Porthos

Guessing/projecting OW's really isn't my forte, I'm afraid, so I'll leave that to others. And even if it were, probably want a few more pre-sale days to really have an idea. Like, just based on its first couple of days, I would have been certain that TS4 would have cleared 150 OW at a minimum. That... Didn't happen, as one might remember. So forecasting an OW off of one day is not something I would want to do even if I were good at it. Which, as I said, I'm really not.

Usually I wait a few days after a movie starts pre-sales before bringing it back in to the system. Mostly because the day-to-day comparisons will be whack, as you imply. I haven't settled on an exact day yet, but I'll probably bring it back in around T-18 or so. Maybe T-20. Depend on my mood at the time, mostly.

I'd be fairly surprised if it performs under TS4, I'll put it that way. And today's sales do nothing to dissuade me of that thought.

As I mentioned in my last post, the PLFs aren't doing all that hot from my subjective perspective. At least not for first day sales. So it's interesting to see this might be reflected somewhat nationwide. The major local dine-in theatre (Studio Movie Grill) did gangbusters business... but only had one showing, which I reckon added to a rush factor. They do tend to be late scheduling, but they still usually start with two showings at least. The other dine-in theater has far fewer seats per screen (31 to 45), and it's doing decently. But it usually does, so nothing worth really commenting there. Stepping out for a bit, so any other comments will have to wait a couple of hours.

What's there to say? Just a great start for Frozen 2. The Aladdin comp is pretty lol-worthy, but the TS4 and TLK comps point to a very strong start. I will add two notes of caution, as is my wont. First off, we're a week closer to release compared to all three comps, so a slightly stronger start should be expected. So how much of it is calendar and how much of it is sheer demand we'll find out in due time. But I'd be remiss if I didn't mention it. The other note of caution is that this isn't really dominating at the PLF screens locally. 290 out of the 901 seats sold locally were PLF priced. That might seem like a high percentage, but on Day One I expect a bit more of a rush for the best screens in the best theaters in town. Century Arden's XD screen and the TrueIMAX screen didn't see all that much of a sales rush, though Arden was fairly respectable. How this will effect the average price per ticket remains to be seen, but it's something I'm going to keep my eye on as the sales continue. --- As for TROS? Just another fantastic day, relatively speaking. Would have been even higher, but there was a group cancelation (10 tickets or so) at a theater that wasn't spread out to other showings. I have to think the Frozen 2 might have helped a bit as at least a few people thought "Well, getting my Frozen tickets, might as well get TROS at the same time." Or maybe it's the constant promotion for The Mandalorian keeping SW in mind. Dunno. But can't call it anything other than what it is: Another strong day for SW and a great day for Disney when both are combined.

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 0 114 15433 16334 901 5.52% Total Seats Sold Today 901 Day One Adjusted Comps % Sold Day One Total Sold Sellouts / Shows Seats Left / Total Seats Perct Sold Comp Aladdin 383.98 231 231 0/66 852/9083 2.54% 26.88m TS4 128.74 689 689 0/97 10882/11571 5.95% 15.45m TLK 77.13 1150 1150 0/133 15821/16971 6.78% 17.74m Frozen 2 (adj) n/a 887 887 0/114 13119/14006 6.33% n/a PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales. In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block. === Thoughts on both movies days next post.

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-45 days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 2 194 11940 23248* 11308 48.64% * NOTE: A couple of theaters adjusted their seat maps in both directions resulting in a net loss of one seat overall. Total Seats Sold Today 77 T-45 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING) % Sold T-45 Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp CM 436.62 27 2474 0/81 8140/10614 23.31% 90.38m TROS (adj) n/a 69 10802 2/194 11184/21986 49.13% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel. --- Estimated TROS Gross So Far: % Final Sold TROS Sold Comp IW 63.63 15159 9645 24.81m DP2 118.59 8133 9645 22.06m Solo 166.61 5789 9645 23.49m JW:FK 154.87 6228 9645 23.69m AM&tW 209.45 4605 9645 24.09m Venom 222.86 4493 10013 22.29m CM 102.36 10553 10802 21.19m EG 40.53 26655 10802 24.32m TLK 98.41 10977 10802 22.63m It 2 199.82 5659 11308 20.98m AVG 22.95m NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question. === Frozen 2 next post.

Strange. I see a bunch of words on the screen, but all I hear reading them are "Pika pika pika".

Almost certainly need a holiday expansion now. Either Thanksgiving or Xmas. Just not quite enough gas left in the tank otherwise.

Mostly depends on what one thinks the floor is for TROS's OW and what the ceiling is for Frozen 2. Is the ceiling for Frozen 2 200m? Well, I'd say "ask me in a few days", but we still have the cautionary tale of TS4's first few days (once again, "thanks Deadline"). I will say I personally don't think it is impossible for F2 to approach 200m OW and it's not impossible for TROS to have a 190m OW. But I personally think that's the ceiling/floor scenario I mentioned. Everything going right and then some on the case of Frozen 2. It'd have to have a major zeitgeist moment and by definition I think those are hard to forecast with very (or no) limited data. How likely that is, I'll wait a few days before ruminating on further. I especially want to see the number Sacto comes up with tonight, for instance.

