Brainiac5
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Posts posted by Brainiac5
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2 minutes ago, Noctis said:
Even if it's over $300m OS this weekend, it's opened in EVERY single territory. It will finish with $450m OS.
Opening in markets isn’t a way to determines what the film makes.
I said 300mil but in reality it should be well above that (if things are going ok-good in the markets)
if all is going ok-good then JL should be pushing 400mil coming out of weekend #3.
Reception is better than BVS so hopefully it has a reasonable Overseas Multiplier.
BVS 256/544=2.12x
The Same Multiplier gives JL 400mil foreign.
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2 minutes ago, Barnack said:
635m do sound quite low for a movie making around 100m in China....
I think WW or IT profit alone would cover even the worst case scenario lost of 100m in profit, 50m profit is a movie like Captain Philips, 100m in profit is a movie like Superbad (it did 120m in profit between the studios and talents), Hancock made 200m in profit between Will Smith and the studio.
WB operating income (gross profit) in 2016 were of 1,700 millions.
This is why I say the film has a shot at 700mil.
185 foreign so far let’s see if it’s well 300mil by Monday.
It needs to earn 115mil to cross the mark .
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5 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:
Average.
Can this get a 1.99x there for 100mil flat?
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1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:
Where do you believe the film will be after this weekend ?
if it does Giesth prediction of 130 full week then it’s already will be at 130+185=315ww w/O the foreign weekday totals and weekend totals.
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1 minute ago, Brainbug said:
That one is japan if im not mistaken and japan doesnt care about superheros. dont expect more than 5-10M there.
I really have a hard time seeing this film topping out at 400mil since it already has 185mil.
The film should be over 300 foreign after This Weekend.
If Things are goong right then it should be 300mil heading into the weekend.
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2 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:
The Amazing Spider Man made 757 million worldwide, 5 years ago.
The Amazing Spider Man 2 made 708 million worldwide, 3 years ago.
There's a chance JL fails to make these numbers ( without being adjusted ). It's terrible, because I loved the movie. However, you can't take the audience for granted. MOS ( which I liked ), BVS and SS were very divisive movies that scared way too many people. It's obvious that the same people won't come back to Justice League. Perhaps they would come back, if the movie had had a high tomatometer on RT, but it failed at that too, unfortunately. Not that I think people should read RT or not before going to the cinema, but it played a big part.
After this weekend we will see if 700mil is off the table or not.
If it’s well over 500mil then 700mil is the floor if it’s not then 700might be a challenge.
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2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:
That's a very week analysis when it's biggest OS market by far is China and it's not even gonna touch a x2 multiplier there.
It only needs 102 for a 2x there but it’s opening was 10mil higher that FB there.
JL still has one more major market to go.
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10 minutes ago, XO21 said:
lol
such a sleeper hit
6 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said:
We have to take off our Fanboy glasses here and understand these films have to be successful first above all else.
I much rather a break Even situation then a lose money one.
I much rather 700-750 than 600-650.
The good thing about JL is that it open with the same number overseas as FB (when I add China)Now it’s not going to get a 3x like that film but it damn sure can get a 2.5-2.6x.
Not a Homerun hit but respectable.
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7 minutes ago, Subzero said:
At this rate I don't see 750m happening to be honest... Im just happy if it breaks 700m
We have to see what it’s Foreign total is going to be. 2.6x will give it 243 mil Domestic apply the same Multiplier to the foreign market and its 481 with one more major market to open in so it can sway 10mil up.
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35 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:
$250M-$260M?!
250-260 makes me happy if true.
Right now JL has A 33.7% to a 66.3% WW Ratio
apply that same ratio to that domestic total
And it’s 500mil foreign.
We May have just jumped the gun on JL.
Only time will tell.
Missing 100mil hurt the film chances at 300 Domestic.
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5 minutes ago, Rumpot said:
66.9% drop
I hope this film has it in it to earn 700-750ww.
As it could be seen as a underperformance rather than a flop.
BVS underperformed But didn’t flop if JL can at the very least Earn the same title I THINK THINGS will be fine going forward.
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33 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:
TUE
after service fees
Justice League - 26.7m / 403.2m
Orient Express - 3.3m / 207.2m
Thor: Ragnarok - 3.15m / 722mGood or
bad?
