tokila

well now don't I feel silly.

Avatar made 109 million USD is Spain. Who is sheep? All people are sheep, its just sometimes we follow different shepherds.

what was the total OS wed and thur?

" With the exception of the Batman franchise, most would-be modern mega-franchises do a lot more of their business overseas than they do in America. What that means is that in the end one might draw the conclusion that The Force Awakens is merely a normal top-tier franchise blockbuster that just over-performed in America due to the fact that Star Wars has always been something of an American folktale. But that’s a conversation for another day. " lol. Its going to earn 1.2-1.3 bil over seas and its "just normal top tier franchise that over performed in America" what will he come up with next. I am hoping for "It did not pass Avatar WW so TFA's DOM records are irrelevant" what a hack.

What are we thinking? Lows 7s, high 6s at worst? If the number was amazing (like flat or a very small drop) I would think we would have had a number by now. I know this is a penis innuendo but in lieu of an update I am going to take this as it. So its going to be down a little. "well after it maintained constant for 48 hrs , needs to curve down a little after the cold from the north get over the hump before rising again on weekend" -Rth

ya I remember him. He was permabanned?

So do we think that the announcement could have a positive announcement on today's numbers? Maybe we can stay flatish (less than 5% drop?)

Um, no. Prior to release it was not a sure thing. Many people were predicting 500s, some were hoping it could at least take number 1 for 2015. People obviously did not rule out beating Avatar but only a few bullish predictors went that way. WW is nice and all for Avatar. Bland love stories and main characters that are essentially non-racial have universal appeal. But Avatar is not a part of the cultural fabric of anywhere. SW is a part of the cultural fabric of the english speaking world.

That would have been a really bold prediction on like DEC 16th.

Ya, I just cant rule Cameron out. And yes most of these record setters are out of no where (that is part of the reason, they break out so much is because there were no expectations). I feel this sets apart TFA from all other previous number ones since GWTW. ANH, ET, Titanic, Avatar, hell even Jaws came out of no where surprised people and reaped the benefits. TFA is the 1st since gone with the wind that was supposed to be massive huge and exceeded (GWTW was super hyped in its own 1930s kinda way).

ESPN is a separate issue from the other Disney networks IMO. Sports fans have been frustrated with their coverage style for years. Now viable competitors exist and people can finally stop watching their crap programming. (Their live broadcast are great, its all the other stuff). Look, I am all for Kaitlyn Jenner doing her thing, but ESPN failed to realize the average NFL fan sitting their watching the ESPYs with a case of Budweiser were not going to be impressed. They simply lost contact with their core audience, and yes tech has hurt some too.

I like this method. An alternative method is my preference. 1 bil - JW = 348 million. TFA currently has a 245 mil lead on JW. TFA needs to find a way to gain another 103 million on JW before it leaves theaters. The reason I prefer this method is because once TFA passes it, it is an automatic lock. Where as the Avatar+30% method will be tricky because Avatar made 53 million after march 1st. I have a hard time seeing TFA making any meaningful amount after that point (maybe 5-10 mil more).

well, I guess you never know for sure, I mean when SW broke the record in 77 I am sure people thought that would stand for a very very long time. But the late 70s brought very high inflation in 5-6 year ET took it out. So lets assume stable inflation. Avatar broke Titanic by 160 million, 900 million would be a slightly less number, however if not for Star Wars Avatar's record would have stood for probably at least 5-6 years. The Avengers which wa the culmination of a half a decade of highly popular movies came 140 million short. JW which was a nostalgic beast off one of the most popular movies ever still came 110 million short. I cant think of any announced movie over next few years that could have beaten Avatar (you never know I guess). So I think that TFA beat Avatar well before "inflation caught up with it" like Avatar did to Titanic. If you think about it, it was 2012 before a non-Cameron film finally made over 600 mil. Another thing that makes me think that movies are not ready to regularly even target 600m (unless they are a very special case like TA and JW) is because we still only have one film in the 500 range. Once 500 becomes a multiple times a year deal we will see 1 or 2 times a year a 600mil. We only have 11 films in the 400 mil range that did not take multiple releases to get there. So 400 is still a super hard barrier, let alone 500. 600 still takes a perfect storm type deal (Cameron and SW operate by a different set of rules) To me 900 million should hold for over 10 years. 1 billion could last for 15. All this assuming we maintain the low inflation we have seen the past decade+. (not the 10% per year crap of the late 70s). Onlything I wont rule out is James Cameron. Even though I think he will see some sequel decline, I never doubt the man to turn expectations on their heads. If Avatar 2 does not do it. Nothing will for at least 10 years. And that is just simply for 900 million. Or ET 2 (dejavu)