Thread of tweets by Breznican, retuning to the SW beat at long last. 👍 edit:::: The Force really does move in mysterious ways!!!!

Yeah, I talked about this a couple of days ago (not going to bother pulling up the post). As far as I know, it's something brand new. What's damned odd about it is that, as far as I know, it's an AMC exclusive. While AMC does have a pretty good national penetration it is by no means over the entire country. Disney is potentially leaving some dollars on the table by doing this. I hope it is a one-time thing and Dolby just gave them a great deal coz I won't be pleased to see the Opening Night Fan Events shift to AMC only, as I don't have one within 60 minutes of my home.

I may, MAY, have been solicited for costume ideas. ... Consider that my revenge for you OUTing my club.

Yeah, I was kinda confused as well but decided to let it pass without comment.

I'd reckon so. Is six days closer to release, mind. So, once again this year, not a perfect comparison. But should equalize pretty quickly. ==== I'll probably comp off the first two or three days for all of the family films I have to get a nice baseline for the initial takeoff and then shift over to x-Days from release on Thursday or Friday. The Pika Pika comp, if I include it, will be a little screwy when I shift over due to it having 30 days of pre-sales (versus Frozen 2's 18). But that too should normalize fairly quickly.

45% of TLK's first day sales, more or less.

Only a few hours in and Frozen 2 is already at 75% of TS4's first day sales locally. 👍 (this is my way of saying: Sacramento Seat Map built for F2)

=== Not to speak for them, but I'm expecting most of the trackers here to post on it, if not every day for some. That it'll only have 18 days of pre-sales will greatly help. Means not too many days of double dipping it and TROS.

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-46 days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 2 194 12018 23249 11231 48.31% Total Showings Added Today 1* Total Seats Added Today n/a Total Seats Sold Today 49 * Showing added today was at a non-reserved seating theater T-46 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING) % Sold T-46 Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp CM 438.62 43 2447 0/81 8161/10608 23.07% 90.79m TROS (adj) n/a 46 10733 2/194 11254/21987 48.82% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel. --- Estimated TROS Gross So Far: % Final Sold TROS Sold Comp IW 63.03 15159 9598 24.69m DP2 117.47 8133 9598 21.95m Solo 165.04 5789 9598 23.38m JW:FK 153.40 6228 9598 23.58m AM&tW 207.47 4605 9598 23.97m Venom 220.52 4493 9954 22.15m CM 101.27 10553 10733 21.05m EG 40.09 26655 10733 24.16m TLK 97.36 10977 10733 22.49m It 2 197.60 5659 11231 20.84m AVG 22.83m NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

While I'm a little unsure on my methodology, since I tend to stop my sampling at around the same time and use that to forecast a Thr number, I would think this might be more or less still in line with trying to figure out what TROS has received so far. Looks to be in range anyway, going by other figures out there. If my methodology is unsound (and I'm not sure where it is), not sure how I could tighten it up. Anyways, looking for a ballpark range here and not a precise number. None whatsoever, I'm afraid.

A literal "Laces Out, Dan" sighting in the wild today!

Since this doesn't have any good comps at the moment, I decided to take a page out of the Endgame playbook and estimate how much moola TROS has grossed so far by checking the current tickets sold against the final tickets sold at stop of tracking (adjusting when needed. Good news! Except for a very obvious outlier (Joker, which massively underperformed locally), they're all more or less in broad agreement. Enough so that tonight I'm gonna debut... Estimated TROS Gross So Far: % Final Sold TROS Sold Comp IW 63.03 15159 9554 24.58m DP2 117.47 8133 9554 21.85m Solo 165.04 5789 9554 23.27m JW:FK 153.40 6228 9554 23.47m AM&tW 207.47 4605 9554 23.86m Venom 220.52 4493 9908 22.05m CM 101.27 10553 10687 20.96m EG 40.09 26655 10687 24.06m TLK 97.36 10977 10687 22.39m It 2 197.60 5659 11182 20.75m AVG 22.72m NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question. ==== A little concerned it might be a bit high due to Infinity War and Endgame pulling up the average. On the other hand, Captain Marvel and It 2 are really pulling down the average, so it might be a bit of a wash. My criteria here were four quad movies that did 10m or more in previews. Was a little iffy on throwing in It 2, but I'm glad I did as it's counter-balancing IW and EG to a degree. I didn't include TS4 as that had too many kids tickets bought in my opinion. For the record, Joker came in at a ludicrous 27m comp. That's getting thrown right out. Out of curiosity, I just checked TS4 and that's at an equally ludicrous comp in the other direction at 19.1m. So TS4 is also definitely out. If I take out the current outliers in both directions (IW, EG, CM, and It 2), I get 23.42m. That seems a bit high given other tracking. So I'm going to roll with this for a while and see how it goes, but let's say an estimated 22m to 23m in Thr sales so far.

@grim22 I can't access the first version of the Tracking thread anymore. Did it get shuffled away somewhere in the latest forum re-organization? Or did you folks hide it again from prying eyes? No pressing reason tonight, but I just happened to notice I couldn't click on it anymore. Will be useful in the future though so I thought I'd ask now.