Porthos

Fuging fuck. Okay, I accidentally have been applying the GBA ATP adjustment to the Black Adam comp since fucking day 1 and literally none of y'all noticed it. Hell I only noticed it because I was doing some cross referencing against the newly added JWD comp. So here is the corrected block with slightly different analysis: =================== % Sold Since Last Night Total Sold Sellouts Shows Seats Left Total Seats Perct Sold Final Sold % of Final Comp JWD [12:00-12:15] 40.84 1071 9490 0/290 24248/33738 28.13% 10966 35.35% 7.35m BA [11:35-12:25] 107.07 466 3620 0/250 28058/31678 11.43% 4494 86.25% 8.14m Wick 4 [11:45-12:25] 89.21 430 4345 0/185 18230/22575 19.25% 5448 71.15% 7.94m Fast X [11:30-12:05] 113.83 477 3405 0/243 29842/33247 10.24% 4122 94.03% 8.54m AtSV [11:40-12:15] 48.04 1033 8068 0/251 22776/30844 26.16% 9744 39.78% 8.34m RotB [11:40-12:10] 98.90 487 3919 0/202 21893/25812 15.18% 4973 77.94% 8.70m FNAF [11:40-12:15] 68.58 499 5652 0/264 24678/30330 18.64% 6466 59.94% 7.06m BOSS [11:50-12:15] 174.28 262 2224 0/148 15852/18076 12.30% 2701 143.50% 10.02m GBFE [11:35-12:10] 220.48 245 1758 0/208 27480/29238 6.01% 2197 176.42% 10.36m Alright. Yeah that makes a bit of a difference but only a bit. Now thinking 8.75m as an initial target, but still looking at 9m as a possibility due to gaining on all comps. Fuckity fuck fuck. Mind, it was ONLY the Black Adam (and added for two minutes) JWD comps which were polluted, but it still was enough for me to get a bit over my skis. So, yeah. Most of my analysis (which looks like I deleted in a fit of anger) still stands due to growth but now seeing 9m as a ceiling and not a midpoint. Meh. ----- Since I deleted most of my initial thoughts, here is the Cliff Notes Version. Good start to the day, IMO. Having strong enough walkups that it's still gaining quite a bit on most comps. Do ignore, for the most part, the THG:BOSS and GB:FE comps as they under-performed pretty badly here. Plus the inherent danger of comping films in the 4m to 5m range versus those in the 8m to 9m range. All of those extra days on JWD is still making a difference, IMO. And, when it comes down to it, there probably HAS been some ATP hikes since Black Adam, plus having a higher PLF share. Still, inexcusable that I didn't notice this until now. (Maybe Dark Magic works in mysterious ways)

= Ah Christ. I JUST noticed an error in my sheets that's been there since Day One that none of y'all caught in regards the Black Adam comp that got transferred to JWD. Fixing and updating shortly

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:10pm] Capped Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 0 0 189 21131 25007 3876 15.50% Total Seats Sold Since Last Night 591 T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps % Sold Since Last Night Total Sold Sellouts Shows Seats Left Total Seats Perct Sold Final Sold % of Final Comp JWD [12:00-12:15] 40.84 1071 9490 0/290 24248/33738 28.13% 10966 35.35% 7.35m BA [11:35-12:25] 107.07 466 3620 0/250 28058/31678 11.43% 4494 86.25% 8.14m Wick 4 [11:45-12:25] 89.21 430 4345 0/185 18230/22575 19.25% 5448 71.15% 7.94m Fast X [11:30-12:05] 113.83 477 3405 0/243 29842/33247 10.24% 4122 94.03% 8.54m AtSV [11:40-12:15] 48.04 1033 8068 0/251 22776/30844 26.16% 9744 39.78% 8.34m RotB [11:40-12:10] 98.90 487 3919 0/202 21893/25812 15.18% 4973 77.94% 8.70m FNAF [11:40-12:15] 68.58 499 5652 0/264 24678/30330 18.64% 6466 59.94% 7.06m BOSS [11:50-12:15] 174.28 262 2224 0/148 15852/18076 12.30% 2701 143.50% 10.02m GBFE [11:35-12:10] 220.48 245 1758 0/208 27480/29238 6.01% 2197 176.42% 10.36m Regal: 953/8863 [10.75% sold] Matinee: 246/2543 [9.67% | 6.35% of all tickets sold] 3D: 553/5209 [10.62% | 14.27% of all tickets sold] PLF: 1847/9733 [18.98% | 47.65% of all tickets sold] ============ RECALCULATING TWO COMPS DUE TO ERROR IN SHEETS RELOAD IN FIVE MINUTES RECALCULATION DONE — SEE BELOW FOR NEW/UPDATED ANALYSIS