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1 hour ago, RamblinRed said:
Unfortunately, that is a poor number for JL. Last 10 years the avg drop on Thanksgiving week Monday is -63.6% with the worst being a -65% drop. Will be interesting to see the rise today. Last 3 years the avg Tuesday increase is almost 34% with a 20% increase on Wednesday. Anything less than a 31-32% increase today would be very worrisome.
I think Coco has a good chance of beating out JL, not just for the weekend but for total DOM.
if it wasn't for Wonder i would think a possible big break out as Pixar movies tend to be driven more by reviews than marketing. I'm thinking somewhere close to $50MM for the 3-day and close to $70 for the 5 day. I'm sort of expecting it to follow Moana pretty closely.
It will probably help that is has the new Frozen short attached to it. That is a big thing in the US and I think just having that short might add a couple of million to its OW totals.
Yeah ,Things are looking worse as the days go on
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3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
Right on target then, low end even. Good.
Where is JL likely to end up?
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3 minutes ago, YourMother said:
Maybe. I can see night shows being stronger.
Deadline are never good with these numbers but we just have to wait and see.
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10 minutes ago, Diana Prince said:
I really do hope that it can do the 60-65 million over five days. If that is combined with about 15 million for today and tomorrow, then we are talking ~170/175 by Sunday. Next weekend, it could make -20. That would put it on track to make ~250. A far cry from the expectation, but not a complete disaster.
By the way, I trust Rth more than that Deadline guy. If Rth says 6-7 million, then take it to the bank.
Im praying he says 8-9 which would make a 63%drop safe .
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7 minutes ago, YourMother said:
West Coast matinees are about to end and East Coast just started the night shows so there’s still hope it goes up.
It needs about 8.14mil to be on par with FB and MJ2 .
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8 minutes ago, YourMother said:
Even the Twilight movies have had better Monday drops.
Which is crazy when JL held better on Sat and slightly better on Sun.
could they be anticipating Extramely bad W.O.M.?
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5 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
Yikes if those Monday numbers hold. Would be 69.5-73.5m drop. For reference Fantastic Beasts and both Mockingjay movies had first monday drop in the region of 63-65%
Yeah if it’s not on par with either of those films then it’s bad.
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10 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:
In my opinion, this movie will trail TASM 2 numbers ( domestic and overseas)
TASM 2 opened with 91 million domestic. Adjusted for inflation, 93 million domestic. It ended up with 202 million domestic. If JL performs like BVS, it'll end up with similar numbers.
TASM 2 made 506 million overseas, 3 years ago. Adjusted for inflation, 523 million overseas.
JL will out gross it domestically easily ,I just don’t know about the Overseas Numbers.
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27 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said:
Not one with a $300M budget and with famous as heck source material with the most known superhero characters.
23 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:This.
We are talking about the JL Not a movie like Dr Strange
Two ways JL can go as far as Overseas goes
MJ2 2.57x
FB 3.13x
It should be noted JL and FB has The same opening Number when adding China.
JL opened 11mil in China which made up the differences the other markets and may earn 100mil in China.
JL May not do FB Multiplier but it has a chance to edge out MJ2’s and maybe a little better.
For this time of the Year I wouldn’t rule it out.
Both films faced Star Wars(FB faced the weaker of the two).
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Just now, Mr Impossible said:
Respectable would be $900M+.
Alright would be $800-900M
Let me correct myself ,
Respectable for a CBM.
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4 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:
I like to be optimistic, but this movie won't be making more than TASM 2 worldwide. TASM 2 was weak domestic ( opened with 93 million adjusted and ended up with 202 million ). Overseas however, TASM 2 was a freaking monster and made more than 500 million ( 523 million adjusted ).
Even with these numbers, Sony gave up the TASM series and went on to beg Marvel to help them.
Aquaman is safe, Flash deserves his solo movie, Wonder Woman is getting her sequel, Shazam might get ade ( I hope ). Cavill still has one movie as part of his contract. Not sure about Affleck.
Well it already has 185 foreign so let’s see where it goes from here.
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1 minute ago, Mr Impossible said:
$700m is pretty piss poor for this movie.
But respectable, Sure it’s Should be higher but it shows WB they need to up thier game.
They also need to have better strategy with the release dates.
JL should have had SS release date as The November Release date didn’t pan out.
In order for any of the films they release to get to the full potential they need to focus more on summer release dates and empty months.
China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
in China At The Box Office
Posted
I think someone told me it has no anticipated major release this week so hopefully the film can be well above 80mil after this weekend.