Porthos

Because people are pissed the fuck off about 2023. That's really it. Sure some are pointing to the lack of a succession plan for Iger (this was CalPERS's fig leaf, ftr). But in the end, they have memories about how dominant Disney was in 2019 and are upset that Disney isn't in a similar place right now. Year-to-year gains don't matter as much when one is competing with all time highs of the somewhat recent past. something something Knock Off The Subtext Porthos something something

Cutting out a lot of the above, but... the main problem with the thesis here is... "they". Who are the "they"? Paul Feig, who wanted to make GB2016? The suits who greenlit it? Producers along the line? Like the central problem to all of this is, the folks who were most integral in the success of the OG GB didn't really want to make a third GB/agree how to make it. And then the person who did want to make a new one and convinced Sony to shell out the money for it wasn't interested in the above scenario. In the end, nearly all of the "problems" with the GB franchise can be laid at the feet of the folks involved in the first not really wanting to do more. That really is a near unsurmountable problem. The rest of the problems can be laid at the feet of folks who just can not let Culture War Catnip go by untouched. (I'd note that it's been nearly EIGHT YEARS since GB2016 and folks are still fighting over it, but then again SW fandom is still feuding about the special editions/prequels so just this is kinda nothing in the grand scheme of things) You're begging me to post the "Tell 'im Wash" clip, aren't you? 😉 I mean, hell, you're not even asking for a "good" script but a "great" one. I get what you're saying, but at the same time projects tend to wind up in development hell for a reason and it's far easier said than done to escape it. Barbie and Andor have proven you can escape development hell. A whole long list of projects also show that time is only one part of the equation. Plus it's not exactly like GBFE (or GBA) could count on 25 years worth of tinkered scripts.

"Porthos beat me to it."

Oh, I see you noted as well that CalPERS backed Peltz. ==== Jokes about CalPERS fiscal intelligence aside, the very fact that some of the CalPERS of the financial world are lining up behind Peltz should give folks pause about how much of a slam dunk this is gonna be. Might be close, might not. But I do think the Trades are right when they note that right now it looks closer than it did even a couple of weeks ago.

Oh, I think it is very related to the above observation. It's just in this case "people hating on Alex Garland" for not engaging in Culture War Churn and therefore concluding that his movie will be milquetoast/uncontroversial/timid. Personally, as I said, I would wait to see just what the movie delivers before concluding it "has nothing to say" or indeed isn't any offering any commentary on Modern Society/Politics, implicit or otherwise.

But I repeat myself. (or to put it another way, the issue folks have isn't with Civil War per se, it's with Other People Holding Bad Wrong Opinions Who Must Be Fought On the Intrawebs)

Now this is an interesting addition to all the variables, isn't it? Toyed with alluding to it in my post but decided against it. But on the other hand it is interesting to note as well that some of the voices on social media that were... let's say eager to jump on the discourse surrounding Joker back in 2019 are now posting Joker themed gifs themselves. Another way to put it is that while Joker 2 once again becoming a social media socioeconomic football is all too real of a possibility, if only because some folks on social media have the impulse control of a kitten hopped up on catnip laced with speed, the memeification of the Arthur Fleck Joker can't be denied. The power walk through the hallway post-donning makeup and the dancing on the steps are two large viral moments but so too is the crying while putting on the makeup in the first place. That is to say, the Arthur Fleck Joker has definitely had a lasting cultural impact, and I don't particularly think there's that much debate on that score (though I could be wrong as some folks will debate almost anything). At the same time what you note here (and yes I'll dance around it to as to not throw the thread into a tailspin) could dampen an appetite for it in a too real sort of way. But, man, I dunno. Virality goes a long ways nowadays. So, yeah. Just have to wait and see, I suppose.

