Brainiac5
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Posts posted by Brainiac5
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1 hour ago, a2knet said:
imo, reasonably optimistically for JUSTICE LEAGUE:
Wed 10.5 (122.4 cume)
Thu 9.0 (-14%)
Fri 18.0 (+100%)
Sat 17.1 (-5%)
Sun 9.0 (-47.5%)
- 44.1 2nd weekend (-53.0%)
- 175.5 10-Day cume [93.8 ow + 81.7 Mon-Sun]
- If it adds the Mon-Sun amount to it's cume then the DOM is looking at 257 [2.74x]
Edit: If it falls short of this amount and COCO over-performs, then COCO over JL is a possibility, unthinkable a week before release, much like ZOOTP over BVS.
250 dom should be locked for JL after this weekend.
Keeping the same dom/ O.S Ratio gives it 750ww.
257 gives it 771ww.
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15 minutes ago, Subzero said:
That doesn't sound right ...if China alone is 4m on Tuesday ...then how can OS Total be $9.5m for Tuesday ?
Something is not adding up ....
I don’t know ,We will see where it is after this weekend..
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47 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
So Mendelson was right with his 325 figure. So if that is true then that means it made 9.5m OS on Tuesday taking a big 49% tumble from Tuesday. That sounds weird and huge
International O/W
Dom 93/O.S 185 =278
Dom Mon -7 Tues-10 +93= 111
O.S Mon-18+185=203
111+203=314
Let me know if I'm
missing something.
Trying to keep up
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12 minutes ago, Rth Ragnarok said:
At the time When I said "yes" to the post about 17m Monday for Intl that was including CHN,SK
So maybe about a 20mil Intl Tuesday?
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15 minutes ago, Diana Prince said:
I have been lurking on this thread. Indeed, Rth did confirm that the 17.5 million did not include China and SK. Ultimately, we will find out in short order.
If it’s the case then JL will probably be over 325 foriegn on Monday.
This film may get close to 500mil Only time will tell.
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5 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
Someone else doesn't have access to the numbers that Rth has and thus couldn't possibly know whether it included China/SK numbers or not. Why are you making something so simple so difficult?
You are not getting what I’m trying to say but I won’t make it any harder for you.
Lets wait and see where the film is after this weekend .
If it’s over 500mil ww then 700ww+ is where I believe it will be heading to.
Under 500ww then it may fall short of 700mil.
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2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
Err. No he didnt. I just posted the relevant posts, did you just ignore that? If you want you can go to Rth's profile and look through his posts.
I may have asked someone else about it.
Its just that there’s so many replies you can get lost in you you are replying to.
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40 minutes ago, Subzero said:
You did and he did answer that it wasn't included, I remember seeing it in the JL thread or the Monday Thread.
I knew I remembered him saying it.
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26 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
Can you clarify what is the problem there? Are you referring to the over/under 325m part?
Yes as he never gives a definite Number.
Some just went with the 325 but it can very well be closer to 340mil.
We just will not know until things are clear.
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@ZeeSoh I found the problem
The next two weeks will decide the fate of the Justice League movie. It’ll open in Japan and Pakistan later this week and debuts in Lebanon on the 30th. The film should be over/under $325 million worldwide as of yesterday, with a solid $10.55m Tuesday in North America for a new $111.9m five-day cume. At least it has already passed Green Lantern and Catwoman.
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11 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
Here is your post asking if it made 17 OS or not on Monday. You did not ask about China or SK
Here is Rth response to you. Again nothing about China or SK.
You can go here https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/25126-monday-numbers-justice-league-75m-wonder-4m-thor-25m/?page=20&tab=comments#comment-3263162
for my speculation whether the monday includes tuesday numbers from China/SK. And on this page https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/25126-monday-numbers-justice-league-75m-wonder-4m-thor-25m/?page=21 you can see RTh's response saying the 305 number only includes Monday numbers from Sk/China. Now this was yesterday and a day before the 325 article from Mendelson. As you can see Rth said that the 305 number includes monday SK/China number. He doesnt say anything about the Tuesday numbers
I hope it is clear now
Ok it’s clear now but we shall see where everything is by Monday for sure.
I can see why you say the Numbers don’t add up if they have O.S numbers as well.
The film doesn’t seem
to be crashing like that in the foreign markets so I have no ideal.Scott may have had a typo there.
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12 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
I am looking at Rth's posts right now and he replied to your comment asking if it made 17 million OS on Monday. He did not say anywhere that that OS number did not include SK or China.
That article by Mendelson which mentioned 325 number today includes the 10.5m Dom. It says in the article itself
Link me
that conversation as I’m looking for it but can’t seem to
find it.
I could have sworn I asked him about China and SK as well.
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2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:
Below 800: disappointment
Below 700: flop
This is kinda the way I see it.
