Brainiac5
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Posts posted by Brainiac5
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3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
The HG franchise had better legs post o/w than the usual blockbuster because the audience skewed female. That skewing is what also contributed to WW's legs. I don't see that happening for JL considering the o/w m/f make up.
So far JL has held better with the exception of Monday which still wasn’t by much.
JL Tuesday increase was better and I’m assuming Its Wen increase will be better or on par.
JL very well can catch up with BVS Weekend to Weekend Numbers going forward.
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5 minutes ago, Noctis said:
As long as it doesn’t crash and burn like BVS then it’s not to far fetch.
JL Second Weekend might Best BVS.
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1 minute ago, Noctis said:
Assuming it's going to hit 3x is ludicrous to the highest degree.
Assuming it's going to BEAT FB1's 3.15x is batshit insane.
Better Tuesday’s increases can certainly close the gap.
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7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:
That's still a disappointment.
It would only be successful in the sense that it avoided complete floppage.
I’ll take a disappointment/Underperformance over a flop any day.
BVS also has this label but it comes with its insane bad holds ,where’s JL will be a disappointment/Underperformance with much better reception and good will going forward and Better holds.
JL has a chance to have a second weekend bigger than BVS despite opening 70mil less.
That says a lot as JL has Competition and BVS didn’t.
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8 minutes ago, a2knet said:
that is not what i was debating. just that 3x does not give it 300m. and you saying it's a good result is what i am claiming to be revisionist history. 300m would be a shit result.
But sucessful
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13 minutes ago, Finnick said:
$10.55M/$111.90M
If it holds better than MJ2 this weekend then 300 Domestic is certainly alive.
Anything over 180 10day puts 300 domestic on the table.
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14 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:
Yeah, don't see any reason why JL would get to a 3x. Doesn't mean it can't have decent/good legs for a blockbuster though. Tuesday increase is very good, and it has the benefit of Thanksgiving week, although I'm interested to see how today's numbers look after the juiced up Tuesdays we've seen this year. Wouldn't surprise me if some stuff stayed close to flat.
Put it this way
93o.w
M-T
7.5+10.7+12+10=49.2 The film will nearly cover a 2x in 10days
MJ earned more than 100 mil more afterwards
FB earned also earned More than 100mil after wards.
If JL holds up and and looking at 170-180 after 10days then its possible.
(Note) this is a hopeful prediction and a best case scenario.
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5 minutes ago, XO21 said:
A disastrous OW doesn't give automatically better legs. A 3x is Guardians territory lol
A lower Weekend doesn’t automatically gives a films worse or equal Legs.
JL can very well have a Second Weekend bigger than BVS while its Dailies for this week will also be above it.
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7 minutes ago, a2knet said:
- 3x with 93.84 ow gives 281.5m dom. 300 dom requires 3.20x, bit higher than FB's legs.
- that's revisionist history 101.
you didn't go a dime below 400m dom (or was it 450m...or maybe 500m...can't remember) before thu previews came out.
- but at least now we agree on the 'bvs reception' bit.
You know these things are predictions and not one of them are exact science.
I know 300 requires a 3.2x as I was just giving him an example of what the film can look like if it does so.
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5 minutes ago, raegr said:
300M is embarrassing for a movie this caliber. 350M the we're talking.
When you think about BVS Reception then 300mil(3x) looks good for it’s sequel.
If it keeps the same Dom/O.S Ratio Then your looking at 900mil ww.
Not saying it’s gonna do that but just giving you an example as to what it can look like.
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5 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:
JL performance is not really being impressive.
It is doing what has happened many times before, that it had a lower opening weekend than expected and half decent legs which will still end to a rather substandard total domestically.
If it legs it up to 280-300 million, then yeah it is a different story.
The verdict is still out for JL .
This film certainly can earn a CBM 3x(281)Multiplier.
Now if the film can hold better than Let’s Say FB I’m the coming weeks then it’s Multipier can go as far as 3.2x(300) .If it holds the same Domestic to Foreign ratio Then the headlines jumped the gun.
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21 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
Lol this is a reach. Comparing it’s Tuesday to the previous Sunday (god knows why).
It’s a Insane Tuesday increase for the movie.
I fixed that for you.