So here's the thing about the OG Joker. In some respects it's completely inexplicable how the hell it got 1b WW. It's a Scorsese-esque R-rated psychological thriller that is a CBM in pretty much name only. (on the other hand... it might be a Graphic Novel Movie. So we're back to splitting hairs) To this day, I'm still a bit torn on calling it a CBM if only because current day CBMs have all sorts of Cape/CGI connotations/expectations. Then again, if the Western can have such a disparate entires in its pantheon, then so too can the CBM. But because Joker has so few recent antecedents, either within the CBM-genre or within R-rated psychological thrillers, it's... damned difficult to figure out just how well a sequel will do even before you throw in the curveball that is the musical aspect. Was this a case of lightning in a bottle? Or was this a case of tapping into an underserved set of consumers who will shell out money for an encore if it's just as good? Was this a case of hitting just the right set of cultural chords at just the right time? Even if so, has society become any... hmmm... "less like 2019 in the last five years?" might be a polite way to ask it. If anything, society might even be more frazzled and on-edge and angsty than it was pre-'rona. But if so, is this the sort of catharsis they're looking for? None clue. Like, you tell me that Joker 2 does 1.1b WW, and I'd believe you. You tell me it does 700m WW, I also believe you. Hell, you tell me it does 500m WW, and I also believe you (mostly because of the curveball aspect). Speaking of which, if we eyeball adjust for inflation, I suppose the last R-rated film in even a vaguely related area to do as well as Joker would be, what? Se7en? The Silence of the Lambs? Kinda think Silence of the Lambs might be the best, most on point, comparison. And perhaps a cautionary tale of sequels to out of nowhere phenomenons. "Psychological thriller" is a pretty loose fitting definition, I realize. And at the same time, setting the bar at "R-rated" means cutting out a lot of successful movies. But... Hell, no idea. I expect a tremendous amount of interest when the first trailer/teaser drops. How folks react to that might narrow my thoughts in one direction or the other, but I have to admit I probably won't have a tremendous feel on this until ticket sales start. Unless trailer views/social media engagement is just through the roof or hits rock bottom. tl;dr crossed with NB: Is Joker 2 a CBM sequel or a psychological thriller sequel or somewhere on a spectrum in between the two extremes? Answer me that, and I think we can narrow down the plausible ranges for that film considerably . (Outside of it being very good or very bad of course)

Joker 2 might be the biggest wild card in movies since.... Well, Avatar 2. ... Oh that's why some of the arguments sounded so familiar.

how well it does in Puerto Rico, obviously. 👍

Look, I don't feel like getting into a debate about what "real" preview numbers are. Maybe I'm too old for that shit. Maybe I think what we do, while damn great, is still only capturing a piece of the puzzle. Maybe it's just because it's damn unwinnable game so why even attempt to play? This is a similar feeling to what @M37 feels, I suspect, but I'm reaching a different conclusion from a similar sentiment. What I can say is this wasn't the post I was expecting to type up between seeing the 10m reported number from the headline on the WE thread, seeing my name tagged in here and actually reading the last few posts made here. (I was expecting to make a post about not being able to fully capture walkups in the way I do my sampling and compare it to walkup monsters like Let There Be Carnage and Rise of Gru) I get that we take a lot of pride in what we do. I also get as data-based nerds (said with affection, BTW) that we think we're "right". But you know what? Can't say I care enough to "prove it". Reported numbers are what they are. Besides, my natural inclination is took look under the hood and figure out what I can do to be better. Or acknowledge in some situations the way I personally sample things, I can't measure the crest of the incoming wave because it's too damn high (the downside of sampling at 4pm versus, say 8pm or 9pm [which as an aside IS NEVER HAPPENING]. Hell, maybe we just have to adjust to a new temporary meta. Wasn't that long ago that we were sorta-but-not-really joking about Disney always rounding up in increments of .5m on any previews above 10m (which TLM promptly ruined). In the end? Look, maybe WB is fudging and maybe it isn't. Maybe they are flat out lying in an attempt to chase better Trades headlines. It's something I can't prove. Or at least prove to my satisfaction. Emphasis on the phrase "my satisfaction". As such, just gonna keep doing what I do, and tinker as necessary. Maybe mentally bump up WB numbers for a short while, maybe not. In the end, that's the only thing I can control.

The problem with Morbius is... it (mostly) became a meme AFTER it was released. People mocking how few people were watching it was the main trigger. Then the famous "It's Morbin' time" came soon after. Can't shove the horse back in the barn at that point (as the gimmicky expansion proved). ETA::: Also when most of the memes are centered around people not caring, or ironically noting that people don't care about something, or flat out making something up about something in an attempt to prove "No, you didn't watch it, either"... that doesn't actually show that people DID care about it. Just the opposite! So, no, not all memes are created equal. As Sony found out when it tried to ride the Mobius meme waves a few weeks into release.

