Gavin Feng

review embargo time? Thought I already saw some negative comments on Douban after previews in US.

In terms of single movie, none of these movie should be seen as a big flop at this point. But from a perspective of the whole market, the performance is somehow embarrassing because CNY have always become higher and higher for the past ten years no matter how awful the growth of annual box office was. It is one of the very few periods that might draw those elder audience who don't have the habit of moviegoing into cinemas. Therefore, industry always have high expectations on CNY movies. Once it "fails", there is a possibility that any other big holiday period could go wrong, let alone average/normal weekend.

Roland Emmerich was set to co-direct Battle of Lake Changjin but missed the pic due to COVID. In other words, he could've been a $900M blockbuster filmmaker.

none of those scores is true.

I just don't want to see these movie though I still record data.

Most movies meet their higher growths about 5 days before opening. At this point, everything look faithful for Changjin sequel. ¥300M-plus final pre-sale is very likely. Have a shot at what Monster Hunt 2 made (¥367M). $100M-plus OD should happen for this movie. But total box office for the first day of CNY (Feb.1) is likely to go into a decline (Last year it was ¥1,692M. It's unclear if ¥1,458M from the same day of 2019 could be reached).

March opening record as long as reviews are positive.

I’m not so sure right now.

Movies hit $1,000M before a Chinese release Titanic The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Pirates of the Caribbean 2 The Dark Knight Avatar Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two Skyfall Minions Star Wars: The Force Awakens Star Wars: The Last Jedi Avengers: Infinity War Joker Spider-Man: No Way Home

The chance that Wolf Warrior 3 get greenlight has been gone since western world accused China of doing wolf warrior diplomacy. Wolf Warrior 2 caused a headache for Beijing in terms of handling diplomatic relationships after it was widely praised as an impressive propaganda film with $870M box office revenue. And high ranks banned Wolf Warrior 3 in order to avoid more complicated diplomatic situation. At this point, China is devoted to make movies about resist US aggression and aid Korea(Korea War) like Changjin. But as the relationship between China & South Korea improves, this kind of movies they support right now could be in danger at some point. Politicians would not allow cultures to take over politics.

So what? Is this buddy a Chinese filmmaker or party member?

The new work of Makoto Shinkai was set to debut this fall. Any potential release date?

$5M for 355's opening?

why not just start a spoiler thread?

I think Avatar 2's opening will be under what Avengers: Endgame did. And maybe lifetime. Even though I believe A2 would be a more enjoyable movie.

I did not mean to compare them. I'm saying the disappointment argument is ridiculous. I agree any opinion saying the legs is weak or bad. But those who think $650M-plus lifetime is disappointed? If legs is everything, then I suggest folks here go to track those movies which make $100 lifetime after $1 opening. A better run that make $600M movie feel desperate.

There was. Just all of them are shit movies.

In terms of absolute hold, nearly 70% second weekend drop is definitely not good. But in terms of volume, $80M is a amazing performance. Remember, only 3 movies this year made that much on their opening weekend.

I never expect it would get 3* multiple ($780M+), maybe not even 2.75* ($715M) despite DEC release & A+ grade. That's not because I am conservative but because I have seen the limitation of analysis rely on historical data. In 2019, we already saw how Avengers: Endgame ran in box office with A+ grade. Many folks, incl myself, thought the movie had a shot to top The Force Awakens (2.62*) after its opening weekend. But it turned out that A+ is not everything. Many believed there was no way that DEC legs could be under 3.0* even if controversial comments were there, until recent SW movies. With all these "accidents", it's obviously that things are changing. From a more subjective perspective, I don't think we should've been that surprised on these numbers. After seeing the movie in Macao, I doubt the movie is really that special that deserve to smash every record. The experience in cinema is wonderful especially those scenes fans have expected for a year. But the way they honor it is really meh. I even think some fan-fade works can create better moments if I could see them on big screen for the first time. I know that personal senses are not good argument on box office analysis, but it really failed to bring me those those emotions that Avatar, Endgame even The Force Awakens (I'm not a big SW fans) did, or make me believe it would hit that level. At least for event movies, box office may never ever work like what we believed based on previous numbers. I think it's time for us to stop being "empiricist"

I still think a lifetime number around AIW. People's expectations here are so wavering. Many doubted $550M-plus lifetime before pre-sale. Then many expected $700M-plus after $260M opening. And now disappointments. The conclusions for its performance are very biased.

Can Matrix 4 hit $30M on 5-day opening? Because it require $8.4M+ on both SAT & SUN.