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3 hours ago, Krissykins said:
RTH liked this!!
Thats a great increase : ~ +42.5%.
Fantastic Beasts was +37.6% by comparison.
FB also increased by 17% On Wed.
Same increase gives JL 12.5mil.
-12% On Thursday gives it 11mil
Can JL Second Weekend look like this
Fri +92% = 21mil
Sat -10% = 19mil
Sun -40% = 11mil for 51mil (-45%drop)?
72mil 5day?
185mil (1.98x)10day total?
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13 minutes ago, Subzero said:
This sounds promising ... at least for china ...
O.S the film seem to be doing fine as it had a 17.5mil international Monday.
If things keep up then it should be over or close to 325mil Foreign by Monday.
If So then I’ll say 450 is the floor.
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6 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:
It's insane how much BVS dropped both domestic and overseas after such huge opening. It was dropping like a rock everywhere, everywhere. It was crazy.
JL really needs to get a better word of mouth for its own sake.
it has better W.O.M but not extremely better W.o.M.
Ill take its Twitter Ratio over BVS any day
2:1 vs 6:1
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6 minutes ago, Deja23 said:
MT
1. JL 30.7%
2. Wonder 17.6%
3. Coco 11.6%
4. Thor 9.7%
5. MOTOE 6%
JL really haven’t budged all day.
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11 minutes ago, YSLDC said:
BvS in first Monday
"Huge $31M intl #EasterMonday for #BatmanvSuperman pushing intl cume to $287.5M & global to $468M in under 1 week. May hit $500M today!"
I just realized for the rest of the week JL will be above BVS Dailies (🤣).
If BVS Monday included N/A Then JL is running ahead in the Foreign markets with no Holiday.
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18 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
If it is 320 by Sunday then it would have made 135 for the whole week. Giving 50% week on week falls gets it to 450-460 OS final. It would then need 240-250 Dom to get it to 700. So I wouldnt call 700 the floor IMO it still remains the target.
This film may end closer to 500mil foreign than many people realized(the coming days will tell us more).
I Say 700mil is the floor as the film should earn closer to 475 IMO .
Thats slightly under MJ2 Multiplier as I don’t think the two films Multipliers are gonna be much different . lm pretty sure 225 is the floor(at the moment).
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1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:
26.7 avg (5pm)
How does that compare to the rest of the Thanksgiving Amnimated films ?
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8 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
JL OS could be at 320 by end of Sunday assuming a 50% weekend fall. Guessing OS weekday drops is very difficult so I could be wildly off.
If JL can be 175/325=500 then 700mil will be the floor.
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10 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
If that number includes China and SK monday and tuesday then JL made about 8.85 in remaining markets on Monday. If it doesnt include the Tuesday numbers for both of these markets then JL made about 18.7 from all OS markets on Monday (5.35 from China+SK alone)
I’m not sure but I will say if it doesn’t include SK and China’s Tuesday then 18.7mil International day is good for the film as the film will have a 26mil day when adding N/A Monday total.
Im pretty sure it includes China’s Monday but don’t know about the Tuesday.
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6 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:
According to Scott Mendelson JL has made 305 million worldwide, so far.
So 17 mil overseas Monday?
does anyone knows how much it made on Monday ?
That will help us predict where it’s foreign total will be on Monday.
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7 minutes ago, Olive Skywalker said:
12-15% drop on Wednesday is normal.
Its second wenkend newcomers are not strong just like Thor, but unlike Thor the 3rd weekend of JL will have no big movies.
So It probably will have 2.0-2.1X multiplier
1.99x=102
2x=103
2.1=108
Ill take either.
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23 minutes ago, Noctis said:
Even if it's over $300m OS this weekend, it's opened in EVERY single territory. It will finish with $450m OS.
By the way if you believe it will finish with 450 OS then there’s a chance it can go above that as The Domestic total should be over 225.
So 700mil ww isn’t off the table yet.
you didn't go a dime below 400m dom (or was it 450m...or maybe 500m...can't remember) before thu previews came out.
Asgardian Tuesday Numbers - JL 10.7M | W 5.7M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Remember it will come close to covering a 2x on Sunday (if my predicted numbers holds up).
I think most of you just wrote the film off to quickly IMHO.