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Everything posted by tokila
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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
tokila replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
that is sad. A movie with no future . Or a possible new franchise in the country. I have never cared for Titanic, but I respect its success. I just don't get routing against a movie. If you are Chinese SW getting big would mean more investment in your country from Disney. Seems short sighted to want it to fail. -
China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
tokila replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
yet they loved F7. I guess explosions and car chases are universally enjoyed, while different types of drama and dialoge dont translate well. But ya. The main reason F7 had a big bump from 6 in the US was whole dead actor thing. People tend to run out an see a movie that has a tragic event associated with it, Paul Walker's death in this case, same thing happened with TDK. Movie had a stupid plot and poor acting(I despise Michelle Rodriguez's character), but again. More boom boom boom. -
China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
tokila replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
ya its a pretty dumb comment considering the main issue with China is few have actually even seen the OT. That should be the least of Disney's worries there is whether or not people will feel it is too similar to ANH. lol. And from what I have read the SW fans they do have there tend to prefer the PT. -
TFA is not behaving like any movie ever. People keep trying to find examples of other movies to compare it to. Each time it has failed. One week it looked like Avatar on weekdays, causing everyone to way over predict the weekend. Then people tried ROTK it worked for one week then failed. Now people are looking at the above 50% drop weekend 4 and are using Hobbit 3. Even though nothing it has done so far is anything like what the Hobbit 3 did. Applying specific examples to TFA will only lead to failure. After last week's monday number I stated it was aiming for a 41-43 mil weekend. Several people basically said I was an idiot and did not even know what BOM was (implying that looking there would show me how other movies had performed). Some people just want to make sense of TFA and feel like they have some idea where its heading so they use historical trendlines. (which work with many other movies) Good luck finding a movie that pulled a 40m+ weekend while number 1 all time. We are in uncharted territory. Could it continue dropping hard because he already burnt through 812 million of demand? Very possible Could it find a sweet spot where it see lower week over week drops ones it gets down to a level where it can sustain that? Also very possible
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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
tokila replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
There is a difference between a stand alone film and a film that stands on its own. I recall JJ saying he believe the film stands well on its own. I think his right. Obviously the film is better if you have seen the OT, and EP8 and EP9 will add to this film by flushing out the story. But, you can watch TFA without any previous knowledge and enjoy it. You just wont enjoy it as much. -
yep. Ride Along 2 would have to be epically bad(sub 20% RT) to not get number 1 next weekend. This does not bother me at all. I think 95% of us predicted from the beginning that RA2 would be the movie to knock off TFA from number 1. I wont see RA2 in theaters, but if it decent I will definitely watch it on the playstation network in a few months. I enjoyed the 1st one, did not think it was great, but definitely gave me a few hard laughs. (The Call of Duty parody was great)
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yes, you can find example where the jumps % wise are comparable. The problem with trying to use historical examples with TFA is that is none. With Hobbit 3 you are comparing a 4 mil Satuday with a potential 19 mil. Rotk with a 6.5 versus a 19, and TTT a 6.6 versus a 19m. Obviously the biggest difference is the expended demand. TFA burnt off 780 mil+ of demand before weekend 4. The highest of your examples(ROTK) was just hitting 300 mil prior to 4th weekend. In order to properly predict TFA we should avoid direct comparisons with historical trends. TFA is making its own trend. Patterns I have seen so far 1. Weekdays are very very strong. 2. Even on 2 specific days that evenings are weak TFA well over performed (CMas Eve and NY Eve) 3. Weekends increases over weekdays grosses under performs (every weekend people have over estimated TFA) 4. Every weekday people have under estimated TFA My deduction. TFA is playing like a crazy hybid of a summer blockbuster and a holiday family movie. It had the massive opening weekend of a blockbuster, and daily holds of a family holiday movie (18DEC-3JAN). Moving into January it has changed its form. It no longer can maintain weekday holds of a summer movie, but still has a stronger weekday draw than a typical out of season movie on weekdays. Because its a family film it really kills it when people are off all day (the entire holiday season, and now Sat, maybe sun). The problem people have predicting it is they base their holds of a typical January for a holiday movie. The problem with that is Holiday movies typically do not open like a summer blockbuster. All said we are right at 800million today. Literally uncharted territory, especially for a movie that is likely pulling a 40 million weekend.
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I have been looking through some other movies' sat bumps and if this 19m holds it will be one of the best I have seen. I am sure there are better, but a 77% increase is crazy good. Its almost like a kids movie hold (matinee heavy). Its not totally you look at Frozen in January and it was having 100% increase Sat over Fri. But its somewhere in between frozen and a typical blockbuster.
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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
tokila replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
biggest saturday ever is a pretty big deal. Its not like they are grasping for straws. TFA does not have biggest saturday ever in US for instance (yes day 2 versus day 1, but still). -
China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
tokila replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
Disney's goal with TFA was to re interest people who already liked Star Wars and gain as many new fans as possible. If China goes on to do 150-200 million that is a huge increase in SW expose in China. I would not be surprised if China is the only market in the world where Rogue One does better than TFA, -
I have said many times this week that TFA does not get the weekend boost we all project (using other movies NONE of which are good comparisons to TFA). Yet people insisted on using ROTK or Avatar Thu-Fri bumps in their projects. 40mil for 4th weekend is amazing. Just leave it at that. Yes it will not beat Avatar this weekend, but its going to be 50 million of ahead of its lifetime gross so who gives a F.
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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
tokila replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
11-EST+1 DAY I live in Hawaii so it is simply 6 hours behind 1 day ahead for me.