Currently at 60% after 74 reviews (might be at 64% coz lol RT's servers during Tomato Watch forever and always amen). .... For that matter LOL WB for waiting so long to drop reviews if it really is gonna be borderline fresh/rotten. They could have easily dropped them on Tue without skipping a beat (IMO),

Oh, yeah. @M37 I was wr- ... I was wro— I wa— ... I agree with you that at the time my local data did not support a 9m+ thesis. ==== Okay, look, cards on the table. Last few days some of the theaters that I trust to do well had been under-performing pretty badly. Enough so that while Japanese-American absolutely does not equal Asian American Pacific Islander demo, I started to dig in a little bit to see how previous Monsterverse Godzilla films were reported among the AAPI demo as I figured that was the best info I could get on the subject. I did this because I did note a causal correlation between the areas of town with a stronger AAPI presence and stronger theater sales. Didn't get too far into that analysis though so I mostly just put it to the side, aside from casually inferring that I had been looking into it. More to the point, I remembered what you said about both Black Adam and Rise of the Beasts and I just didn't like the pace it was setting against Black Adam and Rise of the Beasts. Or rather, I didn't love it for seeing 9m+. If I had remembered that RotB was getting goosed by EA sales, I probably would have been a bit more equivocal about it. But even so, that it was only doing a little bit better than BA was weighing pretty heavily in my thoughts. Even seeing 25 or 50 more ticket sales each of the last couple of days would have had me singing a pretty different song. I usually do see acceleration for walkup based films starting Sunday Night (reviews or no) and I hadn't seen enough of it. (I blame WB's marketing rollout personally ) The more I think about it, the more I think social media reaction is doing its magic today. Anyway, score yet another one for the Matrix. 👍 (Now we see if there is enough Dark Magic in the world to take this to...) ((no... let's not jinx it by putting that out into the world 😇)) (((Man, reviews really better not be ultra-putrid now )))

Okay, jokes aside, the Mando movie is allegedly penciled in to start filming in June. Now yes, there is the big song and dance about just how much Pedro Pascal has physically been on set for Mando. But for an honest-to-goodness movie? Have to think LFL/Disney is gonna want him on set as much as scheduling allows. And June + July offers a tidy window for his shots. Mind, dude is a busy actor (hence my quip about Eddington) so he might have something else planned then. Or maybe he wants to take time off. But June/July on Mando then Aug-Whenever for F4 then Whenever to Whenever for pickups/reshoots for Mando. Again presuming he has more presence on set than he did for S3 (which admittedly is a fairly big presumption).

He does have another show/movie lined up this year, you know.

*gets check from @Brainbug* *waits to make sure it clears* *transfers across multiple accounts so it can't get bounced/traced/retracted* ... Sorry. Did I say type any of that out loud?!? Don't mind me, it's nothing. Really. 😇

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting Capped Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 0 0 189 21722 25007 3285 13.14% Total Net Showings Added Today 1 Total Net Seats Added Today 247 Total Seats Sold Today 987 T-1 Comps % Sold T-1 Total Sold Sellouts Shows Seats Left Total Seats Perct Sold Final Sold % of Final Comp BA 104.15 585 3154 0/249 28462/31616 9.98% 4494 73.10% 8.95m Wick 4 83.91 716 3915 0/173 17327/21242 18.43% 5448 60.30% 7.47m Fast X 112.19 545 2928 0/243 30319/33247 8.81% 4122 79.69% 8.41m AtSV 46.70 1632 7035 0/251 23809/30844 22.81% 9744 33.71% 8.10m RotB 95.72 930 3432 0/201 22254/25686 13.36% 4973 66.06% 8.42m FNAF 63.75 933 5153 0/246 23639/28792 17.90% 6466 50.80% 6.57m BOSS 167.43 389 1962 0/141 15474/17436 11.25% 2701 121.62% 9.63m GBFE 217.12 310 1513 0/208 27725/29238 5.17% 2197 149.52% 10.20m FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number. Regal: 801/8863 [9.04% sold] Matinee: 172/2543 [6.76% | 5.24% of all tickets sold] 3D: 445/5209 [8.54% | 13.55% of all tickets sold] PLF: 1619/9733 [16.63% | 49.28% of all tickets sold] ==== Couldn't even sell 1000 tickets today. Pathetic. *looks down at card* Oh, I'm sorry. That would have been pathetic for a Jurassic World entry on T-1. My. Bad. Now *THIS* is the sort of acceleration I've been looking for ever since Sunday Night. Hell, this blows by the internal benchmark I had set in my head and said "BLLIPPP BLLIPPP BLLIPPP MEEP MEEP!!!!" as it did it. How much did it blow by my internal benchmarks? Well, let's put it this way. It sold better on T-1 than Rise of the Beasts did... and that had a T-0 EA day! Have to think the social media reactions are doing at least some of the work here, but make no mistake, this is showing why monster movies (and, yes, I consider JW/JP films to be monster movies) are seen to be the King of the Walkups. This one arrived a teeeny bit later than normal, locally (again, I usually see a surge starting on Sunday Night), but... Yeah. Unless reviews are putrid tomorrow this is likely blasting past 9m in previews. At the very least, have to think mid 8s is the floor (again barring putrid reviews). Buckle up folks; tomorrow could be a wild day.