Weeeellll, at least with Joker we had the actual script before hand! And did for about a year or so, if memory serves. But, yes, I do think the... hmmm... background politics of the US of A and Canada... shaped pre-release discourse surrounding that movie in the DOM market that wasn't seen as much in other markets where such things weren't at the forefront of political controversy. (also Not The Joker Thread) ((also also Not The Critics Are Biased Thread)) (((also also... well, you get the idea) But that's also not unique! A lot of films are viewed through the prisms of when and where they're released. Otherwise films would never get re-evaluated as times (and tastes) change.

Yes, I was sorta kinda alluding to that discrepancy when I called it plausibly An Acquired Taste, in a much different way. The thing is, I suspect most folks in the whatever marketing departments that decide such things as embargo dates are probably closer to Taste In Movies of your bog-standard Top Critic than Joe and Jane Blogger. Sure, movies like Annihilation would be a blind spot as it's too far into the cinephile realm for them. On the other hand venture too far into the vox populi realm... Well, we'll see where it ultimately lands, but a more Showa-era inspired 'zilla film is probably precisely the type of film to land in a marketing department's blind spot (in such a way that a similarly goofy film with more of a DOM IP-based property wouldn't have been — even if it got similar RT scores).

You know... how's this for a controversial stance. Why don't we actually wait until we've seen the movie before we say whether or not it has controversial stances or not?

Quick, someone check TikTok to see if there's a "FOUR TICKETS TO GODZILLA PLEASE" zillameme going on!

The wanted to ensure a fresh rating for the majority of Thursday screenings across DOM! This Isn't the first time a distributor has misjudged what they have and it won't be the last. Usually it's in the Overconfident of What They Have direction, but you've been around long enough to see it go in the other direction. Remember what happened with Annihilation? Everyone here thought it was a classic dump job from Paramount only for it to turn out to be a minor critical darling. Now in their defense, Annihilation is a Weird As Fuck movie and very much An Acquired Taste, so in a way, I don't blame Paramount for thinking they had a steaming pile of crap on their hands. On the other hand, GxK might very well be An Acquired Taste... just in a much different way. So, yeah, they just misjudged what they had. LOL WB.

Hey, what do you want from them?!? THEY ALWAYS INCLUDE A "+" SOMEWHERE IN THERE!!! THEY'RE TOTALLY COVERED THEN!!! (so did I in my meme post you quoted, ftr 😉)

"Early Deadline Estimates" of 7.5m+incoming in 3... 2....

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:55pm - 4:20pm] * NOTE: All showtimes that started before 3:55pm were sampled at the start of the screening. Capped Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 0 0 189 19902 25007 5105 20.41% Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day 1229 T-0 Comps % Sold Since Mid-Day Total Sold Sellouts Shows Seats Left Total Seats Perct Sold Final Sold % of Final Comp JWD [3:45-4:35] 46.55 1476 10966 0/290 22873/33839 32.41% 10966 46.55% 8.38m BA [3:50-4:30] 113.60 874 4494 0/250 27184/31678 14.19% 4494 113.60% 8.63m Wick 4 [3:50-4:15] 93.70 1103 5448 0/186 17238/22686 24.01% 5448 93.70% 8.34m Fast X [3:50-4:15] 123.85 717 4122 0/243 29125/33247 12.40% 4122 123.85% 9.29m AtSV [3:50-4:20] 52.39 1676 9744 0/266 22261/32005 30.45% 9744 52.39% 9.09m RotB [3:50-4:15] 102.65 1054 4973 0/202 20839/25812 19.27% 4973 102.65% 9.03m FNAF [3:50-4:20] 78.95 814 6466 0/274 24505/30971 20.88% 6466 78.95% 8.13m BOSS [3:55-4:15] 189.00 477 2701 0/148 15375/18076 14.94% 2701 189.00% 10.87m GBFE [3:50-4:15] 232.36 439 2197 0/208 27083/29280 7.50% 2197 232.36% 10.92m FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number. Regal: 1294/8863 [14.60% sold] Matinee: 393/2543 [15.45% | 7.70% of all tickets sold] 3D: 756/5209 [14.51% | 14.81% of all tickets sold] PLF: 2213/9733 [22.74% | 43.35% of all tickets sold] ========= W-O-W! What an end to the day! Just sales everywhere. And it's fairly strong into the night as well, as 8pm'ers and 9pm'ers are selling pretty briskly as well. Just goes to show the powah of a Friday holiday (as noted by @keysersoze123) As such, can see this growing throughout the night. Still, don't want to get to far ahead of my skis here. Already did that once today, and that was enough thank you veddy much. As I said at the mid-day, ignore the BOSS and GB:FE comps as those underperformed and were far lower in overall gross, which distorts the comps. The JWD comp does give me some pause, but GxK has a much better PLF share than JWD did (43.35% vs 33.94%). Better 3D share as well (14.51% vs 10.92%). Plus there has indeed been some ATP hikes since then. Fast X, Rise of the Beasts, and Across the Spider-Verse are all more or less in the same ballpark so let's use them as anchors and go with 9.1m +/- .5m. Now as @charlie Jatinder noted, Spring Break might be playing a role here, but I have a hard time seeing below 8.5m (hence the cutoff). Plus even if Spring Break is putting a thumb on the scale, tomorrow being Good Friday might neuter that to a degree. Still, Sacramento might be running hot. Even so, undeniable how strong it finished here. Now? Now we wait and see just how strong it was elsewhere.

