Daxtreme

Further below estimates. This movie can't catch a break

Indeed. Transformers grossed 1.1 billion in 2014 but all the other movies except The Hobbit weren't even close to $1B And then, 2015 happened.

I'd say Rogue One has a pretty good shot at $1B, seeing the success of Ep 7

Great post. I definitely didn't know that, thanks!

To be fair, I hope that the movie that beats Star Wars doesn't beat it like Jurassic World beat Avengers -- by 1 million. A movie opening to 249 million would be a pretty lame way to beat Star Wars. At least beat it properly! Like Batman beat Ghostbusters, The Lost World beat Batman, Spider-Man beat Harry Potter, Avengers beat Harry Potter, and so on - all by a pretty wide margin.

Movies can still claim opening week-end records in their respective months! I'd like to see a studio pull off an audacious September release, and score a 100+ opening week-end there.

If the actuals is 20M+, then TFA will have grossed more than $20M for 17 straight days. Of course, that's a record. And one that's probably not going to fall for a long while.

Sums up pretty much what I feel. We're living history guys. Let's enjoy it! Most people around us will only ever acknowledge this box office run once it's over, once the numbers are in. We're seeing them coming in, every day, firsthand. And they're amazing.

21.2 puts it ahead of American Sniper. I'm satisfied.

Also, apparently, according to boxofficemojo we're getting actuals for the whole holidays tomorrow. Like, December 24th up to now. Is that true? If yes, how much of a change can we expect? Also, what do we have now then if it's true? Partial actuals?

Yep, Disney estimates. We're still waiting on rth numbers for Sunday Don't get your hopes too high though, the last sunday of the holidays is usually huge-drop-land

So TFA is a monster hit in the UK and should pass Avatar this week, as well as all-time #1 Skyfall within a week or two. Most of the other markets are dominated heavily by Avatar, but Titanic's gross is within reach for most of them. The most out of reach are probably Avatar's grosses in Russia and South Korea. Unless they are suddenly holding very well? Japan is holding very well for TFA, and the country is known to be a slow burner so final results impossible to predict.

It's not over, we've yet to see actuals and many of us here believe, me included, that Disney is lowballing it.

Sorry I extrapolated opinion from other sites as well. But I did get that vibe from here as well, lemme check... Apparently it originates from page 58. Anyway, maybe you didn't say it directly, but some of you sure as hell are hinting it, otherwise there wouldn't be so many people defending the May release in here.

Seriously guys, Star Wars could release at any time of the year and would break records, that's just how it is. People back then were saying that "Star Wars couldn't ever beat OW record because it releases in December", and now that it did, everyone's like "IT HAS TO RELEASE IN DECEMBER TO MAKE MONEY" Wrong - Star Wars just proved that it can release at any time of the year that it wants, it's still gonna break records anyway. Don't become the next wave of naysayers, please. I'd be willing to bet that it could destroy records in September too. Seriously.

And May 25th, 2017 is the 40th anniversary of Star Wars. No way are they gonna move Episode 8 from that and leave nothing in its place. 0% probability.

Especially when you see stuff like this Fastest to $100m, $200m, $300m, $400m, $500m, $600m, $700m US Box Office Milestone Movie Days Total Gross to Date $50 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 1 $119,119,282 Full Chart $100 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 1 $119,119,282 Full Chart $150 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 2 $187,413,486 Full Chart $200 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 3 $247,966,675 Full Chart $250 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 4 $288,076,417 Full Chart $300 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 5 $325,438,146 Full Chart $350 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 6 $363,460,329 Full Chart $400 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 8 $440,181,717 Full Chart $450 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 9 $496,913,249 Full Chart $500 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 10 $540,058,914 Full Chart $550 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 11 $571,420,943 Full Chart $600 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 12 $600,949,526 Full Chart $650 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 14 $651,965,583 Full Chart $700 million Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens 16 $720,839,583 Full Chart $750 million Avatar 253 $750,999,186 Full Chart TOP SINGLE DAY GROSSES BY DAY OF THE WEEK Monday 1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $40,109,742 4,134 $9,702 12/21/15 4 $288.1 $740.3 2 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $31,362,029 4,134 $7,586 12/28/15 11 $571.4 $740.3 3 Spider-Man 2 Sony $27,661,137 4,152 $6,662 7/05/04 6 $180.1 $373.6 4 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Par. $26,779,538 4,260 $6,286 5/26/08 5 $152.0 $317.1 5 Jurassic World Uni. $25,344,820 4,274 $5,930 6/15/15 4 $234.2 $652.3

Fun fact According to boxofficemojo, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse is now the movie with the second-highest number of records aaaaand they're mostly related to its wide release http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/?page=byrecord&p=.htm

If you remove china from the top 5 worldwide, Star Wars is currently sitting at #3, little less than 500M behind Titanic, and 1B + behind Avatar. Bar a miracle in China, Avatar's record is safe.

Ok so you don't agree, fine, but you can't deny that the Chinese market is heavily skewed toward recent movies, particularly the 2-3 last years. It really undermines movies that came prior to that, heavily. It's not even close to inflation, we're talking +30-50% increase per year. Inflation is like 2%/y I still think that it gives a clearer picture but whatever. Especially right now since Star Wars' only missing market is China.

Here's an interesting table I made, comparing top 10 all-time grossers with and without china. Furious 7 drops 4 ranks, HP gains 2, Avengers 2 drops 2 ranks, and Star Wars and Frozen climb 2 ranks. I believe that removing China gives a much better picture of where the movies stand in all markets worldwide in terms of awareness. As we all know, Avengers 2 couldn't quite live to the first one in terms of hype, and it really shows this fact better if you remove china because the first one didn't make a fortune there. If you add China, suddenly it's not quite clear. Also, TA is barely behind Jurassic World without China, and the 2 so close together like this makes much more sense when you compare their numbers in all countries except China. China's the RNG factor here when you really look at it. And it has benefited mainly movies from the last 2 years only. Removing it gives a clearer picture of where movies stand, especially compared to movies older than 2012 (not shown on this list). This "modified" top 10 better showcases the "true" hype that those movies got worldwide. Was Furious 7 really as hyped as Avengers and Jurassic World, and more hyped than Harry Potter as well as Frozen? Did it have more, or any, impact than them? Not really, it didn't. It did on the all-time chart only because of China. #9 sounds a lot closer to where it belongs in terms of cultural impact after its run. It also shows that Star Wars is really killing it worldwide, and should have no problems getting to Titanic's level when both are without China. It's already on JW and TA's level after 3 weeks. And Avatar is pretty much out of reach, unless China shows up, and pulls a Furious 7 on Star Wars.

All will depend on the holds post-holidays. Really hard to tell how they will shape up to be. It could drop massively, but then, it could also hold decent enough due to the hype.

Both Avatar and Return of The King dropped 33% on their last sunday of the holidays, so I would say it will drop between 30 and 40% of Saturday number So 20-25M. 20M would be a 42% drop.

Indeed, what's happening right now with TFA is the direct product of this cultural phenomenon that was Star Wars in 1977. It made this all possible.