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13 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
Something doesnt add up with Mendelsons numbers. He said JL is at 305 on Monday which would mean it made 26 million worldwide on Monday including 7.3 Dom and 18.7 OS. He says JL had made 325 by Tuesday which would give 20m worldwide on Tuesday. Remove 10.5 Dom from those number would mean it made 9.5m OS. If that is true that would mean a 49% Tuesday OS drop which is massive. So either something is off here or JL took a huge tumble on Tuesday for some reason
It did 18.7 on Monday OS as per Mendelsons number of 305 and that includes China and SK
The 325 number by Mendelson includes Tuesday OS numbers as well. Rth replied yesterday to my comment speculating whether the monday total included China and SK totals up to Tuesday or not. He has said nothing about the new numbers provided by Mendelson today
RTH responded to me about the 18.5 Monday and it didn’t include China or SK.
ITS unclear about the 325 but we will have some clarification soon.
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7 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:
You have the fan boy issue hahah your making a fool of your self. honestly, thinking 700m for JL is ok, is bad. you should get a check up. You can love the movie all you want thats ok, I'm glad. but its going down in history as one of the most disappointing BO performances ever.
When have ever said “700mil
for JL is ok”? It’s respectable as far as CBM goes.
As I said before I much rather the film
be labeled as a Disappointment then a flop.
Why is that so hard for you to believe?
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8 minutes ago, Steele131 said:
So what are typical thanksgiving Wednesday jumps?
MJ2 +20%
FB + 17.5%
Time will tell what JLs jump is gonna be for Wendsday.
On Thursday
FB fell -12.8%
MJ2 fell -24%
JL seems less front-loaded than MJ2 so I’ll give it about a 15% drop on Thursday.
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1 minute ago, Jay Hollywood said:
Its a flop no matter how you slice it. Selling less than half the tickets as Avengers Domestic and OS with the Superheroes who have been the most popular for a hundred years not just since 2008. Its a box office disaster if you as me. Its so bad,I legit feel bad/embarrassed for WB and everyone involved.
This is a fanboy logic as films are not determined a success by matching the numbers of other films.
The film has to clear its budget first and anything over that is a plus.
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1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:
I mean you may end up right, but even If it does $800m (which I would give about a 5% chance or less right now), it really is still a disapointment.
As I said before”Much rather see this film be labeled as a Disappointment/Underperformance then a flop”.
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Just now, Blaze Heatnix said:
According to Scott Mendelson, Justice League has made 325 million worldwide. No idea if he's spot on or not, but that's what he said.
That’s already 214 foreign and only Monday Numbers are included (via RTH).
As I keep saying “many have jumped the gun “ .
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11 minutes ago, XO21 said:
Well you know not everyone has Thanksgiving boosting the numbers...
It has to stay flat from last week (Wednesday-Sunday) $185m+$185m= $370m
Put it this way it had a 17.5mil Monday and didn't include China or Korea.
If it keeps it up then you can very well see a overseas total over 340mil Monday.
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3 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:
I love it
So JL has a pretty standard/typical discount Tuesday increase, with a slight bump due to more people being off than normal, and now it’s gonna do 300m? Ok
Never said it’s goong to do so but there’s certainly possibilities the film can do.
We just don’t know at the moment but I will say this .If it holds like FB more so than MJ2 then it’s chances goes up.
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4 hours ago, zackzack said:
Something tells me JL will hit somewhere around MoS WW of $668M......
Back to the drawing board?
If JL cover a 1.98x in 10days in both N/A and O.S then it will look like this
185/365=550 if that’s where it’s gonna be then 700mil is the floor with a high possibility of 800mil ww If it’s Domestic/foreign ratio stays the same.
Usually The multipiers are identical(some sway up and down).
IF JL has a 2.9x then it’s 814mil ww,If it’s a 3x then 834mil.
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5 hours ago, Krissykins said:
I think you’re misunderstanding because:
multipliers from friday to end of day Tuesday:
Mockingjay 1 2.6x
Mockingjay 2 2.68x
Justice League 2.92x
Fantastic Beasts 3.02x
So Justice League is holding on better than both Mockingjay films, despite the bigger Monday drop.
I know it opened less, but you’re comparing legs.
This is close to where I see JL Multiplier being.
I actually believe it can pull off a 3x-3.2😃
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3 minutes ago, Noctis said:
And then watch it having a 60%+ drop on its third weekend.
The film will most likely still have a 230-240 total afterwards.
We just don’t know just yet that’s all.
I know it opened less, but you’re comparing legs.
5-Day Weekend Thread | Saturday #s (Asgard p.109) - Coco 17.7, Justice League 15.7, Wonder 8.3, Thor: Ragnarok 6.4, Daddy's Home 2 5.3
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Now post the Tuesday increases for all films.