tokila

Someone one needs to edit the Emperor meme. Good Good Disney, let the fudge flow through you ... Fudge is the path to the box office dark side.

To add, at 23mil on the dot it would an 18 percent drop or so. Avatar was 20%. Seems almost too good to be true. Number is very late, I think it holds pretty close.

awsome. YES! and completely predictable that we would end up 200k less than JW.... lol. Disney. You have been good about the fudge..... now is the time. Take the "calendar year" bragging rights.

gonna go with 21-22 for NY Eve.

scoreboard.

day of the week can matter. if NY eve is Friday it should have a slight increase over previous day.

is that US or AUS dollar?

Well for one TFA has a traditionally strong holiday weekend its 3rd weekend that should blunt the fall some. Also at least in JW's case weekend 2 had Fathers day (which was a really strong sunday for it, flat from saturday), and weekend 4 was sort of an in between weekend. Also at what point do we stop looking at JW and TA for any guidance on how TFA trends. TFA has not been behaving like them at all...

most of his stuff is good. And to be fair its hard to top Gladiator, that film was amazing. I will say Robin Hood was boring as hell. The Martian was a big comeback for him box office wise.

Point break will be DOA. WoM should have reached UK by then.... The only 2 competitors I see are Zoolander and Deadpool. I guess it just depends on who is in the mood for action and who for comedy.

thanks super informative.

true, even I have this weekend at 37-41-30 which would have sunday lower than monday. Thats 28% drop weekend. 3X avatar drop.

another way to look at it is TFA has consistently been dropping 17-22% week over week (if you take out previews Cmas only fell 20%). The only day it was worse than this Saturday the 27th(28%, we will never know how much weather affected that). So even if it accelerates this weekend to 28% falls we are still looking at 108 mil if it maintains its current decline rate this weekend we would be looking at 115mil(I even left a 28% sunday drop in the equation).

depends how you look at. Going by dailies and %s ya about 110. Going by weekend drops.... it would be like 130 mil.... I have it at 108. Just enough to beat the old 2nd weekend record on the 3rd weekend. which is exactly like something TFA would do... lol.

too low. They are essentially predicting TFA to be Monday through Wed+ 8 mil or so. That would have to be like a 34-40-24 weekend. Not seeing sunday lower than this monday. Lets make Sunday = to monday (last week it was +3 despite a massive storm), lets give friday (a holiday) a measly 23% boost over Tuesday(worse than last weeks boost). So 37-44-30.... Thats not overly generous and it gets us to 111 million. (and it passes Avatar likely on Sunday)

I think mine makes so much more sense. The big thing to remember. After ANH in 1977 during Carter's presidency the US went through several years of double digit inflation. It seems that Star Wars and prior me and BOM line up pretty close. Its after that where I think BOMs method is flawed. I will add the reason my method actually has Avatar higher than BOM is because inflation has outpaced ticket prices and not vice versa like it had the 25+ years prior. Edit 3- Also note every movie above Titanic was released before the VCR was in every household. Its spectacular that Titanic was able to even get close. Its seems pretty clear that the VCR was the single biggest change to the movie landscape, digital may be taking another bit out of the Box office.

ya disney finally let TFA squeeze by a number without falling a fraction short. Titanic's Original Run- $600,788,188 TFA- $600,949,526

Going to keep increasing. Earliest I see it lining up is mid next week, should still gain a little next week total. It wont really start cutting into the gap much until after MLK. But at that point we should be past 900 mil(or very close to it).

yes. just take total gross times inflation (not ticket price inflation). Leave ticket sales out of the equation. Just to many variables with ticket sales to properly valuate them in time. I guess I am saying we should go with the real dollar value of a movie (based on current value of dollar in relation to where it was). Then only real issue in comparing is the relative size of the industry (compared to its relative size in the past) this is also driven by population and accessibility this is mainly is offset by higher competition.

Yes but Titanic topped a movie that had 15 years of inflation against it. Where as TFA is blowing past a movie with 6 years of inflation against it. If TFA had inflation of 2024 and assuming no one else could pass Avatar it would beat Avatar by more than Titanic beat ET. That aside I find adjusting based on ticket price to be f-ing stupid. Here is why. Movie ticket prices have outpaced inflation since 1997(and prior). Meaning that declining ticket sales can be attributed the fact(among other factors) that a movie ticket is relatively more expensive in 2015 than it was in 1997. If you were to take Ticket prices in 1997 and then raise the price in 2015 to match inflation across the board, tickets would be cheaper, and with cheaper tickets you sell more. Also by doing this you would lower the "adjusted" totals. Basically my main point is adjusting simply based on the current price of tickets X tickets sold is not fair to a modern movie which sell a ticket a relatively higher price. You are giving the older movies the benefit they had in being relatively cheaper when they were released(thus higher volumes) with the $ advantage of the higher premiums now.

I will add my model has been consistently low except for Sunday the 27th. (I had it at 47, and it came in at 43.5)

I feel my model could be off, but based on tomorrow remaining flat, a 23% drop NE eve, and a 73% increase for NY Day (which is a friday) I have the weekend at 110-115 which is like a 22-25% drop. Sounds to go to be true, but the increase based on the dailies say this. edit. I will add this, if you take out Dec 17 previews, last week was only a 22% drop. And NY weekend is typically better for box office.

Lol. Rth called this 7+ hours ago..... He said. 28.5-29.6, dropped the mic and went to bed. All praise Rth.

we can argue about using adjusted ticket prices and how they relate era to era until we are blue in the face, but there is one thing we can agree. Dec 17-Jan 3 will be the greatest 17 days by any movie in the history of the box office. Each Day in that frame looks like and opening weekend number from a blockbuster caliber movie. Titanic had the greatest 5 month run. Star Wars had the greatest 2 year run. GWTW had the greatest popularity over a decade, but for the modern box office what TFA is doing is the equivalent.