LinksterAC

So basically something pretty strange happened on Saturday.

That oddly makes some sense. The keystone demographic group (millennial men) was wearing sombreros and drunk off its a$$. You can count me among them. Let's see what that Sunday number looks like.

Ok, that would explain it. I just did a quick Google search, and it doesn't give that much detail. Edit: IMDB does indeed show 149 min. That deserves a like!

Maybe not. Honestly not sure what the Google Machine’s sources are...

Just looked it up. BP is 135 min. AoU is 142. CW is 148. AIW is 160.

For the sake of discussion: Has there ever been an MCU movie this long? It’s a full half hour longer than BP. That has to have an impact on Friday gross potential. Look at The Fellowship of the Ring’s post-holiday Friday to Saturday bumps. Pretty much 90-100% To be clear, I agree that predicting a 60M Saturday is not substantiated by a ton of data, but it’s also not completely unprecedented for really long movies, is it?

It could decrease, but I think it's pretty unwise to bet against this franchise. This situation smacks of those doubting AIW after Ultron's "tepid" showing. If it's an entertaining, universally loved film like TFA and AIW, it'll go gangbusters.

Long run time for AIW. Could have contributed to the “low” *eyeroll* Friday number. Let’s see what the Saturday bump looks like.

Imagine if he had directed Peter Rabbit. $1B domestic locked.

From my vantage point, AIW is lining up for a strong ~50% hold in its second frame. Comparing its dailies to the other MCU openers, it's managing to keep a pretty consistent distance between itself and the first Avengers. Looking ahead, it's getting hard to see how its dailies start lagging behind Black Panther for at least the next two weeks. 700M is looking more and more likely by the day.

Based on its strong internal holds opening weekend, I'm getting the feeling that AIW is in the same "event movie" group as TDK, A1, and the TLW. I think it drops around 50%.

Fun weekend all-around. BP's hold is juicy. It's got 700M in its crosshairs. As far as AIW goes, that Sunday hold is incredible. I really think it portends long legs and close to a 3X multiplier. Like many others, I have some trepidation about the potential for repeat business, but the first weekend is as promising an indication of future legs as I could hope for.

These 2.3 to 2.5 multiplier predictions don't make much sense to me. This movie is the cinematic event of the year and it's dense, really well received, and therefore begs for repeat viewings. Besides that, I suspect that Disney is (once again) underestimating that Sunday number, and it will come in closer to 66M. Looking at the Saturday number, the only movies that even come close are The Avengers (78.6M adjusted) and Jurassic World (77.5M adjusted). Both of those movies were around a 3X multiplier (JW was actually higher). I think those two films are the also the best comparisons, but that preview number makes me think IW is a little more front loaded. I see something like a 2.9X multiplier off of a 255M weekend for a 740M finish. Avatar is probably safe domestically, but I think TFA may be in trouble WW.

There's a technical aspect of art that's objective, I think. In the case of film, there are certain ways to employ the camera, audio effects, music, editing, lighting, staging, acting, etc. to move the eye, induce certain emotional responses, communicate information, and so on. They're pretty repeatable and measurable. These things can be done correctly or incorrectly, and so there are objective ways to judge how "well" a film is made by looking at how well these tools are used. Whether what's well executed appeals to the consumer of the art is a different story altogether, and I would agree that is, by definition, purely a subjective experience. I think Michael Bay, for example, knows what he's doing on a technical level. Despite that fact, I generally don't like his movies because I don't like how he applies his technical know-how. I'll admit it's sometimes hard to parse out whether a high level of technical ability is being displayed in some things that are considered "great art." For example, I seriously wonder sometimes if Jackson Pollock is a hack, and scratch my head at his work. That said, I think this difficulty in assessing technical execution varies from medium to medium, and that it's easier to figure out in film.

In my humble opinion, not only will it survive The Last Jedi, it will ultimately endure because of it.

I stand utterly schooled.

No snow here right now during my visit to Montréal. Of course it's also -5F, so I think it's more accurate to say that, one way or another, Canada fucks you.

I feel like someone should start playing the Derby with Deadline's predictions. That would be entertaining.

Oh, I think they're absolutely wrong. I'm just surprised they'd even publish that number.

They're forecasting a Thursday to Friday drop? Huh?

There's another time of year where people are working, and schools are out. Maybe we should use the summer as a model for next week?

Here's the model with more "regular" weekday drops. Friday & Saturday boosts for January 5 and 6 are a little bit steeper, as is the Tuesday drop. Date Weekday Daily % change Through 25-Dec 395.6 26-Dec Tuesday 27.8 27-Dec Wednesday 21.8 -22% 28-Dec Thursday 19.4 -11% 29-Dec Friday 21.4 10% 30-Dec Saturday 23.5 10% 31-Dec Sunday 16.5 -30% WKND-3 61.3 1-Jan Monday 19.7 20% WKND-4 81.1 2-Jan Tuesday 8.9 -55% 3-Jan Wednesday 8.0 -10% 4-Jan Thursday 7.2 -10% 5-Jan Friday 13.0 80% 6-Jan Saturday 17.5 35% 7-Jan Sunday 10.1 -42% WKND 40.6 CUME 610.4

Purely anecdotal, but my high school was back in session on January 2 in 2006. This year they're off until the 8th. In general, in California, the winter recess has gotten longer in the past decade. I really have no idea how that's going to play out this year. It may drop 60% like you suggest, but it may hold stronger than my forecast shows. It would be great to get data on this from @EmpireCity or @The Greatest Rth if they have access to it.

Practically all of SoCal I've researched is off. Only about 20M people.

It's a question of how the calendar plays out. It's a really hard week to plot out, but there's no doubt a lot of schools are still on break during that week. None were for TFA. The RO comparison is a little muddier. More schools were back in session during that week than TLJ, but not all. TLJ has an advantage over both TFA and RO during the Jan 3-5 weekdays, it's just hard to say how much.