yep. We came up with the 1 billion goal post to keep up the suspense with each BO daily we get. After that 40 million 1st monday Avatar was a foregone conclusion and even the doubter put it in the lock column after is actually went up 1st tuesday to 1st wednesday.

Your right, what I mean was percent of total gross like they show on BOM page. which is done by 247/758 saying same thing a different way. At 33.3% OW gross is = to 3X multiplier

Now at a 3.26 OW multiplier. Yay.

this drop was very important. It shows it has reach a stabilization point quickly. Also means we have a pretty good shot at 30mil midweek. JW only had 27.5 in the summer same week.

very nice hold. 1.5 mil or so til number 1 alltime! Gooood. Goooooood.

No its a great hold, but also most movies are not shooting for 1 billion DOM. So there is really no comparison. I look at BOM a good bit. There is not one movie that is a good comparison on there. TFA is unique. People should stop pretending like you can try to apply Hobbit, Avatar, LOTR, or any other freaking movie to it, they wont work. Like I said its relative. 8 mil is great in the grand scheme of things it is .5mil above what JW did its 3rd Monday and it had the summer advantage. TFA is 240 mil above JW right now at same point in its run, TFA needs to add 110 million above what JW did to get 1 billion. Its mediocre at best in relationship to whether or not TFA can reach 1 billion DOM. Either way TFA has been having an amazing run. It could die out starting yesterday like a young adult novel adaption and it would not change this fact.

My concern is we have not seen if this is the leveling off point. We had a pretty bad Sunday hold followed by a very mediocre Monday. I think 1 billion is dead. An 8 mill hold puts us on course for a 38-40 mil weekend or a 55-58% drop. Also note, this is the Day that TFA and Avatar are equal. From here on out Avatar will be beating TFA each and everyday until the end of the run. TFA needs to level off like tomorrow to keep 1 bil a possibility. We see another 15%-20% drop tomorrow 1 bil is done and we need to start calculating if it can even reach 950mil (in a good scenario).

ya its okay, i guess. 63% drop on an already weak Sunday though. This needs to find a stable drop zone soon or I will start sweating 900mil. We are now equal to avatar (Avatar did 8 mil on the same day). After this point we should start bleeding some of the 390 mil lead over Avatar. Once that number gets to 240 1 bil is dead as a doornail. Right now I would will just be happy when it becomes the 1st movie to cross 900 million, and then makes some cash on top of that (maybe as high as 930-50 tops).

It possible that people all going back to work help. I know its a simple anecdote, but in my office today about 10 of us were talking about TFA. 6 of us had seen 4 not. The 4 that had said they were going to see basically because everyone was saying it was great(the 6 of us all saying it was great convinced them). One of them had never seen SW and his wife did not want to go, but he was thinking about going. Of the 6 who had seen it only 2 of us had multiple viewings. 2 of the others said they would probably check it out again.

and what I said was correct. When we get some real numbers we will get a thread. Did not say when that could be. Unless they will start a thread prior to numbers now.

usually thread is created when Rth gives a number, at the latest when DL gives a number. Key is when we have some sort of an estimate someone starts the thread.

what is crazy is most of those movies on the list release on a Wed or Thursday, several did this in conjuction with a holiday on the following monday.