 has great legs in Japan, it could even pass the USD gross of TS3 ($126.7 million). Something I thought almost impossible just few days before.

It skews extremely young like Doraemon. But unlike that popular franchise, Yo-Kai Watch simply failed to bring in new viewers. So all those kids that watched the first film outgrew it and didn't come back for the rest of the series.

Corpse: Biggest Modern Opening Weekends (2008-) [REVENUE]Modern Rank (All-Time Rank)01 (09) ¥1,628,893,000 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (Dec., 2014) 02 (16) ¥1,463,827,700 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019) 03 (18) ¥1,372,054,050 - One Piece Film Z (Dec., 2012) 04 (20) ¥1,325,000,000 - Toy Story 4 (July, 2019) *Estimate* 04 (22) ¥1,316,539,200 - Alice in Wonderland (Apr., 2010) 05 (23) ¥1,301,851,375 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (July, 2011) 06 (24) ¥1,295,834,500 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018) 07 (25) ¥1,286,928,000 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017) 08 (26) ¥1,245,023,900 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015) 09 (27) ¥1,225,913,932 - Rookies (May, 2009) 10 (28) ¥1,216,654,000 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018) 11 (29) ¥1,209,158,900 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016) 12 (30) ¥1,205,116,126 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (May, 2011) 13 (32) ¥1,155,771,000 - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016) 14 (34) ¥1,133,513,323 - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov., 2012) 15 (35) ¥1,125,800,000 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017) 16 (36) ¥1,122,000,000 - Aladdin (June, 2019) 17 (37) ¥1,096,150,000 - Code Blue (July, 2018) 18 (38) ¥1,065,362,800 - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017) 19 (39) ¥1,057,808,800 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015) 20 (40) ¥1,048,271,900 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017) 21 (41) ¥1,038,295,232 - One Piece Film Strong World (Dec., 2009) 22 (42) ¥1,034,459,534 - Ponyo (July, 2008) 23 (44) ¥1,005,428,333 - Boys Over Flowers: Final (June, 2008)Biggest Modern Opening Weekends (2008-) [ADMISSIONS]Modern Rank (All-Time Rank)01 (02) 1,484,916 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (Dec., 2014) 02 (13) 1,144,539 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019) 03 (14) 1,140,081 - One Piece Film Z (Dec., 2012) 04 (19) 1,012,000 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)05 (20) 1,000,000 - Toy Story 4 (July, 2019) *Estimate* 06 (21) 987,568 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017) 07 (22) 987,387 - Rookies (May, 2009) 08 (24) 974,577 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015) 09 (25) 933,781 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016) 10 (29) 880,697 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (July, 2011) 11 (30) 833,190 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018) 12 (31) 828,149 - Alice in Wonderland (Apr., 2010) 13 (32) 820,830 - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016) 14 (33) 819,738 - One Piece Film Strong World (Dec., 2009) 15 (34) 812,557 - Ponyo (July, 2008) 16 (35) 810,918 - Code Blue (July, 2018) 17 (36) 805,350 - Boys Over Flowers: Final (June, 2008) 18 (37) 805,297 - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (July, 2009) 19 (38) 800,258 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015) 20 (39) 773,184 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (May, 2011) 21 (40) 771,764 - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov., 2012) 22 (41) 771,516 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017) 23 (42) 766,633 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 (Nov., 2010) 24 (43) 766,000 - Aladdin (June, 2019) 25 (45) 747,451 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013) 26 (47) 737,467 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017) 27 (48) 729,114 - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017) 28 (50) 717,958 - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (Sept., 2014) 29 (51) 716,629 - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018) 30 (53) 715,727 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015) 31 (54) 707,339 - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (July, 2010)*Modern = Post-Previews/Early Showings Era.

It still has some OS gas left (Japan is yet to open), but it's looking at a slightly worse drop than Ice Age 5 from Ice Age 4.

Looking Up is more of an emotional drama telling the story of how a father encouraged his son to pursue his dreams. I don't think there's too much audience overlap, as the Lion King seems more appealing to children and families.

Which is why I was baffled at some of the Detective Pikachu predictions. Saying $100+ million in Japan was locked despite none of the Pokemon films having come close to that. The novelty of live-action Pokemon did not help in the end, and it performed on par with all the recent animated Pokemon films.

With current exchange rates, TFA would adjust to $108 million. Not saying TROS will come anywhere close to that, but I think a rise from TLJ is certainly possible.

Aladdin was the biggest, Lion King the second biggest among the Renaissance films. Beauty and the Beast and the Little Mermaid were too low that they didn't even make Top 100 Grossing animated films in Japan.