friggin copy-n-paste. (thanks for the heads up) Fixed in that post and future ones, but not gonna bother with prior posts.

Not the thread to go deeply (or, really at all) into this, but... I might have been making a half-recollected piece of commentary about KotM... Just might, mind. (again, not really the thread for such things)

For previews (which is what I concern myself with) in Sacramento it was tracking at a near perfect 1:2 ratio against JWFK, or about 7.5m-ish, give or take (have to go through the relevant thread to pull the exact numbers but I recall it bouncing around inside the 7s). Reviews came out and momentum just stalled and it ended up at 6.3m

So tempted to make a vibes vs data joke here, but I fear I've made enough subtextual comments in this thread for one day. 😉

Now this just isn't true. KotM took a hit in my tracking when reviews dropped (dropped about a 1m or so for Thr previews) and our very own @Shawn Robbins noted in his recap at the time that KotM came in at the conservative end of projections: (saw this earlier today when I was looking for AAPI demo info on Godzilla films, ftr) What is true is that they don't necessarily take *AS MUCH* of a hit. But even here, what the reviews say matters. If the negative reviews say the monster fights are a boring slog where it's hard to see what happens, you can bet your sweet bippy that'll hurt much more than reviews complaining about paper thin plots and characterizations even if the RT/Metacritic scores are broadly the same. Once again I think we should give the GA a tiny bit more credit in how they consume RT/Metacritic/IMDB and the like. Yes, they place too much weight on the overall score at all three places (and others). But they are still a little bit more discerning than I think is given credit for, especially for popcorn movies like this one.

Not to bring this back up, but this is why I was interested in seeing Tuesday sales as even for very walkup based properties they tend to be something of a harbinger of how good the walkups will be. FWIW, the sales yesterday weren't quite what I was hoping for, at least in Sacramento, but there weren't bad enough for me to slam on the brakes, either. I was hoping for something closer to 500 tickets sold, or at least closer to 475. As it was, still good enough for me to float my personal midpoint a bit higher than it was. Have some other thoughts, particularly about how demos might be affecting sales in different parts of the country. But they're kinda half baked so probably leave them to the side for now (if I even bring them up at all).

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Motivated reasoning is a hell of a drug. If one looks at this dispassionately, Peltz has said all sorts of things that should give people pause/raise red flags. Attacking Black Panther and Kevin Feige are two big ones (Feige's current speedbumps not withstanding the man's track record speaks for itself). But how many people aren't looking at this dispassionately? How many people are still smarting over the stock fluctuations of last year? How many people are looking at how Disney+/Hulu is doing against Netflix? How many people just want to shake things up and don't care how they do it? (am I making a subtextual point here about a different in-the-news topic?) ... How'd that get in there? No idea. Anyway, when folks are ornery or displeased with the status quo or just in general dissatisfied, then they are prone to downplay or ignore or in general not give weight to things which might be ordinarily disqualifying. In fact, someone Saying Something Bold And Controversial might even be seen as a plus in a Speak (Alleged-But-Not-Really) Truth To Power sort of way. Consider it analogous to the Good Girls Love Bad Boys phenomenon where folks are actually attracted to someone saying taboo things. The thrill of being naughty, as it were. NARRATOR: Again with the subtextual commentary. I do tend to think that Iger has done himself no favors with the lack of succession plan, but let's not kid ourselves. Disney had a pretty big down year last year and that's the major source of all of this. How will it end? Hell if I know. But better believe that Peltz does indeed have a chance of pulling this out. How good of a chance? Again, hell if I know. Ask me again in a couple of weeks.