lol @M37's new avatar. 👍 (I take partial credit for it, ftr)

I can't easily search Twitter right now but looks like screeners went out for all but the final episode. I'll try to add more if I can find them.

Hey, people have corrected me before on much more obscure things in my comps! (values were probably low enough that it wasn't becoming apparent until just now) ((mostly I'm annoyed at myself for this when it comes right down to it))

Fuging fuck. Okay, I accidentally have been applying the GBA ATP adjustment to the Black Adam comp since fucking day 1 and literally none of y'all noticed it. Hell I only noticed it because I was doing some cross referencing against the newly added JWD comp. So here is the corrected block with slightly different analysis: =================== % Sold Since Last Night Total Sold Sellouts Shows Seats Left Total Seats Perct Sold Final Sold % of Final Comp JWD [12:00-12:15] 40.84 1071 9490 0/290 24248/33738 28.13% 10966 35.35% 7.35m BA [11:35-12:25] 107.07 466 3620 0/250 28058/31678 11.43% 4494 86.25% 8.14m Wick 4 [11:45-12:25] 89.21 430 4345 0/185 18230/22575 19.25% 5448 71.15% 7.94m Fast X [11:30-12:05] 113.83 477 3405 0/243 29842/33247 10.24% 4122 94.03% 8.54m AtSV [11:40-12:15] 48.04 1033 8068 0/251 22776/30844 26.16% 9744 39.78% 8.34m RotB [11:40-12:10] 98.90 487 3919 0/202 21893/25812 15.18% 4973 77.94% 8.70m FNAF [11:40-12:15] 68.58 499 5652 0/264 24678/30330 18.64% 6466 59.94% 7.06m BOSS [11:50-12:15] 174.28 262 2224 0/148 15852/18076 12.30% 2701 143.50% 10.02m GBFE [11:35-12:10] 220.48 245 1758 0/208 27480/29238 6.01% 2197 176.42% 10.36m Alright. Yeah that makes a bit of a difference but only a bit. Now thinking 8.75m as an initial target, but still looking at 9m as a possibility due to gaining on all comps. Fuckity fuck fuck. Mind, it was ONLY the Black Adam (and added for two minutes) JWD comps which were polluted, but it still was enough for me to get a bit over my skis. So, yeah. Most of my analysis (which looks like I deleted in a fit of anger) still stands due to growth but now seeing 9m as a ceiling and not a midpoint. Meh. ----- Since I deleted most of my initial thoughts, here is the Cliff Notes Version. Good start to the day, IMO. Having strong enough walkups that it's still gaining quite a bit on most comps. Do ignore, for the most part, the THG:BOSS and GB:FE comps as they under-performed pretty badly here. Plus the inherent danger of comping films in the 4m to 5m range versus those in the 8m to 9m range. All of those extra days on JWD is still making a difference, IMO. And, when it comes down to it, there probably HAS been some ATP hikes since Black Adam, plus having a higher PLF share. Still, inexcusable that I didn't notice this until now. (Maybe Dark Magic works in mysterious ways)

= Ah Christ. I JUST noticed an error in my sheets that's been there since Day One that none of y'all caught in regards the Black Adam comp that got transferred to JWD. Fixing and updating shortly