Forgot RotB had EA when I made my comments last night. Anyway, yes it would have and yes it did.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting Capped Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 0 0 188 22462 24760 2298 9.28% Total Showings Added Today 16 Total Seats Added Today 841 Total Seats Sold Today 445 T-2 Comps % Sold T-2 Total Sold Sellouts Shows Seats Left Total Seats Perct Sold Final Sold % of Final Comp BA 89.45 397 2569 0/232 28250/30819 8.34% 4494 51.13% 7.69m Wick 4 71.83 552 3199 0/166 17433/20632 15.51% 5448 42.18% 6.39m Fast X 96.43 327 2383 0/235 30517/32900 7.24% 4122 55.75% 7.23m AtSV 42.53 944 5403 0/230 23909/29312 18.43% 9744 23.58% 7.38m RotB 91.85 524 2502 0/183 22360/24862 10.06% 4973 46.21% 8.08m FNAF 54.45 524 4220 0/235 23745/27965 15.09% 6466 35.54% 5.61m BOSS 146.09 265 1573 0/136 15613/17186 9.15% 2701 85.08% 8.40m GBFE 191.02 223 1203 0/201 27252/28455 4.23% 2197 104.60% 8.98m FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number. Regal: 557/8482 [6.57% sold] Matinee: 113/2416 [4.68% | 4.92% of all tickets sold] 3D: 313/5209 [6.01% | 13.62% of all tickets sold] PLF: 1272/9733 [13.07% | 55.35% of all tickets sold] === Still showing growth on the sub 8m comps, but the trio of 8m+ comps I do have were a bit more mixed. RotB fell a tiny amount, while BOSS and GBFE rose a tad. But the later two under-performed locally, so who knows. Most hopeful comp, I think, is Black Adam which rose a decent amount. All in all, might be converging on 8m, but the error bars are still in play, I think. Shame about reviews being day-of, but whatcha gonna do. Not much else to add which hasn't already been said, so I'll leave it there for now.

You know... I'm not entirely sure what fandom is gonna think of this latest episode. Well, except for noting that Still, that quip aside I'm gonna be interested in seeing how fandom takes to it. I mean, I enjoyed it. And I certainly have A Few Questions afterwards about a few different things. But I do see the... potential for some folks being irritated at pacing issues, and I'm wondering if that's gonna raise its head or not. ... Okay, yeah. One real observation. Well, and a second observation:

Oh, I dunno. Could see a counterculture movement brew in the near future as a large scale Reaction Against The System/Machine. But it would only share in broad strokes with the Sixties counterculture movement. Much like the Sixties was similar in Broad Strokes to some of the counterculture aspects of the Roaring Twenties (thinking the Jazz scene/Harlem Renaissance, flappers and speakeasies, and even the first beginnings of the existentialism of Hemingway and co.) but very different in other respects. Mind, we might not as you say. Part of the problem is the.... Hmmm... Kinda doubt Gen Z is all that primed for a more hedonistic take on things that both the Twenties and Sixties shared. On the other hand, could easily see neo-existentialism rise as a radically different take on counterculture as people lean into despair/question their purpose in the universe. Just takes a couple of meme wars to really take off and, well, who knows. Getting back to the subtopic, I think for a modern take on The Prisoner to work, it'd really need to lean into the dual aspects of modern society that produce a decent amount of absurdity and angst (modern social media in particular would be a target rich environment). The Prisoner was both a critique on the Cold War as well as societal trends of the day. For a modern version of The Prisoner to be AS relevant, it'd need to be aimed squarely at some of the societal issues of today and not just retread/ape the concerns of the Sixties, relevant as they might be. The Prisoner was controversial back in the day, after all (one episode was refused to be aired by CBS when they were showing it back in 1968) and this should be as well. Can still be set in the Sixties and that might even help disguise the message a bit. But do think it can't just re-tell the same story in the same/similar way, as what's the point?

From Wikipedia: Not included are various shorts like Star Wars: Visions and I am Groot and whatnot.

A couple of Star Wars shows. Pixar has had at least one series. Various shorts from both Marvel and SW. Maybe others.

Pictured: Pads, G'nts, and Snakes I would have made a "you can bet on it" joke, buuuuuttt, probably a bit "too soon" and all that.

I mean, it's "(very) good for animation", so depends on how one wants to look at it. Will have to wait 'till we see Nielsen data before we can compare/contrast to something like What If? Plus multiple weeks of data to see retention/growth over the weeks I do note that the blurb says: but until we get harder numbers, it'll be hard to compare. Either way, I'd say yes it is good. Just have to remember the category it's being judged in.